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Four drivers swept the top 10 at Martinsville Speedway last year and for their effort, they are part of our Best Bets for the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400. But that means another 12 drivers scored one top-10; seven of those drivers were outside the top 15 in the other race, which made this a difficult track to handicap in 2021.
Several drivers came close with a pair of top-15s and they are sprinkled across both the favorites and dark horses for the Blue-Emu 400 this week. Equally important, the NextGen car is adding some names to the list of longshots, so there are some interesting options above the 10/1 range. Unfortunately, no matter how well all of them run, when the checkered flag waves, only 10 drivers will score top-10s.
Martinsville is one of the rhythm tracks – and that means that once a driver finds the right setup and feel for the course, they can rattle off a long string of top-fives and -10s. With COVID-19 heavily impacting the 2020 season and Martinsville’s two races run during the same week – plus the NextGen car in 2022, it’s going to be difficult to figure out exactly what the handicapping formula should look.
Richmond featured a return of veterans, however, and the resurgence of Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) on a course type where they were supposed to run well. That gives bettors and players hope that Martinsville will return to its accustomed nature.
The Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway was a seesaw affair. Long green flag runs contributed to a variety of strategies that all converged at the checkers. Christopher Bell (+1600) ended the race in sixth, which came on the heels of a pair of top-fives on that track in 2021. Martinsville has not been as kind, but he managed to finish in the top 10 in this race last year. On another sportsbook, Bell is listed at +175 to score a top-five and that is a more likely outcome than an outright win.
Should Alex Bowman (+1600) be a favorite? That is a question we’ve been asking at the beginning of the week and we will admit to hedging our bets a little by placing him fourth on this week’s cheat sheet. Part of that enthusiasm came because of his Martinsville win last fall after contact with Denny Hamlin. That was Bowman’s only top-five on this track, but he came close with a pair of sixths in 2020 and a seventh in his first attempt with Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) in 2018. He got pushed into the dark horse category because his 16/1 odds gives him a big upside.
Like one of this week’s Best Bets for a top-10 Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick (+2800) must be judged on his 2022 record instead of his track record. He appears to be one of the early adapters to the NextGen car with three top-10s and a 12th in his last five attempts. We did not get the productivity from him last week that was expected, but he remains our pick as the driver most likely to be the next to earn his first Cup win. When that happens, he will likely come with long odds because his average line so far in 2022 has been a little north of 21/1.
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Last week it appeared Brad Keselowski (+2200) figured something out about this car. It helped that Richmond is also a driver’s track so the aero-dependence is slightly less than what RFK Racing has faced up to this point. Keselowski can drive – and Jack Roush did not achieve the status of a legend without an ability to amass a great organization, but his access to the same level of talent as Gibbs, Hendrick, and Roger Penske has been challenged. Keselowski didn’t get his elusive top-10 last week, but he has finished in the top 15 in his last three starts of 2022.
He has not risen to the same level as Chastain, Chase Briscoe, and Reddick, but Erik Jones (+8000) has shown promise in 2022. He was on our radar last week although he didn’t quite achieve official dark horse status. That was the right choice for Richmond since he finished outside the top 20, but with that out of his system it’s time to look at his three top-10s earned on this track type in 2021. On another book he is listed at +800 for a top-five and this is certainly a safer bet.
He’s not a good pick for the outright win unless you have some money that’s driving you mad, but Austin Dillon (+9000) is listed on another sportsbook with +900 odds to finish in the top five. He’ll need a little luck to achieve that, but not nearly as much as one would suspect because he has top-15s in his last six paved short track attempts. The best of these were a pair of 10ths earned at Richmond, but Dillon had a fourth-place result there in 2020 and a couple of sixth-place efforts on short courses in the past 16 races.
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Dark Horses for the 2022 Toyota Owners 400 (Richmond 1)
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