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Fred VanVleet O/U 6.5 Assists vs. Hawks
In Fred VanVleet‘s (FVV) first game back, he notched eight assists on 13 potential against the Heat in triple-OT.
He has not hit the Over 6.5 assists in four straight games and averaged between 15.5 and 17 potential assists per game in the previous four and five games.
FVV has a positive matchup in his second game versus the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta allows the second-most assists per game to point guards (9.13) and he will need to get his teammate involved the stop the Hawks’ seven-game winning streak.
The Hawks permit nearly 88 field goal attempts per game in the past three and five-game splits, so there should be plenty of opportunities for FVV to notch at least 15 potential assists after going 8-of-13 (61.5%) in his first game back with assists.
Our Player Prop Model predicts FVV at 7.0 assists, hitting the Over. FVV is 7-3 (70%) to the Over 6.5 assists in his last 10 games and six of the previous seven (83.3%). You can take a look at his game log below per statmuse.
Going over Atlanta versus point guards lately, Russell Westbrook had 12 assists, Gabe Vincent totaled nine, Tyrese Haliburton and Terry Rozier recorded seven, plus LaMelo Ball posted six.
That is all over the previous 10 days, so the recent success is there.
VanVleet, in his second game back, should be more fixated on setting up his teammates and getting them going after playing 54 minutes.
FVV has struggled with his shot, going 35% or worse from the field in his last four games and six of seven, so bet on his assists until he gets back on a hot streak scoring.
I got this at -125 odds and would play the Over 7.5 for +100 or better.
Pick: Fred VanVleet Over 6.5 Assists (1u)
Ja Morant O/U 26.5 Points vs. 76ers
Joel Embiid is out for this matchup, so the question is, did Embiid just duck Ja Morant??
Who knows, but Morant is primed for an excellent matchup now.
The Grizzlies star guard and the favorite for the Most Improved Player Award ( ) scored 33, 38, 35, 41, 30 and 34 points in the past six games for 35.1 points per game. He creeps towards MVP stats as the Grizzlies continue to win ball games.
Morant averages 28.6 points per game in January and lately has attempted 22-plus field goal attempts in six straight games. He is getting usage even with Desmond Bane back in the lineup.
Per NBC’s Player Prop Model, Morant is projected to score 26.4 points with Embiid in the lineup, so increase that a few points without the big man.
Our model also predicts Morant to play 33 minutes, which is beneficial because at 33-plus minutes he has hit the Over 17 out of 21 times (81%).
Without Embiid in the paint, I like the chances Morant sees plenty of layups and potential free throws.
In the past five games, the 76ers allow the 10th-most points in the paint per game (49.6), which is worrisome against Morant, who scores 60% of his points in the paint.
The Grizzlies guard also made two or more triples in three straight games and had a stretch of 10-plus free-throw attempts broken with zero in the previous game (Scored 34).
Expect Morant to get to the line often tonight and push the tempo versus an Embiid-less 76ers team.
I played the Over 26.5 at -115 odds and would play it at 27.5 it moves or opt for 30-plus points.
Pick: Ja Morant Over 26.5 Points (1u)
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