Please don’t look at me like that. The Rams looked like the favorite word of Clay Davis from The Wire, but that’s behind us. Nevertheless, despite that atrocity these eyes had to witness, we still managed a solid and profitable night. Now, aside from the actual excitement that football is back, there are several Week 1 plays I have to splurge on. Let’s get tropical.
*Note: You have heard me say shopping around is pivotal, especially in futures betting, so make sure you look to see what book is offering the more favorable odds.
New York Giants @ Tennessee Titans (-5.5) | Over/Under 43.5
It brings me great joy to say this, it’s been a long and suffering road for the New York Giants (and their fans) the last five years. Since 2017, they are 22-59 (4-13 last season). However, there is a reason to smile in 2022, his name is Brian Daboll. After converting an okay roster/team in Buffalo into the second highest scoring offense the last two seasons (29.82 PPG; behind the Bucs), Daboll is set up to help the Giants lay some building blocks for the future.
Although we cannot expect Daboll to overhaul Daniel Jones like he did Josh Allen, we may see him transform into a Walmart version of the Bills’ signal caller (play making, cleaning up turnovers, command of the offense etc). Facing a Titans’ defense that ranked second best in rushing (84.6 YPG) and T-5th best in PPG (20.8) could be a scary thought for backers. But it’s important to remember how the G-Men beefed up the O-line with adding OT Evan Neal in the draft.
Daboll has already said Saquon Barkley is going to be used like a 2005 Chevy Tahoe with 158,000 miles on it. The secondary was suspect for Tennessee last season (8th worst; 245.2 YPG) and is expected to follow in similar footsteps starting rookies and second year players. The loss of LB Harold Landry could also provide a great mismatch for Barkley in the receiving game. I could throw out a bogus stat where the Giants are 9-8 ATS on the road in the last two seasons, but the fact is they are set up better personnel wise.
Even Hellen Keller could tell you the Titans being the number one seed in the AFC last season was a major fluke, especially after they lost King Derrick Henry. No wonder why Mike Vrabel took home Coach of the Year honors. In 2022, there are more people than not projecting a drop off for this team for the simple fact there is no way they can luck out like they did in 2021. Aside from that, they lost two starting impact linemen (Rodger Saffold and David Quessenberry), and obviously stud WR AJ Brown (and Julio Jones). The world has hilariously projected the decline of one of the best backs this league has ever seen after Henry broke his foot on his way to another 2,000-yard campaign. I’m not all in on the Titans hate, but I won’t sit here and say I believe in them either. With Robert Woods coming off an ACL tear and Treylon Burks so green, the offense could struggle early to take pressure off the star back, which helps key in on him. Defensively, they are likely due for a regression in the run game, sacks, and PPG.
Saving the best for last, the Giants are in the money zone. If you did not read my column last season, remember this: ALWAYS take the road team getting exactly 5 or 5.5 points. It won’t always hit, but it does more times than not. Last year this metric went 9-1 ATS and 31-21 ATS the last three seasons. There are two certainties in life; 1. We as a society took Avril Lavigne for granted in the early 2000’s. 2. ALWAYS take the road team getting 5 or 5.5 points. I don’t think they win, but I love the Giants to cover.
Prediction: Giants cover (+5.5)
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Minnesota Vikings | Over/Under 47.5
You may or may not be aware of a stat going around Twitter. In Week 1 (Since 2015), divisional home underdogs are covering at 78.3% ATS. The Vikings are one of three in this opening week along with the Texans and Falcons. The matchups between these two opponents have been heating up for the last half decade or so as they have basically split in six of the last seven years.
Over the course of the summer, I have touted the Minnesota Vikings as one of the teams I have my hazel eyes on. In all fairness, I started talking about them in June, but really looked into them in May. Justin Jefferson is my pick for OPOY and yards leader, Kirk Cousins is my longshot for MVP, and the team was my NFC North pick. New HC Kevin O’Connell should bring that high flying flair to this offense that scored 24+ points in 11 of their games a season ago. Things should positively regress to the mean for a team that lost eight games within one possession. Minny is 4-2 ATS/SU against the Packers in the last six games.
On the other side of the rock, Minny gets OLB/DE Danielle Hunter back, which is better than scoffing an entire sleeve of Oreo’s. Hunter’s 54.5 sacks since 2016 is 10th most despite missing 10 games in 2021. Obviously, we cannot ignore the addition of OLB Za’Darius Smith, ILB Jordan Hicks and rookie S Lewis Cine. Because this team was missing key players last year, we should expect that bottom three total defense (383.6 YPG) and ninth worst scoring defense (25.1 PPG) to mightily improve.
