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Road America is the second consecutive race that will host its second event in the Modern Era. Road courses are not like ovals, however, and strategies get tricky. Drivers who think they can win the final stage often short pit before the first two segments are in the books, so they line back in positions relative to where they were running. That leaves the door open for some drivers to roll the dice and earn extra points.
For more data on stage points earned in 2022, be sure to read “Stage Presence”.
When NASCAR implemented stage racing in 2017, they changed how drivers and teams approached each weekend. With race points on the line and a playoff bonus point for winning stages, drivers must decide if it is worth racing hard to win the stage, or if they want to employ some other strategy.
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Participants can compete for weekly cash prizes, with a $10,000 jackpot available for any participants who earn a perfect score. There will also be at least $1,000 awarded each week in guaranteed cash and prizes, even if there is no player with a perfect score.
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Best Finish, Stage 1
Matchup: Kurt Busch, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Alex Bowman
Keys: Drivers who want to flip the stages are more likely to stay out in the first one to gain points. As the race winds down, starting up front for the final segment is much more important, so there is a bigger likelihood that the strongest drivers will excel here.
Edge: Byron. All four of these drivers are strong on road courses, but Byron was the biggest beneficiary of the early strategies last year. He finished second in Stage 1 to Tyler Reddick and won Stage 2.
Best Finish, Stage 2
Matchup: Daniel Suarez, AJ Allmendinger, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr.
Keys: Stage 2 sets the drivers up for the final run to the checkers and this week the first two segments make up slightly less than half the race. By pitting early in this stage, drivers can divide the race into fourths and run to about Lap 46. Conventional wisdom says the first racer to pit is most often in the driver’s seat.
Edge: Larson. It didn’t work out for him, but Larson used the same strategy last year at Road America and in the most recent road race at Sonoma Raceway. He stayed out for both stages. He didn’t win a segment on this massive 4-mile course last year, but he earned the third-most stage points.
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Best Finish, Final Stage
Matchup: Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric
Keys: This matchup is between the underdogs and favorite. In the Kwik Trip 250 Cheat Sheet, we have Elliott and Chastain matched up for the win with Blaney and Cindric considered as solid dark horse challengers.
Edge: Elliott. This team tends to beat themselves, but after compounding a loose lug nut at Sonoma with an improper pit stop, they should mind their ‘Ps’ and ‘Qs’ and not do it twice in a row.
Top-three, Race Results
Elliott and Chastain are two of four drivers with top-10s in both road course races this year, so they top the list. Elliott has more experience, so we’ll list him first ahead of the No. 1 team. Larson is third because it’s time to get off the snide on road courses.
Segment Points and Wins, 2022
Driver | Segment | Segment | Segments |
146 | 3 | 23 | |
131 | 2 | 23 | |
127 | 4 | 22 | |
126 | 5 | 18 | |
126 | 2 | 22 | |
124 | 3 | 19 | |
120 | 3 | 17 | |
109 | 1 | 18 | |
95 | 17 | ||
80 | 2 | 14 | |
75 | 2 | 13 | |
59 | 2 | 9 | |
59 | 1 | 9 | |
58 | 12 | ||
58 | 11 | ||
57 | 1 | 11 | |
47 | 12 | ||
45 | 2 | 10 | |
43 | 11 | ||
39 | 1 | 10 | |
37 | 1 | 10 | |
27 | 7 | ||
26 | 6 | ||
26 | 5 | ||
20 | 5 | ||
18 | 5 | ||
14 | 3 | ||
12 | 2 | ||
9 | 1 | ||
7 | 3 | ||
4 | 1 | ||
1 | 1 |
Segment Points and Wins, Road America
Driver | Segment | Segment | Segments |
19 | 1 | 2 | |
17 | 1 | 2 | |
15 | 2 | ||
14 | 2 | ||
9 | 1 | ||
8 | 2 | ||
5 | 1 | ||
5 | 1 | ||
4 | 1 | ||
4 | 1 | ||
3 | 1 | ||
3 | 1 | ||
2 | 1 | ||
1 | 1 | ||
1 | 1 |
NASCAR Predictor:
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