Last week’s implosion against the Bengals was one for the ages for Tom Brady and company. After entering halftime with a 17-3 lead, Brady and the Bucs were off to arguably their hottest starts of the season, and saw their early efforts completely undone by the Bengals in the second half. The Buccaneers turned the ball over five times in the 34-23 loss, but a late Russell Gage touchdown saved them from being completely shutout in the second half. Still in the hunt for a playoff spot thanks to playing in a horrible AFC South, Sunday night’s game against the Cardinals has tremendous playoff implications for the Bucs in Week 16.
For the Cardinals, they are just one of many teams playing out the season as they limp toward the finish line. Sitting at 4-10 on the season, and with Kyler Murray lost to a torn ACL, the Cardinals have little to nothing to play for beyond their jobs heading into 2023. Perhaps the one with the most to lose over these next three weeks is head coach Kliff Kingsbury, whose team was underperforming expectations well before losing Murray for the season.
With the Bucs fighting for their playoff lives, and Kingsbury arguably fighting for his coaching future in 2023, this week’s Sunday night tilt holds completely different meanings for the two sides involved.
Before we jump into some of my favorite plays of the week, don’t forget that Sunday night’s matchup between the Buccaneers and Cardinals is free to watch on NBC, so be sure to tune in. And don’t forget to play SN7 on the NBC Sports Predictor app, which is FREE, and offers you a chance to win or split a $100,000 guaranteed jackpot! The app offers other free-to-play games, including contests for the Premier League, MLB, NASCAR, IndyCar and College Football. Download it now and enjoy!
Tom Brady Passing Yards
For all of their struggles, the Buccaneers continue to be one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league. Whether by design or game script, the Bucs are averaging the most pass attempts per game (44.6) and the fourth-most passing yards per game (268.4).
Brady threw for his fourth 300+ yard game this season in last week’s 34-23 loss to the Bengals, and came out scorching in the first half, throwing for 194 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Despite his early success, Brady managed just 118 yards in the second half, throwing one touchdown to two interceptions as the Bucs were unable to sustain their scorching hot start.
The Buccaneers face a Cardinals defense that ranks 20th in the league in passing DVOA (10.0%) per Football Outsiders, but the Cardinals have done a good job at limiting explosive passing attacks.
Through 14 games this season, the Cardinals have allowed just two games of 300+ yards, with one of those games coming in Week 1 against the Chiefs. The other came in Week 7 against the Saints when Andy Dalton threw for 409 yards and three scores, but that could be blamed somewhat on game script. The Cards that game 28-14 at halftime and were up 35-17 heading into the fourth quarter. Dalton and the Saints had to sling it a season-high 47 times just to try and keep it close.
Given the Cardinals’ quarterback situation, and the Bucs currently sitting at 6.5-point favorites, I don’t expect the Bucs to face too much of a negative game script in this one.
With that being said, the Bucs do love to air it out, and Brady is still their best chance at pulling off a much-needed win. While he may not go for 300+ yards, Brady should still turn in a solid outing in primetime.
Pick: 280-299 yards
Colt McCoy Passing Yards
Colt McCoy was knocked from last week’s game against the Broncos early in the second quarter. Currently considered day to day heading into this game, it’s possible McCoy doesn’t even suit up in this one, but even if he does, how much should we expect?
For starters, the Cardinals have been more than comfortable with leaning on James Conner this season. Over the last four weeks, Conner has completely monopolized Arizona’s backfield touches, taking all but four running back carries while rushing for 70-310-3 over that span while also catching 14 passes for 89 yards and another score.
McCoy struggled in his abbreviated outing against the Broncos last week, throwing 21 times for 78 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. Now he faces a stout Buccaneers defense that ranks 10th in passing DVOA (-1.5%) and is allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (194.5).
Since throwing his first pass in Week 10, McCoy ranks 36th in the league among qualified passers in YPA (5.9) and 35th in aDOT (6.4). He’s also second to last in deep ball completion percentage at 18.2%.
The Cardinals are 1-3 in games that have largely featured McCoy (they lost in Week 15 after Kyler Murray exited early in the first quarter). He’s thrown just one touchdown to three interceptions but has been on pace for 30+ passes in each of his four games.
McCoy slinging it 30+ times in this one wouldn’t be surprising, but that usually means short tosses more than explosive playmaking. We’ll pick him to go over 200 yards by a slim margin this weekend.
Pick: 200-219 yards
DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards
Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen DeAndre Hopkins go for 79 yards and 60 yards. The Cardinals No. 1 wideout missed the first six games of the season due to a suspension but has returned to go for 63-713-3 in his first eight games back.
With Kyler Murray under center, Hopkins has been nothing short of dominant since returning, and has a line of 33-328-0 in McCoy-centric games, averaging 11.5 targets per game. Assuming again that McCoy would play on Sunday night, I would expect Hopkins to dominate in target share, but his success won’t come easy.
The Buccaneers are allowing the third-fewest receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers per Football Outsiders (51.5) and are second in DVOA against opposing WR1s (-25.3%). Last week, they shut down Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase for the first half only to see him breakthrough in the last week’s second-half implosion, but you’d expect that from a Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase tandem. It’s a little more surprising if a full-on breakout comes from McCoy/Hopkins.
The under 65 yards prop already feels like it has a good chance of hitting, but Hopkins remains at the top of his game and can create big plays on his own -- evidenced by his 11th-best YPRR (2.26) and his 11 contested catches, which ranked second in the league since his return.
Given his talent and ability to hog targets, I like Hopkins to narrowly surpass the under 65 number the predictor is giving us.
Pick: 65-79 yards
