The wait is over. This weekend, the Daytona 500 kicks off another NASCAR season with one of the least predictable races of the year. NBC Sports’ Predictor returns as well and all it takes to win is to have that perfect balance of ‘lucky’ and ‘good’ the drivers also need to get to the checkers.
When NASCAR implemented stage racing in 2017, they changed how drivers and teams approached each weekend. With race points on the line and a playoff bonus point for winning stages, drivers must decide if it is worth racing hard to win the stage, or if they want to employ some other strategy.
The free-to-play NASCAR Pick ‘Em game is simple to play, but with equally matched drivers in each stage, it’s not always easy to determine who will lead their group. Each week, players pick one of four drivers to finish best in Stage 1, Stage 2, and when the checkers wave.
Participants can compete for weekly cash prizes, with a $10,000 jackpot available for any participants who earn a perfect score. There will also be at least $1,000 awarded each week in guaranteed cash and prizes, even if there is no player with a perfect score.
Editor’s Note: Play for FREE! Download the NBC Sports Predictor app, make picks and win huge, weekly jackpots. Get started here!
Best Finish, Stage 1
Matchup: Harrison Burton, Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr.
Keys: If you’re going to risk a pick on a dark horse, you may as well do it early in the race. While a ‘Big One’ crash can happen at any stage of the Daytona 500, simple mathematics suggests that the longer this race goes on, the more likely it is the field will thin. Harrison Burton is an odd choice, but he is driving for the Wood Brothers, who have an affiliation with Team Penske and that might help keep him safe.
Edge: Harvick. None of these drivers has won a Daytona stage in the past three years and only one segment point separates Harvick from Truex. Harvick gets the edge because he has been less crash-prone in recent years.
Best Finish, Stage 2
Matchup: Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Bubba Wallace
Keys: Stage 2 is stacked with drivers who tend to keep their collective noses clean until the end of the race. Keselowski has more Daytona accidents to his credit overall, but they tend to come in the second half of the event.
Edge: Hamlin. Frankly this is a bit of a toss up between Blaney and Hamlin and when things are equal, we tend to revert to statistics to break the tie. In the past three years, Hamlin has won three Daytona stages to Blaney’s one, but he has only three more segment points to his credit.
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Best Finish, Final Stage
Matchup: Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano
Keys: Drivers must show patience to get to the final stage – and they need a little luck on their side. Get this matchup right and you may just have the winner in your sights, so if you don’t like our top-three listed below, pick a driver from this list. Logano and Busch each have one Daytona win to their credit, while the two Hendrick Motorsports drivers are still seeking their first.
Edge: Elliott. We’re going with Elliott on this pick. He’s finished second in his last two Daytona starts and came within a bumper of winning last year’s Daytona 500.
Top-three, Race Results
It’s hard to bet against Hamlin at Daytona. He has the most wins among active drivers with three and is one of only two racers competing this week with more than one on this track. Harvick is next on that list with two, so we’ll put him in the runner-up position for now with Blaney rounding out the top three.
Segment Points and Wins,
Daytona, Last 3 Years
Driver | Segment | Segments | Segment |
70 | 12 | 4 | |
49 | 7 | 3 | |
48 | 7 | 2 | |
46 | 8 | 1 | |
38 | 5 | 1 | |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr./span> | 37 | 7 | |
33 | 6 | 1 | |
29 | 6 | ||
29 | 4 | ||
27 | 3 | ||
24 | 5 | ||
Martin Truex Jr./span> | 23 | 4 | |
22 | 4 | ||
18 | 3 | ||
16 | 4 | ||
16 | 2 | ||
15 | 4 | ||
15 | 3 | ||
15 | 3 | ||
15 | 2 | ||
13 | 5 | ||
12 | 3 | ||
11 | 2 | ||
10 | 2 | ||
7 | 2 | ||
7 | 1 | ||
6 | 1 | ||
4 | 1 | ||
3 | 2 | ||
1 | 1 | ||
1 | 1 |
