Seahawks’ Fans, let’s build a parlay for Super Bowl LX.
The success of Mike Macdonald’s team is based on an elite defense and one of the top passing offenses in the league. Seattle’s defense allowed just 31 touchdowns during the regular season and an additional three in their two playoff games (all in the NFC Championship). On offense, the Seahawks led the NFL with a 53.4% dropback success rate (the Pats - No. 2 at 52.6%). Sam Darnold and the Seattle offense was a Top 10 unit this season, heavily driven by an efficient passing attack and elite scoring, ranking third in points per game (28.4) and seventh in total yards (362.3 per game).
A few variables to consider: Will Seattle spend any time trying to establish the run? Can Sam Darnold handle the magnitude of the moment of the Super Bowl when under duress courtesy of the Patriots’ pass rush? Can the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba find some room against a Pats’ gameplan aimed to blanket him?
Lets proceed under the assumption that Seattle wins Super Bowl LX. Whether they cover or not is inconsequential to our parlay. Next, lets settle on a game script that is not dependent on margin of victory. What needs to happen for Sam Darnold and co. to win the Lombardi Trophy? Here is one path to victory:
Leg 1: Rashid Shaheed 25+ Receiving Yards (-110)
Make no mistake. Seattle is a run-first offense. They own the highest run rate (49%) over the course of a game in the NFL this season. That said, when facing strong run defenses this season, they have focused early in games more on the pass throwing 58% of the time on early downs in the first half. Shaheed has caught just one pass in the playoffs after catching only 15 passes in nine regular season games since arriving in a trade midseason from New Orleans. All that said, he will be the fastest player on the field at Levi’s Stadium Sunday. It was a rocking chair bet last weekend cashing on Seattle’s opening series of the game when Shaheed just outran the defenders down the sideline. No question New England will look to take away Jaxon Smith-Njigba. To what degree those efforts will be successful is debatable, but it should equate to more targets for Shaheed.
***If you believe strongly in the number of times Darnold will target Shaheed, betting his receptions at 2+ (-135) is reasonable.
Leg 2: Sam Darnold 30+ Pass Attempts
This is another acknowledgement of just how good the Patriots’ run defense is but also a nod to the aggressive and confident play of Sam Darnold this season. As noted in the first leg of our parlay, the Seahawks adapted consistently from a run-first offense to more of a pass-oriented attack when facing strong rushing defenses. Darnold attempted 36 passes in the NFC Championship game. That marked the fourth time in the last six games he has attempted at least 30 passes. In the other two he threw 27 and 26 times respectively. No question Klint Kubiak’s confidence in Darnold has grown as the season has progressed.
***If you are looking for more of a sweat and expect Darnold to have a big day, a play on him to earn MVP Honors (+120) is worth consideration.
Leg 3: Sam Darnold to throw 2+ TDs (-122)
The Seahawks’ offense ranked as the #3 scoring unit in the NFL, averaging 29.2 points per game. With Milton Williams on the field this season, 81.3% of the touchdowns against the Patriots have been passing touchdowns. Those two facts point directly to Darnold finding a way through the air. Darnold cashed this prop in the NFC Championship game and in five of the final eight games of the regular season.
***If you are looking for more of a sweat and expect Darnold to have a big day, 3+ TDs (+269) is worth consideration.
Seahawks’ Parlay
Rashid Shaheed 25+ Receiving Yards (-101)
Sam Darnold 30+ Pass Attempts (-108)
Sam Darnold to throw 2+ TDs (-122)
A $10 wager on this parlay (+405) returns $50.50.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Know that whether you elect to ride with this parlay or select your own, there is more data available for this game than any other this season. The sharps have had two weeks to dissect this game in every direction. Let the experts help you make informed decisions.
Enjoy the sweat and enjoy Super Bowl LX.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
