Vaughn Dalzell breaks down the three Thanksgiving Day games and what are the best bets.
Packers at Lions (-8): O/U 47.0
The Packers and Lions kick Thanksgiving Day football off and last week we cashed the Packers Team Total Over, but this week, we are going Under 19.5 at -118 odds.
Green Bay lost two of their three running backs and AJ Dillon is also banged up entering this matchup. Detroit has allowed only 25% of rushing plays against them to go for five or more yards, the lowest rate in the league, so it’s all on Jordan Love and I don’t like that as much today.
Detroit has been phenomenal at home this year and Thanksgiving Day home favorites perform very well. Love will be under pressure, and the last time these two met, the Lions won 34-20 and Detroit held a 27-3 halftime lead.
Give me Green Bay’s Team Total Under 19.5 at -118 odds. The Packers have scored 20 or fewer points in five of the six losses this season with its only 20-point game coming against Detroit funny enough.
Pick: Packers Team Total Under 19.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Commanders at Cowboys (-13.5): O/U 48.0
The Commanders are playing the Cowboys who are usually ATS stinkers on Thanksgiving but I do think the defense will handle Sam Howell.
Washington gives up over 6 combined sacks and turnovers per game, which is a recipe for disaster at Dallas. The Cowboys lead the NFL in pressure rate (47.1%) and are second in sack rate (10.5%).
Dallas held three of its four opponents to 17 or fewer points at home this season for an average of 12.5 PPG. Dallas held Washington to 10 points last year at home and to 14 points the year prior. I don’t see much changing here.
Give me the Commanders Team Total Under 17.5. I got this at -130 odds would shop around for the number or odds you are comfortable with.
Pick: Commanders Team Total Under 17.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
49ers (-7) at Seahawks: O/U 43.5
The Seahawks have scored a TD on 13% of their drives the past six games averaging 17.0 PPG in that span and 10.6 PPG in the three losses.
Seattle scored 20 combined points in the two regular-season games last year versus the 49ers and now Geno Smith is banged up after a one-point loss to the Rams.
San Fran’s defense is back to basics with 17 total points permitted to the Jaguars and Buccaneers over the past two weeks. In the 49ers’ seven wins this season, six of those opponents scored 17 or fewer points (The Rams scored 23).
Give me the Seahawks Team Total Under 17.5 at -118 odds and there’s a 19.5 at -140 odds on BetMGM if you shop there.
Pick: Seahawks Team Total Under 17.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 49-23-1 (68%) +23.63 units
Random Thanksiving stat:
Per Action Network, Since 2004, favorites on Thanksgiving are 46-8 straight up (SU) and 36-18 against the spread (ATS). In that span, road favorites are 24-1 SU and 19-6 ATS on Thanksgiving with the only loss coming back in 2009, when the Giants lost to the Broncos, 26-6.
Favorites of over 10 pts are 8-0 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005 and 11-0 ATS in the past 30 years.
If favorites do well again today, so will we since we’re fading the underdogs and offenses. I didn’t plan for it to happen this way, but here we are.
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