Buffalo (6-3) and Tampa Bay (6-3) combined to lose just one game in the first four weeks of the season. Their quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield sat atop the odds board for NFL MVP and their respective teams looked destined to run away in their divisions and ultimately make deep postseason runs. Nine games into the season, however, injuries have caught up to the Bucs and Allen and co. just are not playing to the level they were earlier this season or in seasons past. As a result, Sunday’s meeting in Buffalo carries substantial weight.
Buffalo has lost three of their last five and considering how light the Patriots’ schedule is down the stretch, the Bills can ill afford to drop an additional game behind New England in the AFC East. The Bucs have lost two of their last three and while they still lead Carolina by a couple of games in the NFC South, health seems to be in short supply in the wide receiver room and along the offensive line. Reinforcements do not seem to be arriving anytime soon. Each side must figure out a path forward before it gets much later on the calendar.
Lets take a deeper dive into this week’s matchup between the Buccaneers and the Bills.
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Game Details and How to watch the Buccaneers vs. Bills live Sunday
- Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
- Time: 1:00PM EST
- Site: Highmark Stadium
- City: Orchard Park, NY
- Network/Streaming: CBS
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Game odds for the Buccaneers at the Bills
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Buccaneers (+210), Bills (-258)
- Spread: Bills -5.5
- Total: 46.5 points
This game opened at Bills -6.5 with the Game Total set at 50.0.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Quarterback Matchup for Tampa Bay at Buffalo
- Buccaneers Starting QB: Baker Mayfield
Last Game: 11/9 vs. New England - 28-43, 273yds, 3TDs, 0INTs, Sacked 2 times
Season: 9GP, 200-312, 2192yds, 16TDs, 2INTs, Sacked 19 times, 22 carries for 158yds rushing - Bills Starting QB: Josh Allen
Last Game: 11/9 at Miami - 28-40, 306yds, 2TDs, 1INT, Sacked 3 times, 4 carries for 31yds rushing
Season: 9GP, 185-263, 2139yds, 15TDs, 5INTs, Sacked 20 times, 59 carries for 311yds rushing
Buccaneers at Bills team stats, betting trends
- The Bills have won 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with winning records
- The Buccaneers have covered in 4 of their last 5 road games
- 4 of the Bills’ last 5 games (80%) have stayed UNDER the Total
- Buffalo is 4-5 ATS this season
- The OVER has cashed in 5 of the Bucs’ 9 games this season (5-4)
Buccaneers Player Injuries
- LB Haason Reddick (ankle) has been declared OUT for Sunday’s game
- WR Chris Godwin Jr. (fibula) has been declared OUT for Sunday’s game
- LB Merkees Watts (hand) has been declared OUT for Sunday’s game
- LG Ben Bredeson (hamstring) has been declared OUT for Sunday’s game
- RB Bucky Irving (shoulder) has been declared OUT for Sunday’s game
- RG Luke Haggard (undisclosed) is questionable for Sunday’s game
Bills Player Injuries
- TE Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) has been declared OUT for Sunday’s game
- DT Phidarian Mathis (upper body) has been declared OUT for Sunday’s game
- LB Shaq Thompson (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Taron Johnson (groin) is questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Cam Lewis (calf) is questionable for Sunday’s game
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports): Bills -5.5
This is a spot where I will go back to the well with Buffalo. Tampa Bay has lost two of the past three games and four of their six wins on the year have come by three or fewer points the exceptions being their wins over San Francisco and New Orleans. I am starting to come around to grading this team lower than a lot of other people. Tampa Bay has quietly fallen into the Bottom-5 of the NFL for passing success rate and offensive third down percentage over the past month. This is not the same Bucs team as Weeks 1-3. I like Buffalo -5.5 and might roll with the Team Total Over as a get-back play for my loss on Buffalo Over 29.5 points last week.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Buccaneers and the Bills
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Buffalo Bills at -5.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 46.5.
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