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When team after team ignore the recommendations of tire builders and cautions wave equally for the weak and strong – the net effect on the Power Rankings is often no effect at all.
The AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway was a spin of the wheel. There were comers and goers, but mostly because of mistakes. There were a handful of drivers who experienced clean races, but once the top three are cleared, the Average Running Position and Drivers Ratings were uniformly higher than normal.
That leveled the playing field somewhat, and while it created havoc with the Cheat Sheet accuracy, it did not move the needle very much in terms of our strength-based Power Rankings. A bigger effect was that there was an 11th different winner in 13 races. If there are six more in the final 13 races of the regular season, NASCAR will have to go to the tiebreaking formula, which reverts to points among those with one victory.
Kurt Busch’s and Denny Hamlin’s victories already mean that two drivers in the top 16 in points would not make the show currently. More than anything else, the current parity and standings creates dissonance like we saw two weeks ago at Darlington Raceway. The dustup between William Byron and Joey Logano may be only the tip of the iceberg as the dance card continues to fill and desperation rises.
The period under consideration for this week’s Power Rankings runs from Richmond Raceway through Kansas.
Top 10
1. Chase Elliott (Last week: 1)
Weeks in the top 10: 12
Weeks as #1: 6
Wins: 1 (Dover)
Power Average: 6.33
Elliott’s performance at Kansas is one of the reasons we track strength-based stats. He wasn’t great in the AdventHealth 400, but he was better than 29th and rankings in the teens for Average Running Position and Driver Rating more accurately reflects his strength. His blown tire late in the going, snapped a five-race streak of top-10s.
2. Kyle Busch (Last week: 3) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 9
Wins: 1 (Bristol dirt)
Power Average: 7.09
For the second week, Busch easily had one of the best cars in the field. It’s hard to know if he had a long-run setup on his car, or if they got just a little off with the final adjustment. In any event, Busch earned his sixth top-10 in the last seven races and his third top-five. Joe Gibbs Racing is slowly learning how to adjust the NextGen car, which was apparent by all their drivers landing in the top 10 at Kansas.
3. Christopher Bell (Last week: 2) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 5
Power Average: 7.84
Bell is the highest-ranked winless driver this week and for much of the AdventHealth 400, it appeared he would correct that deficit. He and Tyler Reddick had the strongest cars for most of the race, but he got shuffled back on a couple of late-race restarts. If there is any negative to be said about Bell, it’s that he has a pair of 20-something results in his last 45 days, but one of those came after a penalty and the other was on Talladega Superspeedway.
4. William Byron (Last week: 4)
Weeks in the top 10: 9
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 2 (Atlanta 1, Martinsville 1)
Power Average: 8.33
Byron is another beneficiary of the strength-based stats, but that won’t last long if he does not score a top-10 soon. He padded his numbers with a convincing win at Martinsville Speedway, which came on the heels of a third at Richmond Raceway. Momentum has been lost with far less reason than five consecutive results of 13th or worse.
5. Ryan Blaney (Last week: 5)
Weeks in the top 10: 13
Weeks as #1: 1
Power Average: 9.00
Blaney is one of two drivers ranked in the top five this week without a win, which leads us to believe we could have 13 unique winners in a very short time. That would leave three positions open on points and heighten the sense of urgency. The good news is that Blaney’s solid performance so far this season has him second in the standings, so he is relatively safe until a 16th winner comes along in the regular season.
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6. Kyle Larson (Last week: 9) +3
Weeks in the top 10: 12
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (Auto Club)
Power Average: 9.51
Larson’s “just-send-it” attitude is a direct consequence of his running on dirt as often as he does. The NextGen car is stout, but it has its limits and Larson has overstepped them a time or two. He tried to do that again at Kansas with multiple incidents of wall contact and one of the best saves we’ve seen this year. All that happened as he battled for the lead, however, so that must be encouraging for the No. 5 team.
7. Martin Truex Jr. (Last week: 7)
Weeks in the top 10: 12
Power Average: 9.95
Truex is the third and final winless driver among the Power Rankings top-10. As with Blaney and Bell, it’s highly unlikely he will make it through the regular season without a win, but when it comes, it is likely to be unpredictable. In the past 45 days, Truex has finished between fourth and sixth three times and in the 20s three times. That makes him hard to handicap.
