Welcome to the Sunday Prop Shop.
Every weekend, we’ll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. All prop bets will be tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up. Let’s go.
Mike Glennon Over 195.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Glennon may not be who the Giants want to see under center this week but 195 passing yards is a wildly low number for an immobile quarterback who’s a double-digit underdog this week. Glennon has hovered around this number in his two starts for the Giants but he routinely surpassed 200 in his five starts with the Jags. He hit at least 211 yards in four of five starts last year and went three-of-four in his time with the Bears. If it’s even possible, Glennon also matches up well with the Dallas secondary. He is ranked 10th in target depth and faces a Cowboys defense allowing the fifth-most passing plays of 20 or more yards.
Tim Patrick Under 3.5 Receptions (-136)
Jerry Jeudy returned to this team in Week 8 and Patrick has mostly disappeared in the following games. With Jeudy back, Patrick is averaging 2.5 receptions for 36.5 yards per week. He has topped 3.5 receptions once in six games. With plenty of mouths to feed in Denver, Patrick is an easy player to take the under on.
Davis Mills Under 5.5 Rushing Yards (-150)
Mills has topped this prop once in seven starts but beat it last week and as a backup in the Week 13. Looking at his entire “body of work,” it’s easy to see how he returns to falling short of six yards. Mills has just four rush attempts in his seven starts, all of which were scrambles that went for five or fewer yards. On the year, he’s averaging 2.4 yards per carry on scrambles and designed runs.
Jamison Crowder Under 45.5 Receiving yards (-115)
With Elijah Moore and Corey Davis out last week, Crowder was expected to step into a larger role for the receiver-needy Jets. Instead, it was Braxton Berrios who led the team in targets. Crowder saw a 15 percent target share and 17 percent air yards share. He was tied with two other receivers at six targets apiece but even Ty Johnson saw more targets than him. With Zach Wilson averaging just 211 passing yards per game (removing one early exit), there’s not enough volume to get a secondary receiver over 45.5 yards.
D’Onta Foreman Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Foreman has been the Titans’ leading running back by carries in the past four games but the results have been lackluster for all but one outing. He has only seen 39 percent of the team’s carries since taking over, splitting reps with Jeremy McNichols and Dontrell Hilliard most recently. Foreman is one-of-four at beating 55 yards in those games and over half of his 209 rushing yards in this role came in one game. New England conceded the ground game to Tennessee while blowing them out and both Hilliard and Foreman crossed the century mark.
Last Week: (2-3), -1.3 units
Season: 27-38, -13.2 units
