NFL 2021 Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett +550
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Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett +550
The Cleveland Browns Myles Garrett has been a player on the rise each year since entering the league. Garrett recorded three consecutive seasons with 10.0 or more sacks and 42.5 in his first four years.
Entering 2021, Garrett sports the second-best odds to win Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) behind the Los Angeles Rams Aaron Donald (+400).
Since 2011, this award has gone to a front-seven player nine of the past 10 seasons, with Stephon Gilmore in 2019 being the lone defensive back to win.
Three separate linebackers won in the previous decade, but I still favor the defensive lineman position despite Donald and Watt being the only two that won since 2006, per pro-football-reference.
Considering the odds courtesy of PointsBet, there are only a few players worth a bet, in my opinion.
Outside of Garrett, Donald is always a good bet with his recent history. Jalen Ramsey at +2800 is appealing as the best cornerback and lockdown defender on one of the best defenses.
Darius Leonard at +3300 could be the leading tackler of the NFL and lead the Colts defense to a stellar year.
Heck, even Garrett’s teammate Jadeveon Clowney sits at +6600 has some value. I have a hard time believing Clowney won’t have 10-plus sacks opposite of Garrett as the new and one of the most intriguing 1-2 punches in the league for the upcoming season.
Garrett finished sixth in the NFL last season with 12.0 sacks in 14 games and 10.0 sacks in 10 games during his 2019 campaign. That is 22.0 sacks in his last 24 games or 0.91 sacks per game -- and he has only played one 16-game season in his NFL career.
That lone 16-game season in 2018, Garrett had a career-high 13.5 sacks giving him for 35.5 sacks in 40 games or 0.88 per game over the past three seasons.
At that rate, Garrett should have somewhere in the neighborhood 14.0-15.5 sacks if he plays 17 games based on his averages over the previous three seasons.
Donald won the award with 13.5 sacks in 16 games last season, 20.5 sacks in 2018 over 16 games and 11.0 sacks in 14 games in 2017.
Donald played 16 games in all but one season of his seven-year career thus far and owns the third-most sacks in NFL history through seven seasons with 85.5 -- dating back to 1982.
Garrett’s 42.5 sacks through four seasons are nothing to scoff at. If he posts three 13.5 sack seasons or better in the next three years, he will right up there with Donald, which is possible with one more game added to the schedule.
Per the NFL’s NextGenStats, Donald posted 79 total disruptions and posted a 2.6% sack rate and 15.5% disruption rate.
Garrett totaled 70 disruptions in fewer games than Donald and recorded a 2.7% sack rate and 16.7% disruption rate, both higher than Donald’s.
Garrett also is a monster when it comes to turnovers. Per Nick Shook of NFL.com, Garrett recorded the most turnovers forced on pressures (seven) in the entire NFL. He had five alone in Weeks 3 and 4 versus Washington and Dallas.
Last season Garrett totaled a career-high four forced fumbles and two recoveries. In his four-year career, Garrett has 10 forced fumbles and three recoveries.
I predict a 14.0 sack season with a combined five-plus total fumbles forced and recovered. Garrett should remain among the league leaders in disruptions, quarterback pressures and more with Clowney on the other side.
Garrett will see fewer double teams, thanks to Clowney. As a result, Garrett should have more sack and turnover opportunities for the Browns defense this season.
NBC’s future model has followed Garrett’s value throughout the offseason. After opening at +650 and then moving to +600 -- the current +550 is the lowest value thus far as money is continually coming in on the Browns defensive lineman.
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If Garrett plays 16 or 17 games, he should be a top-three contender for Defensive Player of the Year. I will settle with him as opposed to Donald yet again and hedge throughout the season if necessary.
Pick: Myles Garrett to win Defensive Player of the Year (1u)
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