8. Ross Chastain (Last week: 6) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 8
Wins: 2 (Talladega 2; COTA)
Power Average: 10.28
Chastain’s Power Average has been drug down by a pair of 30-something results in his last five races. One was for a blown engine at the Bristol Motor Speedway dirt track and the other for an accident at Darlington Raceway. Three of the previous six races ended in top-five finishes, which leaves Kansas as a sort of tiebreaker. Seventh is not a bad finish, but oddly enough we have grown to expect more from Chastain.
9. Alex Bowman (Last week: 8) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 8
Wins: 1 (Las Vegas 1)
Power Average: 11.13
As we head to the All-star break, the composition of the Power Rankings could change dramatically. There are several drives who make this list based on consistent finishes, but they are not necessarily counted among those with the most raw power. In his last seven races, Bowman has finished worse than 12th only once – because of an accident at Darlington – but he also has only one top-five.
10. Joey Logano (Last week: 10)
Weeks in the top 10: 13
Weeks as #1: 2
Wins: 1 (Darlington 1)
Power Average: 11.68
After crashing in practice last week and being forced to come from the rear of the field, Logano ended the race 17th. The AdventHealth 400 was a seesaw affair, but mostly because of penalties, mistakes, and a badly timed pit stop during a green flag sequence. Logano now has three top-three finishes, but no other top-15s in the past 45 days. That puts some perspective on his aggressive move at Darlington.
Drivers outside the top 10 with wins: Austin Cindric (Daytona 1), Denny Hamlin (Richmond 1), Chase Briscoe (Phoenix 1), and Kurt Busch (Kansas 1)
Dropped from the Top 10
For the third consecutive week, no driver dropped out of the top 10 this week. The two 23XI drivers were the biggest movers with Bubba Wallace jumping six positions from 23rd to 17th and Kurt Busch advancing from 27th to 22nd.
Winners, Last 45 Days (Outright Odds to win)
AdventHealth 400, Kurt Busch (+2000)
Goodyear 400, Joey Logano (+800)
Drydene 400, Chase Elliott (+650)
Geico 500, Ross Chastain (+3000)
Food City Dirt Race, Kyle Busch (+1600)
Blue-Emu 400, William Byron (+750)
Toyota Owners 400, Denny Hamlin (+1200)
EchoPark Grand Prix, Ross Chastain (+1800)
Power Average, Last 45 Days
This | Driver | Power | Last | Difference |
1. | 6.33 | 1 | 0 | |
2. | 7.09 | 3 | 1 | |
3. | 7.84 | 2 | -1 | |
4. | 8.33 | 4 | 0 | |
5. | 9.00 | 5 | 0 | |
6. | 9.51 | 9 | 3 | |
7. | 9.95 | 7 | 0 | |
8. | 10.28 | 6 | -2 | |
9. | 11.13 | 8 | -1 | |
10. | 11.68 | 10 | 0 | |
|
|
|
|
|
11. | 12.89 | 11 | 0 | |
12. | 14.22 | 13 | 1 | |
13. | 14.95 | 12 | -1 | |
14. | 15.42 | 14 | 0 | |
15. | 16.08 | 16 | 1 | |
16. | 16.34 | 15 | -1 | |
17. | 16.74 | 23 | 6 | |
18. | 17.73 | 17 | -1 | |
19. | 17.83 | 18 | -1 | |
20. | 18.19 | 22 | 2 | |
21. | 18.35 | 26 | 5 | |
22. | 18.42 | 27 | 5 | |
23. | 18.64 | 21 | -2 | |
24. | 18.97 | 20 | -4 | |
25. | 19.46 | 24 | -1 | |
26. | 19.59 | 19 | -7 | |
27. | 21.29 | 25 | -2 | |
28. | 21.31 | 28 | 0 | |
29. | 23.20 | 29 | 0 | |
30. | 25.00 | 31 | 1 | |
31. | 25.07 | 32 | 1 | |
32. | 25.20 | 33 | 1 | |
33. | 25.35 | 34 | 1 | |
34. | 25.60 | 35 | 1 | |
35. | 26.21 | 36 | 1 | |
36. | 26.93 | 30 | -6 | |
37. | 28.33 | 37 | 0 | |
38. | 29.97 | 40 | 2 | |
39. | 30.30 | 41 | 2 | |
40. | 30.33 | 42 | 2 | |
41. | 31.12 | 43 | 2 | |
42. | 33.23 | 44 | 2 | |
43. | 33.82 | 46 | 3 | |
44. | 36.10 | 48 | 4 |
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