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With seven games set to take place in the National Hockey League on Monday night, bettors have plenty of opportunities to find value.
Below you will find two overlays to consider that are available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
DALLAS STARS at PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (Stars -1.5, -165 ML, OU 5.5)
The Philadelphia Flyers are in the midst of an incredible losing streak, having lost their last 11 games in a row.
The losing streak is bound to end at some point, however their inability to score means it will likely take an otherworldly performance from Carter Hart between the pipes to give the Flyers a puncher’s chance tonight against Dallas.
For the season, Philadelphia ranks 27th in the league in average goals scored per game (2.49), making tonight’s task of beating either Braden Holtby or Jake Oettinger that much more daunting.
Dallas’ goaltenders have scuffled a bit lately, but both Holtby and Oettinger have been solid this year.
Holtby owns a GAA of 2.68 and a SV% of .913 this season, while Oettinger sports a GAA of 2.73 and a SV% of .905.
Despite their recent struggles (the Stars have given up an average of 4.6 goals in their last five games), Dallas and their backstops have a prime “get right” opportunity tonight against the dismal offense of the Flyers.
EDGE Finder also indicates that Philadelphia has struggled mightily playing at Wells Fargo Center this season.
In home games this year, the Flyers are 6-13 (-8.23 units), with seven of the losses coming by at least two goals.
Based on my projections, Dallas defeats Philadelphia by at least two goals 43.1% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of +132.
This makes the Stars’ puck line odds of +155 (implied probability of 39.2%) worth considering.
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ST. LOUIS BLUES at CALGARY FLAMES (Flames -1.5, -165 ML, OU 5.5)
The line for this game smells funny given the trajectory of these two teams but given the moneyline price available on St. Louis ahead of tonight’s game with the Flames, I am willing to find out if it is a sucker line.
Calgary has picked up the pace some in their last two games, defeating the Florida Panthers by a final score of 5-1 and losing to the Edmonton Oilers, 5-3.
These games represent improved form compared to their previous four games, all of which were losses in lopsided fashion.
The fact of the matter remains, however: the Flames simply have yet to regain their pre-COVID break form.
St. Louis, on the other hand, is firing on all cylinders.
Winners of eight of their last ten games, the Blues have put together the perfect blend of scoring and defense that has cemented their place as one of the better teams in the NHL (currently fourth in my power ratings).
St. Louis is fifth in the league in average goals scored per game (3.51) and seventh in the league in average goals against per game (2.61).
When also considering how exceptional their special teams play has been this year (second in the league on the power play; fourth in the league on the penalty kill), it should come as no surprise that the Blues are earning the results they are.
Based on my numbers, St. Louis defeats Calgary 50.6% of the time (translates to odds of -102).
Given this number, it becomes obvious why the Blues’ moneyline odds of +140 (implied probability of 41.7%) must be considered in tonight’s game.
THE PLAYS
Dallas Stars at Philadelphia Flyers – Stars -1.5 (+155)
St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames – Blues ML (+140)
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