It’s amazing what one poor performance can do to a team’s perception in the NFL.
Just four days ago, bettors came out of the woodwork to bet the Chicago Bears as 6 or 6.5-point road underdogs at the Los Angeles Rams. Bookmakers around the country reported ridiculous bet splits and some shops said 75 to 80 percent of their spread bets were on Chicago.
“This is a rare situation where we’re rooting for the primetime favorite,” PointsBet Sportsbook senior sports analyst Andrew Mannino told NBC Sports on Monday afternoon.
The Rams silenced the Bears and won pretty easily 24-10.[[ad:athena]]
Fast forward to Friday and the script has completely flipped on the Bears. Chicago is now a five-point underdog at home against New Orleans and nobody wants a piece. Bettors are too traumatized from Monday night. The lookahead number was Saints -2.5, PointsBet opened Saints -4 on Tuesday and now they’re dealing Saints -5. And guess what – over 70 percent of the spread bets are on New Orleans.
“I’m going to let them keep betting it up and I’ll be on the Bears,” one professional bettor told NBC Sports. “They’ll make adjustments on offense and their defense will keep them around. They’re a different monster at home. Don’t forget, it’s a warm weather team going into Chicago in November.”
That’s an approach that I truly respect. There’s somebody who does this for a living that understands the weekly ups and downs in the NFL. No team is as good or bad as their last game. It’s amazing to me that everybody was willingly betting on a team as 6-point road underdogs, but they’re terrified of the same exact team as a 5-point home underdog in the same week.
Drew Brees is also a 41-year-old quarterback that’s about to play his first game in the elements this year. The Saints have played six games this season, all of them in domed stadiums. I expect it to take time for Brees and his pass heavy offense to adjust to 30 degree weather and 20 mile per hour winds this Sunday on the Lakefront.
Be careful betting against the Bears because you watched them struggle on national television. That’s a lazy handicap. They’re an undervalued team catching five points at home with an incredible defense.
Just ask Tom Brady and the Bucs, they found out the hard way.
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