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NFL lines are tight. Do not let anyone try and convince you otherwise. Finding value on the board takes work.
The good news is NBC Sports EDGE NFL Analysts Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) and Brad Thomas (MrBradThomas) have done the research. They have scoured the stats and found value for you in a handful of NFL games.
Take advantage of their hard work and sweat with them.
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
Tampa Bay @ Dallas Dak Prescott OVER 35.5 Pass Attempts (-125)
Prescott was 10-6 to the Over 35.5 pass attempts last season (62.5%) and our player prop model projects the Cowboys QB for 38.9 pass attempts, so hitting the Over with a few to spare.
Starting QBs were 10-7 to the Over 35.5 and 36.5 (58.8%) versus Tampa Bay last season and I expect Tampa Bay to focus on stopping Elliott and Tony Pollard, the Cowboys’ primary weapons in the backfield.
Prescott had 58 for us last time we bet on him. He may not hit that number this time but I feel comfortable playing this number up to 36.5 Pass Attempts.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati Joe Mixon UNDER 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Did you know that Joe Mixon has recorded four or fewer receiving yards in his last five meetings versus the Steelers?
Mixon is 6-2 to the Under in his career versus Pittsburgh and finished 2021 at 10-6 to the Under 18.5 receiving yards last season and 10-4 in the first 14 games.
With Myles Jack and Devin Bush likely keying on Mixon, I expect the Bengals back to go Under his receiving total. There is some wiggle room with this number as I believe it is playable all the way down to Under 14.5 yards.
Minnesota vs. Green Bay Minnesota +2.5 (-115)
Aaron Rodgers has been a fade in his career when he is a road favorite in Minnesota. ATS wise, he is only 2-6 ATS at the Vikings when favored and now, he has arguably the weakest offense during his time at Green Bay.
The Viking’s offense is entering its best situation in years with a new HC and OC, while the Packers’ defense could be the strength of the team.
I expect this to be a close game. A short home dog in Week 1 divisional play is normally the way to go. Divisional underdogs are 28-9-1 ATS in the last 38 Week 1 games.
Watch late line movement here. This is playable to Vikings +1.
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Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
Tampa Bay at Dallas Dalton Schultz OVER 4.5 receptions (-130)
Sunday night features a rematch of last year’s instant classic, which saw the Buccaneers outlast the Cowboys in a 31-29 thriller. Dak Prescot threw the ball 58 times in that game, targeting Dalton Schultz on six occasions. Throughout the season, Schultz was targeted 104 times (6.11 per game). Tampa Bay last season was fifth worst against the tight end position allowing over six catches per game. With only two drops on the season, Schultz is a reliable chain mover for the Cowboys and should hit his over 4.5 reception mark.
Jacksonville at Washington Christian Kirk OVER 4.5 receptions (-140)
Everyone is expecting a big step forward for second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The biggest improvement needs to come in terms of decision-making and accuracy. 59% is a mark Lawrence does not want on his resume.
So how do you make your young quarterback comfortable? Go out and get him a quality wide receiver. Enter Christian Kirk. Often targeted in his lone preseason game, Kirk racked up five catches. Christian Kirk‘s role will be different in Jacksonville. Expect the Jaguars to look to get the ball in Kirk’s hands often.
New England at Miami Dolphins -3.5 (-105)
Going toe-to-toe with Bill Belichick as a first-year coach is no easy feat. Luckily for Mike McDaniel, he inherited a solid team. A team that won nine games. Their weakness was undoubtedly on offense. That is something McDaniel can fix. Coming from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, he will get the most out of Tua Tagovailoa and brand-new toy Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins have had the Patriots’ number of late covering the spread four of the last five times they have met. A factor in that stat is the fact the Patriots have struggled in the heat and humidity of Miami.
Enjoy the games and enjoy the sweat!
Editor’s Note: Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.