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They may only have two wins, but the Houston Texans have quickly gained the respect of the betting public with Tyrod Taylor under center. Despite struggles on both sides of the ball and some poor coaching, oddsmakers are not only respecting Houston against a team with a better resumé, they’re actually favoring them by nearly three points.
Is that warranted, though? Let’s get into the game.
New York Jets vs. Houston Texans (-2.5) Total: 44.5
First and foremost, little attention has been paid to the Jets. A careful observer would notice that offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur has completely changed the way he is calling games in the games since Zach Wilson was injured, calling gadget plays with regularity and leaning heavily on the pass.
While Wilson didn’t look good before his injury, he wasn’t the only thing that wasn’t working. Alijah Vera-Tucker struggled with consistency in his first NFL games and the Jets offensive line needed some time to gel. LaFleur had some aforementioned issues but a move from the sideline to the coaching booth has completely launched this offense upwards, and it now ranks ninth in passing offense.
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The Jets are unlike other bad teams in this way — they have proven capable of scoring a lot of points, even on good defenses like the Colts. On the other hand, their defense has been putrid and is the main reason for many of the losses of late.
That’s where Houston comes in. The Texans are 32nd — dead last — in offensive DVOA. While many are high on Houston following a 22-13 win over the Titans, it’s important to look at just how poorly Tennessee’s game was called and how bad Ryan Tannehill played. Taylor, in his own right, only managed 107 yards.
Attacking the Jets’ inexperienced and injured secondary has been the way to beat them, and Taylor simply hasn’t seemed up to the task this year. While Houston will definitely make some noise against a defense this bad, it lacks the playmakers to really gash New York and hit the Jets where it hurts.
The Jets’ offense is the best unit in this game by a wide, wide margin. It should prevail and be the story of the game. I’ve got no idea why New York is getting two points; I’d favor the Jets here. Houston is overvalued.
Edge: Jets ML (+115)
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