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We’re back with the Week 5 edition of the NFL Betting Cheat Sheet. This week we have our first London game of the season and a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game. Game Odds powered by PointsBet. Updated Live Odds here.
New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) Total: 45
The Jets and Falcons kick off this year’s NFL London Games this week. The Jets are looking to string together back-to-back wins. The Falcons on the other hand are looking to improve on a 3-8 ATS record as favorites since 2019. Just like last week, this number is moving in the Jets’ favor. I think it will be the same result this week. Edge: Jets +2.5
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Carolina Panthers (-3) Total: 45
The Panthers will look to get back on the winning track when they host the Eagles this Sunday. Carolina is a better team than Philadelphia, but the Eagles have played well at times this season. This game opened up with the Eagles as a four-point underdog. So far this season, road underdogs are 25-14 ATS (64%). I would buy the hook and get the Eagles at +3.5 for this game. Edge: Eagles +3.5
Green Bay Packers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+3) Total: 50.5
The Packers go on the road looking to win their fourth straight game while Joe Burrow and the Bengals try to get their third straight victory. Normally I tend to fade short road favorites, but the Packers are a different case. Since 2019 the Packers are 7-2 on the Money Line as road favorites. I’m not saying to bet the Packers on the Money Line, but at -3 I feel pretty safe. I would even consider parlaying the Packers at -2.5 with the Eagles at +3.5. Edge: Packers -3
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New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans (-9.5) Total: 39.5
This is a tough game to handicap. Money is too hard to come by to lay 9.5 points with the Patriots. The same concept applies when it comes to backing a Davis Mills-led Texans team. Your best bet is to leave this game on the board. If I was to play it I would play the Under. The Under has cashed in the Patriots’ last six road games. Edge: Under 39.5
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) Total: 48.5
I have been going back and forth on this game this week. At one point, I felt like the Jaguars could rally as a unit. Not like a “win one for the Gipper” rally but a rally as a team. On the other hand, the Titans should come into Jacksonville and really beat up on their division rivals. I am going with the Titans. Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in their last five divisional road games. Edge: Titans -4.5
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings (-10) Total: 49
This one could get ugly for the Lions, but something about laying double-digits with Kirk Cousins doesn’t sit right with me. The Vikings are not good on defense, but the Lions have not been able to score over 17 points since week one. I tend to lean towards divisional underdogs, but Jared Goff on the road is a scary thought. Edge: Lions Team Total Under 20.5
Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) Total: 39.5
At first glance I was shocked to see that the Steelers were the favorites in this game. Then I remembered Drew Lock was likely going to get the start for the Broncos. Don’t even attempt to bet this game on the spread. The Steelers can’t score and will really struggle to score this week against a stingy Broncos defense. Edge: Steelers Team Total Under 20.5
Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) Total: 48
I am not the biggest fan of backing such a big public favorite, but the Dolphins are really tough to watch with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. So far this season home favorites of 10 or more points are 4-1 ATS. Edge: Buccaneers -10
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New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Football Team (+2.5) Total: 43.5
The Saints really let me down last week vs. the Giants. I think this week’s game will be very competitive, but I don’t see the Saints losing back-to-back weeks against NFC East teams. This game will come down to a kick. Washington’s defense has been horrible. This is a get right spot for the Saints offense. Edge: Over 43.5
Chicago Bears vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) Total: 44
Earlier this week the Bears announced that rookie Justin Fields will remain their starting quarterback. In his third start of the season Fields will lead the Bears into Vegas to face the Raiders. PointsBet opened this game up with the Raiders as 5.5-point favorites. That number has held steady despite heavy betting on the Raiders. It hurts my soul to put my hard-earned money on the Bears, but the Raiders are allowing opponents to rush for over 132 yards per game on the season. Under Jon Gruden the Raiders are 3-4 ATS as home favorites. Edge: Bears +5.5
Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) Total: 47
This is probably the toughest game to handicap on the week. The look-ahead line on this game had the Browns as a 1.5-point favorite. Cleveland is playing their second straight road game this week. Last week they scored an impressive victory over the Vikings. This week PointsBet opened this game up with the Chargers as a one-point favorite; they have since been bet up to a 2.5-point favorite. This will be a tough game, but the smart bet is to take the points with the Browns. Edge: Browns +2.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) Total: 49
The Total on this game is in an absolute free fall. It opened up at 53.5 on PointsBet and has since dropped to 49. I don’t want to suggest taking the worst of the number, but since 2019, 57% of NFC West games finish Under the Total. Edge: Under 49
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) Total: 52
The New York Giants will try to win their second straight road game this week when they face their division rivals. The Cowboys are the only team in the league that is undefeated ATS. Dak Prescott is 6-3 ATS against the New York Giants. Edge: Cowboys -7.5
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3) Total: 56.5
Football Night in America treats us to a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game. The look-ahead line on this game had the Chiefs as a 4.5-point favorite. The Bills have looked impressive this season, but they have yet to be challenged. They will be on Sunday night. I think the Chiefs will win a high-scoring game, but I’m not willing to back them on the spread so I will take the Over. This game features the highest Total so far this season. Edge: Over 56.5
