After dominating the headlines in New England this season, Drake Maye took a backseat last weekend to the defense as the Patriots shut down Justin Herbert and the Chargers, 16-3. As a result, they are set to host the Houston Texans Sunday at Foxborough in the Divisional Round. Maye threw for 268 yards and a touchdown but the defense limited Los Angeles to 207 total yards.
The experts say defense travels and Houston’s did just that last Sunday as the Texans sent Mike Tomlin into retirement (Ok, maybe just a hiatus) and the Steelers packing with a 30-6 win in Pittsburgh. Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh offense were limited to 13 first downs and 175 total yards by the league’s top-ranked defense.
The Patriots’ defense was nearly as good as Houston’s performance last weekend. Mike Vrabel’s squad did not allow a touchdown and sacked Herbert six times while limiting the Chargers to 120 yards passing and 87 yards rushing. To put that performance in historical perspective. The only other team in the Super Bowl era to do compile numbers like that in a playoff game was the 1985 Chicago Bears against the New York Giants in the NFC Divisional Round.
The challenge is obvious for Houston. DeMeco Ryans’ team has now won ten straight games but there has to be some concern on the offensive side of the ball. C.J. Stroud and co. scored just seven points through three quarters against Pittsburgh and just 17 for the game (13 came directly off Steelers’ turnovers). They must be better against New England. Houston was ranked 22nd in Total Offense in the NFL this season.
This is the third all-time postseason meeting between the Patriots and the Texans. As is the case this season, both previous meetings have been in the Divisional Round and in New England. The Pats won 41-28 on January 13, 2013 and 34-16 on January 14, 2017.
Lets take a look at the matchup including a few key stats and trends, the quarterbacks, and those listed on the injury report.
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Game Details and How to Watch the Texans and the Patriots live Sunday
- Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026
- Time: 3PM EST
- Site: Gillette Stadium
- City: Foxborough, MA
- Network/Streaming: ESPN
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Game Odds: Texans at Patriots
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Houston Texans (+142), New England Patriots (-170)
- Spread: Patriots -3
- Total: 40.5 points
This game opened at Patriots -3 with the Game Total set at 41.5.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Playoff History: Texans and Patriots
Houston Texans
All-Time Playoffs: 7-8
Wild Card Round: 7-2
Divisional Round: 0-6
New England Patriots
All-Time Playoffs: 38-22
Wild Card Round: 5-6
Divisional Round: 16-6
AFC Championship: 11-4
Super Bowl: 6-5
Pre-1966: 0-1
Quarterback Matchup: Texans at Patriots
- Texans Starting QB: C.J. Stroud
Last Game: 1/12 at Pittsburgh – 21-32, 250yds, 1TD, 1INT, Sacked 3 times, 1 carry for 0yds rushing
Postseason: 1GP, 21-32, 250yds, 1TD, 1INT, Sacked 3 times, 1 carry for 0yds rushing - Patriots Starting QB: Drake Maye
Last Game: 1/11 vs. Chargers – 17-29, 268yds, 1TD, 1INT, Sacked 5 times, 10 carries for 66yds rushing
Postseason: 1GP, 17-29, 268yds, 1TD, 1INT, Sacked 5 times, 10 carries for 66yds rushing
Texans at Patriots: Team Stats and Betting Trends
- The Patriots are 24-5 (.828) at home in the playoffs in their history
- Stefon Diggs has played in 15 postseason games and has 71 receptions for 925 yards and 4 TDs
- Diggs needs 75 postseason yards to become the 17th NFL player to reach 1,000 postseason yards
- Houston has never been to the AFC championship game in its 24 seasons of existence
- Woody Marks rushed for 112 yards in Houston’s Wild Card win over the Steelers
- Marks had not previously rushed for more than 74 yards in a game this season
- Houston is 10-8 ATS this season
- New England is 12-5-1 ATS this season
- The OVER has cashed in 11 of New England’s 18 games this season (11-7)
- The OVER has cashed in 6 of Houston’s 18 games this season (6-11-1)
Texans Player Injuries
- WR Nico Collins (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- RB Jawhar Jordan (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- WR Justin Watson (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- RT Trent Brown (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LG Tytus Howard (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- RG Ed Ingram (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DE Denico Autry (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DT Sheldon Rankins (elbow) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Azeez Al-Shaiar (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Kamari Lassiter (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
Patriots Player Injuries
- RT Morgan Moses (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Harold Landry III (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Christian Gonzalez (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Anfernee Jennings (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- RB Terrell Jennings (concussion) is eligible to be activated off the IR and has been a full participant in practice this week
- CB Alex Austin (wrist) is eligible to be activated off the IR and has been a full participant in practice this week
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Texans and the Patriots
- Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Patriots on the Moneyline.
- Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Patriots -3.
- Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Game Total UNDER 40.5.
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