Patriots’ Fans, let’s build a parlay for Super Bowl LX.
The key to cashing a parlay is to correlate the legs. The game script will obviously be different than the AFC Championship if for no other reason than the weather will allow for so much more of the playbook to be utilized. With that in mind, how you expect the game to play out. Will Drake Maye be asked to do more than he has to date in the playoffs? How much will the Seattle defense affect Maye in the pocket? Can they keep the mobile quarterback in the pocket?
Lets proceed under the assumption that even if the Patriots do not win, that they cover the spread of 4.5. Next, lets settle on a game script. What needs to happen for Drake Maye and co. to win the Lombardi Trophy?
Let’s acknowledge from the jump it will be difficult if not impossible for the Patriots to run the ball with much success. Seattle’s defense is No. 1 in the NFL allowing a mere 3.8 yards per rushing attempt this season. That said, Opponents targeted running backs on 21.2% of passes against Seattle this season. The Seahawks were the only team in the NFL with a target rate over 20%. The result? Seattle’s defense allowed a league-high 7.5 running back targets per game.
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Understanding those numbers, lets begin:
Leg 1: Rhamondre Stevenson 24+ Receiving Yards (-113)
Stevenson is a volume back for New England. He does not break many runs or receptions, but he gets enough yards in small chunks to warrant more touches. Yes, we could play his receptions total at 3 (-176) but that is above his average and yet still carries heavy juice. Through three playoff games this season, Rhamondre Stevenson has been targeted 10 times catching seven passes for 86 yards. Opponents targeted running backs on 21.2% of passes against Seattle this season. The Seahawks were the only team in the NFL with a target rate over 20%. The result? Seattle’s defense allowed a league-high 7.5 running back targets per game. It also helps the cause that the Seahawks have allowed 110 receptions for 746 yards to opposing running backs.
***If you believe that TreVeyon Henderson will play a bigger role than he has in previous playoff games, you could entertain his rushing and receiving yards combined total of 25+ yards (-133). Perhaps go even bigger and play the rookie who has breakaway speed to rush for the most yards in the game (+2000).
Leg 2: Drake Maye 39+ Yards Rushing (-113)
The Patriots’ signal-caller has elected to run the ball plenty this postseason carrying the ball an average of eight times for 47 yards per game. That’s up from his regular season averages of 6 carries and 26 yards per game. Including the playoffs, the Seahawks this season have allowed opposing quarterbacks to cover that number twice: September 25 against Arizona (5 carries for 41 yards) and November 2 against the Commanders (10 carries for 51 yards). Others have been close to hitting the number, but those are the only two who would have cashed.
***If you are willing to sweat a little more, you could take Drake Maye’s rushing attempts at 7+ (-140). In a scenario where the Pats have the ball to close out a win, you could pick up 2-3 kneel downs by Maye and those each count as attempts.
Leg 3: Game Total UNDER 45.5 (-110)
The strength of each of these teams is their defense. They are stingy. The Pats allowed 38 TDs during the regular season (2.25/game). In their last ten regular season games New England allowed an average of 18.2 points. That number has sharpened to a mere 8.7 points per game allowed in the playoffs as Mike Vrabel’s warriors have allowed two total touchdowns in three games. The Seattle defense allowed opposing offenses to cross the goal line a mere 31 times during the regular season (1.82/game). In two playoff games Mike Macdonald’s crew has allowed three touchdowns – all coming against the familiar but also multi-faceted Rams.
***If you believe these teams will take a beat but eventually figure each other out and you don’t want the game-long sweat, playing the First Half Total of 22.5 UNDER (-112) may be more appealing.
Patriots’ Parlay
Rhamondre Stevenson 25+ Receiving Yards (-108)
Drake Maye 39+ Yards Rushing (-113)
Game Total UNDER 45.5 (-110)
A $10 wager on this parlay (+1300) returns $140.
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Know that whether you elect to ride with this parlay or select your own, there is more data available for this game than any other this season. The sharps have had two weeks to dissect this game in every direction. Let the experts help you make informed decisions.
Enjoy the sweat and enjoy Super Bowl LX.
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