It’s NFL season and that means you’ve got a chance at $100,000 with Sunday Night 7. Predict what will happen on Sunday Night Football and watch along to see if you’ll be the next big winner. Click here to get started with the NBC Sports Predictor app.
Fachia Brute. Week 3 was gross from the player prop perspective but otherwise strong on the game sides. The good news is I finished watching Sex and the City after an aggressive binge in between football games, so my head is totally locked in on handicapping the rest of the way. Johnny V coming in hot.
*Note: You have heard me say shopping around is pivotal, especially in futures betting, so make sure you look to see what book is offering the more favorable odds.
The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens | Over/Under 51
In the first play of the triple bird special, the Ravens host the Bills in the all-overrated matchup. No, I’m not a hater… usually. But who died and made the Bills and Ravens the daddies of the AFC? I concurred with Jackie Chiles when he said, “Who told you to do that? I know I didn’t tell you to do that!” In any case, it’s still a premier game on the Week 4 slate featuring the two MVP favorites.
The blackbirds, named after that psycho-genius Edgar Allen Poe, live by his motto when it comes to playing defense “nevermore,” which totally translates since they just let DeVante Parker drop 156 yards last week like he was prime Terrell Owens. In what world?
Anywho, Baltimore is being led by 2019 MVP and one of the 2022 favorites (+600) in Lamar Jackson. To be fair, I have been extremely critical of the running back, but in my objectivity, he has played lights out (749 pass yards, 10 TD/2 INT with 243 rush yards and two scores). I still don’t think his play is truly reflective of his box scores, but it’s ultimately a slight nitpick because most of the stuff I have criticized him over the years has been drastically changed thus far this season. Not that I take much stock into analytics because they are mostly BS, but Balty is the number one offense in DVOA this season, which is saying a lot considering they are number one in scoring (33 PPG), and number four in total offense (380.4 YPG). The Ravens are set up well on offense to put stress on a Bills defense that struggled mightily against running teams with big play actions last season. Sure, you might say Buffalo has a top-five defense in scoring, passing, rushing, and overall, but let’s be clear, this is definitely the best unit they will have seen thus far this season. Plus, missing S Micah Hyde for the season doesn’t help (expected to get back S Jordan Poyer and CB Dane Jackson). Not to mention, Baltimore likely getting cornerstone LT Ronnie Stanley back won’t hurt either.
The Buffalo Hill-Billies are a clean 11-3 SU; 9-4-1 ATS coming off a loss since 2019, having covered five and won six of their last seven in this spot. They have been dubbed the best team to ever step foot on a field despite not having even made the Super Bowl since Natalie Portman was a pseudo child hit-man in Leon The Professional (Great effing movie by the way). Buffalo got a wake-up call playing in the heat and humidity last week in Miami - who also did not play well either. Basic stats won’t indicate the edge I’m looking for, but rest assured, Buffalo could struggle to contain the Ravens’ offense, especially with the skeleton crew patrolling the secondary. Don’t let the fact that they dominated a flat Rams team and crippled Titans squad distract you. Contrarily, the Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs/Gabe Davis combos should shine against this molasses secondary of Baltimore, who has gotten cooked by speed this season.
If neither front seven can contain the run or generate pressure then this might be an extremely high-scoring affair. Heading into the weekend, Balty is garnering more sharp money at the moment than the Bills. I grabbed some Ravens +3.5 on Monday, but would still play this to +3 because I think they win outright. FYI if you believe Baltimore wins, grab that Lamar Jackson MVP ticket because it will flip with Allen after Sunday.
Prediction: Ravens win and cover (+3)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) | Over/Under 45.5
Now that I think about it, I have designed three matchups that feature birds v land animals. Who would win in a fight- an eagle or a jaguar? Not slighting the eagle, but the jag is my pick here. On Sunday, Big Daddy Doug returns to the dusty “Linc” in Philly where he won a ring for a bunch of ungrateful fans. He has Jacksonville ascending as a force to be reckoned with, but will it be enough?
Doug Pederson on returning: “I’m really looking forward to getting back there. I understand that city, I understand the passion for football. But now I’m on the other side… I’m looking forward to it, getting back up there… We did a lot of good things there. Looking forward to the welcome.” That’s my kind of guy. The 2-1 Jags are looking like a competent bunch for the first in five years after they just mopped up the Chargers in LA (38-10). They are top seven in total offense (375.7 YPG) and scoring (28 PPG). Trevor Lawrence looks like a future MVP candidate, Christian Kirk is one of the best non-QB offensive acquisitions in a while, I get it.
The issue I have with the Jags is they have beaten the Colts and Chargers with numerous key injuries, which severely crippled them. Obviously, it isn’t their fault they have managed to stay healthy while playing injured teams, but it can force me to pump the brakes a bit. Matchup-wise, this is Philly all the way for me as very few teams can out-trench the Eagles on either side of the ball. The main story here is Pederson returning. Jax has no elite pass rushers or secondary players to put pressure on Jalen Hurts or the receivers - who are operating at an elite level right now. If they want to pull off a gigantic upset, the Jags will have to run the rock, use the backs in the passing game, and be able to take advantage of 1 v 1 mismatches.
