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Smokin’ Aces: All in on Corbin Burnes, Max Scherzer

Corbin Burnes

Corbin Burnes

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

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We lucked out on Kevin Cash being the most ultra conservative person on the planet by pulling Shane Mac with only 81 pitches through seven last night, but we’ll take it. We have a couple of plays on deck for some star-studded aces on the bumpski. Let’s dive in.

*Each play will be labeled (1 through number “X”) to determine how I rank my plays on a daily basis.

Corbin Burnes O/U 7.5 K’s vs. Minnesota Twins (1)

Corb Daddy has been a bit hit or miss in the strikeout department as of late. In his last four outings, he’s either totaled five or 10 punchies. Coming off a disappointing outing against Colorado, it seems like Burnes could get back to business against the Minnesota Twins.

His 149 K’s are fourth most in the MLB, his 2.20 ERA is fifth best, and his 0.93 WHIP is tied for fifth best. It’s safe to say Corbin Burnes is picking up where he left off in 2021 as he pushes to close the gap on Sandy Alcantara for his second consecutive NL Cy Young Award.

The Twins have quite frankly been a pest this year, and believe it or not (George isn’t at home), they don’t strike out a ton. Minny’s 785 punch outs are 10th fewest, while their 21.4% K rate is also 10th fewest. However, they will face arguably the best right-handed pitcher they have seen all year long. This Twins lineup has allowed lesser arms like José Berríos, Lucas Giolito, and Michael Kopech to rack up strikeouts on them. I refuse to say lesser when it comes to Dylan Cease daddy, who picked up an eight piece in his last start against them.

The point is, there is precedent for pitchers to get punch outs on this overachieving lineup. If it makes you feel any better, Burnes has only had less than seven K’s in consecutive starts once all season. Coming off a five-strikeout game, the trend would suggest he’s due for a bit of a bounce back. You know my motto, always give the benefit of the doubt to the power arms.

PREDICTION: Burnes O7.5 K’s (-126)

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Max Scherzer O/U 18.5 outs vs. New York Yankees (2)

BOOM! Take that, Yankees. The Mets picked up a nice fat W to open up the Subway Series. Now they get one of the best pitchers in this generation in Max Scherzer. Not only has Mad Max been butter since he returned from the IL (25.1 IP, 5 ER, 39 K’s), but it’s his birthday. And I refuse to not support the birthday boy.

Scherzer draws this fraud of a Yankees team. I expect him to shove once again. More importantly though, Max has gone at least six innings in his last four starts, and in 10 of 12 this season. Looking at this Total, he would need to get through 6.1 innings tonight to hit the over. Now, of course it’s a little dicey because he very well could be yanked after six, but I’m willing to take that chance.

With guys like Scherzer, they usually get the call to go the extra inning, or at least start it. There aren’t too many, if any, better pitchers this NYY team will see this season. I think he shows out on his birthday for seven strong innings.

PREDICTION: Scherzer O18.5 outs (+110)

Enjoy the taste, cuzzadeech.