Sunday Prop Shop Week 9: Buy Spot for Tua Tagovailoa
Welcome to the Sunday Prop Shop.
Every weekend, we’ll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. All prop bets will be tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up. Let’s go.
Tua Tagovailoa Over 240.5 Passing Yards
Tagovailoa has split his four full games on this prop but a date with Houston should shade him toward the over. Because the Texans have been stomped by nearly every one of their opponents, teams rarely take full advantage of the 8.1 yards per pass attempt they are allowing. With Tyrod Taylor back under center, Houston is only 5.5 dogs to Miami. In a modestly competitive affair against a horrible defense, Tua is set up for a big day.
Boston Scott Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Eagles are getting a lot of credit for becoming a more balanced team in recent weeks but much of that shift can be explained by one drubbing of the Lions. Before Week 8, they were an above-average team in pass rate before considering that many of their pass plays ultimately result in runs via Jalen Hurts scrambles.
Myles Gaskin Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (+100)
Gaskin has topped this rushing prop just twice in eight appearances this year. His odds of hitting it go up versus the Texans but it’s unlikely that the good matchup bridges the gap between his 34.9 weekly average and this number. Vegas is also giving Houston a far better chance of winning this game than nearly any other contest they have played in this year. With the line dropping to Miami -5.5, this spread would be the second-closest game the Texans have played this year. At even odds, the under is showing value in this spot.
Darrel Williams Under 48.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Williams is averaging 43.7 rushing yards in three starts but the Chiefs shook up their backfield by including Derrick Gore in the rotation last week. Williams ceded 11 carries to Gore and saw exactly half of the team’s carries. In his two previous starts, Williams’ backups had combined for three carries. With Williams firmly in committee-back territory, his unders are all in play this week.
Darrell Henderson Over 2.5 Receptions (+135)
Henderson’s season-long average sits at 2.3 and that number is slightly skewed by a few weak performances from his opponents. In the four games where Los Angeles didn’t beat their opponents by double-digits, Henderson’s average jumps to three. In games that exceed a 50-point total, Henderson also averages a trio of receptions. A match with a touchdown spread and a 52.5-point total should propel Henderson past his line.
Last Week: (3-2), +.6 units
Season: 16-24, -10.4 units