As much as I hate to say it ... Philly, you are looking good. The Eagles in my opinion are nowhere close to their peak right now. They will continue to ascend like an airplane reaching 35,000 feet. Hurts is a bonafide stud and MVP candidate right now, something I was not sure we would say after 2021. With Hurts leading this number one total (447 YPG) and number five scoring (28.7 PPG) offense, it’s difficult envisioning a defense outside of Tampa Bay, San Francisco, and maybe Buffalo stopping it. The Jags on paper just simply don’t have the talent on defense outside of OLB Josh Allen to constantly put this offense on its heels. If you remove that meaningless Week 18 game against Dallas when Philly rested everybody, the Eagles have won four straight home games all by at least 10 points.
Somebody grabbed enough Jacksonville early in the week to drop the line from 7 to 6.5. It looks like some sharper money is on Philly for the time being. The Jags are on their way but have not arrived yet. The Eagles should win this one with a comfortable margin. I’m not a huge believer in them either, but given the dead zone that the NFC is, it is time to start taking them seriously. With my Nick Sirianni COY ticket (8/1) in one hand, I’m running to the window to drop a bet on the Eagles -6.5 for Sunday.
Prediction: Eagles win and cover (-6.5)
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers (-1.5) | Over/Under 43.5
This is getting to be a habit every week, isn’t it? Heading into my third straight week of highlighting Arizona, I can say they did not almost get me banned from Buffalo Wild Wings last week as they did the week before. There is a common saying that nobody is perfect, which is true, but I’m damn near close when it comes to the Cardinals. It seems like I know what’s going to happen with them before they do. So, what do they do in Week 4?
No tuddies last week for Zona. What a shame. I mentioned multiple times this summer that things were going to get bad for them in 2022. After roaring out to a 7-0 start in 2021, and ultimately securing a playoff spot, they were handsomely rewarded with one of the hardest schedules in the league this year. Realistically staring at 3-9 heading into their Week 13 bye, Zona needs to start tallying up some W’s. Going against Carolina and their solid defense, Arizona will finally have to start running the ball with the now geriatric James Conner, Eno Benjamin, and Darrel Williams along with Kyler Murray the rugrat toddler. Because they have been playing from behind all year, their passing attempts (145) heavily outweigh the rushing (71). Hitting this balance will allow the offense to create more off the play-action to Hollywood Brown, Greg Dortch and company. I make fun of Murray, but he’s done some good things thus far to get his team back in the game. They will have to count on his magic against an aggressive defense that limited the Giants and Saints to less than 20 points each.
So, Christian McCaffrey hasn’t practiced all week after a late pop-up with a quad injury. What else is new for this made-of-glass baby? My french bulldog got hit by a car a few years ago and is still kicking, CMC would be in a body cast for the rest of his life. HC Matt Rhule said he’s “hopeful” CMC will play this week. Yeah, and I’m “hopeful” Dua Lipa is just going to show up on my doorstep one day, but it ain’t Christmas… or my turn to use Aladdin’s genie. Plus I heard from sources on Wednesday prior to the injury report coming out that he was likely to miss. With Baker Mayfield as one of the worst QB’s in the NFL by most metrics, and the team losing its best player, it is a tough ask for bettors to back the Panthers. If the Panthers want to pull it off, the RB combo of Chubba Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman will have to get it going on the ground, with Mayfield making some good throws against a secondary that is hot garbage.
There is a chance that the tail-end of Hurricane Ian catches North Carolina on Sunday morning, which leaves this a highly undesirable spot. Regardless, Zona is set up well here to steal one on the road against a Panthers team in a major letdown spot. It does seem like more of the public is on Arizona here in what is basically a pick’em, but hey the public does have to win sometimes!
Prediction: Cardinals win (+100)
Teaser:
Teaser SZN has been very butter to start the year. Let’s dip back in the teasers to make it 4-0 on the young campaign.
Baltimore Ravens +9 (originally +3)
Read the review above. I think the Ravens are live for the upset W. The Bills’ defense is highly overrated, especially missing key pieces in the secondary. Baltimore offensively should have a ton of success in both the run and pass game, especially if they are getting LT anchor Ronnie Stanley back. Look for Lamar and company to shine.
Seattle Seahawks +10.5 (originally +4.5)
Hint, hint. This will likely be in the secondary article I send out. Originally I was a Lions -6 guy in the lean department as a look-ahead spot, but after reviewing the injuries Detroit has, and the action Seattle got, it seems like there is sharp money on the Hawks. Detroit is not good enough to be laying double digits against anybody, so I believe Seattle is a good spot here to take advantage of plenty of Lions’ weaknesses to keep this thing tight.
Summary:
Ravens cover +3 (-110)
Eagles cover -6.5 (-110)
Cardinals win (+100)
Teaser: Ravens +9/Seahawks +10.5
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.