Much has been made about Green Bay’s offense without star wideout Davante Adams. Take it easeee. Since 2019, the Pack have played seven games without Tae, and they are not only 7-0, but Aaron Rodgers has a 19 TD/1 INT ratio. Of course, his absence is not in spurts, but it gives you an idea. Frat boy HC Matt LaFleur has already floated the sexy idea of vigorously deploying the combo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. With the pair combining for 2,306 scrimmage yards and 17 tuddies last season, they are set up to create chaos. The even better news for GB is the fact that two-time reigning MVP Rodgers has compiled a 21 TD/1 INT ratio against the Vikings in his last 10 games.
Defensively, Green Bay is likely going to be relying a little more on their strong defense than in past years. The loaded nucleus will be a formidable opponent to just about every offensive unit they face. Even at less than full strength last season, they stymied the then-7-0 Cardinals the week before shutting down the Chiefs. While the true arrival of this unit is not announced, it should be this season. The key component in this matchup is how Rashan Gary and the rest of the front seven will generate pressure against the maybe average line of Minnesota. The Vikings dropped 34 on them in Minnesota last season.
I came out saying against my better judgment, I think the Packers win 12 games this year. However, I also staked my claim to the Vikes this season as the new team to beat in the division. In order to do that, they would have to at least split this series. There is no better time to do that than Week 1 in your own building in a new era. Expecting another tight matchup, I like Minny to pull it out.
Prediction: Vikings win outright (+100)
New Orleans Saints (-5) @ Atlanta Falcons | Over/Under 43
A rivalry I grew up watching as a child with Sunday Gravy all over my clothes. As a kid, I HATED the Saints, and I kind of still do from a fan perspective. However, now that I am in fact a degenerate gambler that’s ready to liquidate his 401K at 28 years old, I would say I’m extremely pretty objective about my handicapping. Not to mention, levelheaded. Let’s see what we have here.
The only thing I’m looking to get into in New Orleans is Mardi Gras. Heard that’s cray. The Saints haven’t felt like a true contender since 2018 when they were the victims of the “No-Call” against the Rams. In this new era of Aints, I mean Saints football they have our boy Jameis Winston as the signal caller and Dennis Allen as the skipper. Winston was dialed in in the first six plus games last season with 14 scores to three picks as NOLA was 5-2. Dealing against one of the worst defensive units in Atlanta, they should dominate in the trenches and in the middle of the field. Aside from AJ Terrell and Grady Jarrett, the Falcons defense doesn’t have any elite pieces. ATL D was bottom five in scoring (27 PPG) and bottom six in rush defense (131.9 YPG). NOLA dropped at least 24 points against the Dirty Birds in four of the last five meetings.
Defensively, the Saints are ferocious. Their run game has finished as a top five unit in each of the last four seasons (Since 2018). In that same breath, they are 6-2 SU/ATS against Atlanta during that span. Adding the Honey Badger, Tyrann Mathieu, and Marcus Maye at the safety position provides not only some strong playmakers, but leadership as well. In addition to having a great run defense and accumulating a lot of sacks (46 -7th most), they should also have a strong pass unit. Working against a team that cannot run the ball, and will likely be limited through the air, the Saints could let the dogs off the leash.
I love Matt Ryan with my heart and soul. So glad he is out of Atlanta and on to a place he actually has a chance to win. It’s going to be a long season for this squad. The last time they actually won a home game against the black and gold was December 7th, 2017. And every loss since 2017 vs. the Saints was by at least five points. Mariota might not be horrible this year, but it is difficult envisioning them shining in the first game of the new regime facing their biggest rival that has rocked them for years. Rookie WR Drake London will probably see a ton of hyper-aggressive Marshon Lattimore -no easy task- while freak TE Kyle Pitts gets bracketed or doubled like last season when he totaled just five catches for 70 yards with no scores on 12 targets. I hate to say it, but I just don’t see it.
What a shocker this may be, but I have Saints winning and covering. There are still some kinks New Orleans likely has to work out, but they have a way better roster, and know how to exploit the thousand Falcon weaknesses. Since 2015, they are 10-3-1 ATS against this dreadful group from Atlanta. That stat above about home divisional dogs in Week 1, this is clearly the one that doesn’t get it done.
Side Note: Grab the Saints to win the NFC South before Week 1 (+300). Their schedule sets them up to be 4-1 or 5-0, which would destroy this number.
Prediction: Saints win and cover (-5)
Cuzzadeech, enjoy Week 1.
