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A weekend where elite Mixed Martial Artists and boxers overlap each other has been a regular occurrence this fall season, as fight fans got another two-for-one deal with UFC 269 and Lomachenko vs. Commey on the docket. Let’s take a look at the biggest betting Hits & Misses.
Saturday, UFC 269: Poirier vs. Oliviera
• HIT: Sean O’Malley to win (-325) vs. Raulian Paiva
One of the company’s greatest attractions in “Suga” Sean O’Malley was on display again to kick off another major pay-per-view card. Every move O’Malley makes is highly publicized, and he shined brightly under the lights when he landed a huge right cross to put Paiva on the canvas and then finish the job with a barrage of strikes.
• HIT: Geoff Neal to win (-105) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
A razor-thin decision victory went to Geoff Neal over Ponzinibbio after both men showcased a highly-technical kickboxing match. The fight was a coin toss going into the third rounds, and Neal really hit the gas pedal with a surge of offense after receiving some stern advice from his corner.
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• MISS: Charles Oliviera to win (+110) vs. Dustin Poirier
The Brazilian Superman and UFC lightweight champion, Charles Oliviera, kept the good times rolling as he made another huge statement in his first title defense against one of the greatest lightweights of all-time. Oliviera has felt adversity in his two title fights and has not only survived his opponent’s offensive threats, but he’s been able to thrive and become victorious. On the feet, Poirier had a huge advantage and was going to work in rounds one and two with his elite boxing, but after pivoting his strategy, Oliviera initiated a clinch at the start of the third round that ended up getting Poirier with a rear-naked choke to secure the win. Oliviera, the UFC’s all-time submission leader, has finished nine of his last 10 opponents. A date with Justin Gaethje awaits the Brazilian champion next.
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• MISS: Juliana Pena to win (+550) vs. Amanda Nunes
Not too many analysts were even taking a sniff at Juliana Pena as Nunes - considered one of the greatest Mixed Martial Artists of all-time - was thought to easily rinse and repeat another title defense. Pena had other plans. In the weeks and months leading up to this fight, Pena made it a goal to let the public know that she is not afraid of the “Lioness” and that Nunes had been “ducking” her for years. And after the gutsy performance by Pena, maybe there was something to that pre-fight mental warfare. Pena was unfazed by Nunes’ powerful kickboxing and didn’t give an inch on the feet. Strategically speaking, Pena was willing to take a shot to give a shot to attack Nunes’ weakest aspect of her game – her cardio. It was a great game plan for Pena and team as once Nunes was fatigued (like we’ve never seen her before) Pena was easily able to snatch up a rear-naked choke for one of the biggest upsets in MMA history! I expect the rematch to be in the works shortly.
Saturday, Vasyl Lomachenko vs. Richard Commey
• HIT: Vasyl Lomachenko to win (-800) vs. Richard Commey
The Ukrainian force of nature returned with a near-perfect performance as Lomachenko showcased a masterclass of boxing against a very tough challenger in Richard Commey. Loma was accumulating a ton of shots on Commey up and down, left and right, and Commey seemed lost at times trying to solve the ridiculously hard rubiks cube that is Lomachenko. The super evasive footwork coupled with flurries of combinations from Lomachenko led to the biggest moment of the fight when he landed a devastating knockdown in the seventh round. Loma pointed to Commey’s corner and tried to warn them to throw in the towel.
• MISS: Fight Doesn’t Go The Distance (+200)
As previously mentioned, Lomachenko had Commey badly hurt in the seventh round, but the Ghana native dug deep and not only stayed in the fight, but was able to come out and win the next round. Commey took a good amount of punishment in this fight but was able to hang tough and gain even more respect from the boxing community. Bettors who had Commey going the distance walked away with a nice win.
Stay locked right here for my preview, picks and props for Jake Paul vs. Tyron Woodley 2 and UFC fight Night 199.
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