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Hello hello! The Stanley Cup Playoffs are headed into a couple of Game 3s tonight. It’s the second round and with several series knotted up at 1-1 the next few days will be critical for teams looking to advance. This Saturday the NHL went a little nutty with their scheduling so there will only be one game tonight followed by a Sunday triple header. That means there is a lone game to preview from the betting perspective, but worry not I still have a play for this game between the Avalanche and Blues.
Postseason Records to Date:
Record: 8-8 | Units -0.35
Devon Toews, Colorado Avalanche Player Prop, 8:00 PM ET, TNT (Game 3)
Through two games I must give the Blues a ton of credit. They have hung in with the best team in the NHL. After losing Game 1 in overtime they came right back and dominated the scoreboard in Game 2 with a 4-1 victory. Jordan Binnington has been great in the cage stopping 81 shots thus far while allowing just four total goals. The Blues, in front of him, controlled play for the most part too as they outshot the Avalanche and had the upper hand in scoring chances. For this reason, I can’t make a play on the Avalanche Money Line or Puck Line tonight. I think the price of -180 is just too steep for how close the series has been. I still like the way that Colorado plays though so instead I am going to opt for a player prop for the second time in this series.
Devon Toews is known around the NHL as a top-tier defenseman dating back to his time with the New York Islanders and with the Avalanche today it’s never been more accurate. He helps shut down the opposition’s top lines and is a minutes eater as he was on the ice over 25 minutes per game during the regular season. One thing that the average watcher may not know though is his contribution on the offensive side of the ice. On the season Toews averaged 2.5 shots on goal, which by no coincidence is his prop line tonight on DraftKings. More recently though he has turned on the heat going over the total of 2.5 in five of seven playoff contests to this point. That’s a hit rate of 71% for the math people.
His hit rate to odds ratio sits around -250 and that’s not a playable number, but luckily the sportsbooks don’t like his chances and have set the odds at +110 this evening. I have no idea why they are offering plus money on a guy that has been all over the ice for Colorado, but I won’t ask too many questions because that’s a steal. The Blues allow 32 shots on goal per game and as stated above the Blues have given up 85 total shots through the first two games. Look for Toews to continue chipping in tonight in Game 3 as we all hold our breath to see the frozen rubber go on the net a few times.
The Pick
Devon Toews, Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+110 on DraftKings)
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