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Three postponements leave three games set to take place in the National Hockey League on Monday night.
Below you will find an overlay from tonight’s game between the Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
BOSTON BRUINS at WASHINGTON CAPITALS (Capitals -1.5, -110 ML, OU 5.5)
Despite the fact these two teams are trending in opposite directions, it still seems more likely than not that the Washington Capitals are the better of the two sides when compared to the Boston Bruins.
Boston’s lack of depth through the years has been well documented, and while they have rattled off wins in four of their five games in 2022, there are still reasons for skepticism.
Three of Boston’s four most recent victories have come against Buffalo, Detroit, and New Jersey – three teams that sit in the bottom-third of my power ratings (28th, 25th, and 24th).
It is true that Washington has been scuffling as of late, losers of three consecutive games for just the second time this season.
While their recent form leaves something to be desired, the Capitals’ overall body of work suggests they are a team that should still be considered among the elite in the NHL (currently rated sixth in my power ratings).
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There are reports that T.J. Oshie may be ready to return to the lineup tonight following a bout with an illness, and if that is the case, he could provide the necessary boost the Caps need offensively.
Washington has scored just three goals total in their last two games, neither of which featured Oshie in the lineup.
With the reintroduction of Oshie to the team and a decent outing from Zach Fucale between the pipes, the Capitals can right the ship and get back into the win column tonight against the Bruins.
Based on my projections, Washington defeats Boston 52.5% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of -111.
This indicates that the Capitals’ moneyline odds of -110 (implied probability of 52.4%) is not an overlay – it merely represents fair value.
Accordingly, I will look to the less likely but more profitable scenario of Washington covering the puck line.
My numbers suggest the Caps cover the -1.5-puck line 33.5% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of +199.
Given that Washington’s puck line odds sit at +200 (implied probability of 33.3%), we are effectively dealing with the same situation that is presented by the moneyline odds – fair value, not a significant overlay.
Because of the better price, however, I am inclined to side with the puck line as opposed to the moneyline, even though Washington is not projected to cover nearly as frequently as they are to win the game outright.
THE PLAYS
Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals – Capitals -1.5 (+200)
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