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Trevor Lawrence O/U 1.5 Interceptions vs. Bengals
Through three games, the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL leads the league in interceptions with seven. He has tossed five scores and 669 yards in those three contests, but the speed of the game has proved difficult for Lawrence.
The Jaguars quarterback has thrown two or more interceptions in each of his first three starts.
Lawrence’s interception prop for this TNF matchup versus the Bengals is O/U 1.5 interceptions with the Under at -155 or O/U 0.5 with the Under at +164.
NBC’s player prop model projects Lawrence to post 0.8 interceptions, so roughly one in his first career NFL primetime game.
Rookie head coaches and quarterback duos can often struggle in primetime, but something about the way Lawrence talked about wanting his first win struck me.
Lawrence is a winner. There is no doubt about that, but his three-game start is concerning. However, I like Lawrence’s chances of tossing 0-1 interceptions this week compared to 2-3 like the previous three weeks.
Cincy has three interceptions in three games, picking off Bears’ rookie Justin Fields once and the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger twice on his 58 pass attempts.
The Bengals played a very physical game Sunday against the Steelers, attempting to embarrass them at Heinz Field (they did). This is a major potential letdown spot for the Bengals after riding that high and having a short turnaround to recoup, especially on the defensive end.
The Bengals’ secondary is a young group that features only Chidobe Awuzie and Jessie Bates as players who recorded at least one interception last season.
Trae Waynes did not play in 2020 and Eli Apple lasted one game, while Von Bell played in 16 games and did not record one interception.
I like the chance Lawrence can clean up his act in Week 4 on primetime as the Jaguars attempt to earn their first win of the season. Cincy recorded two or more interceptions in two of the last 19 regular-season games dating back to Week 1 of 2020.
Pick: Trevor Lawrence Under 1.5 Interceptions (1u)
NBC’s game projection model shows value on the Bengals’ ML and low confidence on the spread and O/U 45.5.
This game could be a snoozer and if I was picking a side, I would lean with the 0-3 Jaguars as their first win is not out of the question here. However, our model does not have strong pick on either side and neither do I.
NBC’s player prop model shows excellent, great or good value on three different players props: Joe Mixon, Laviska Shenault Jr and Ja’Marr Chase. It appears receiving yards could be of value between the Bengals and Jaguars all three have very different projected numbers than their prop lines.
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