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Welcome to the weekend hockey bettors! The week got off to a rocky start with 0-2 record on Thursday, but in the past two weeks this write-up is still 10-5 overall! Today we have just six games on the docket after the cancellation of four games due to the sweeping nature of COVID-19 infections around the NHL this week.
With that being noted, please keep an eye out on the news later today as it seems everything is in flux regarding players missing games and last-minute postponements. These are all picks and plays that were written today in the early afternoon and things could change! With that out of the way let’s dig into what I like for this Saturday’s action!
New Jersey Devils @ Detroit Red Wings 8PM ET
The Red Wings in 2021 have been a very curious case. They are right in the thick of things in the Atlantic Division which is amazing considering the expectations coming into the season, and they are an elite team on home ice to this point. Sitting with a 10-3-2 record when playing in the Motor City, they have won five of their last six home games. They are also 9-6 ATS playing from the comforts of the hometown as well. Although I will be fading the Puck Line and opting for just a Money Line bet tonight.
The goaltender tonight should be Alex Nedeljkovic who gives the edge in this bet but both goaltenders are above .500 in the red sweaters. If Thomas Greiss was to get the nod instead, he is 4-1 with a GAA of 1.79 and a SV% of .942! The NBC Sports Edge game predictor has the Red Wings Money Line with its highest “green” confidence tonight, in which the model is 69-32 so far on such bets this season.
Home-road splits continue to be important when you look at the visiting Devils tonight as well. Away from the Garden State the Devils are 3-9 straight up this season and have lost five in a row, more recently on the road. It’s not that they are just losing either, they are getting stomped. In the past five road games, the Devils have been outscored 27-11. That’s a big-time yikes. New Jersey also comes into tonight with myriad injuries throughout the roster, including Mackenzie Blackwood, P.K. Subban and Nico Hischier. If you combine the road woes and the major injuries, it’s hard to see the Devils stealing a game on the road tonight.
The goaltending situation is a mess in New Jersey right now so keep an eye on who they send out tonight. It could be Jon Gillies’ first start as a Devil since being traded from St. Louis. Truthfully, the odds of -125 are a great value in this matchup as all things mentioned could easily diminish the value on the sportsbooks. Not going to complain one bit though and place my ticket for the Red Wings to win on the Money Line tonight.
Chicago Blackhawks @ Dallas Stars 8PM ET
Let’s continue the trend on today’s write-up on the importance of home-road splits, shall we? The splits are quite telling for the Dallas Stars 2021 season to this point as they are 9-3-1 on home ice this season and 4-9-1 away from the Lone Star State. After noting that, I bet the Stars are happy to be home after losing five in a row coming into tonight, four of those losses coming on the road. The Stars don’t do anything well as far as stats and averages, but they tend to do just enough to stay afloat. Still awaiting the goaltender announcement but if Jake Oettinger gets the nod, then the Stars winning becomes almost a slam dunk in my mind.
Oettinger has made eight appearances this season and he has collected a record of 5-2 in those games with a GAA of 1.88 and an SV% of .938. Dallas has several key injuries, but it could get Roope Hintz back tonight who has been day to day and that’s a big boost for the offense. Hintz leads the Stars with 11 goals on the season. In addition to the play at home, the Stars will hold the even-strength advantage in this matchup as they sit at 49% in Corsi For percentage and the Blackhawks rank the seventh lowest in this metric at 46.6%.
On the away side tonight will be the Chicago Blackhawks and this team continues to struggle in 2021 as it has in recent seasons. Chicago is 5-9-1 on the road this year and has lost three of its last five games heading into tonight. Its goaltending I will say has been better of late, led by Marc-Andre Fleury winning four of his last five games. But Chicago is still allowing goals even in victories. It could be difficult for it to shoot its way out of this game though, with the Stars defense allowing just 2.85 goals per game and allowing the seventh-lowest shots against total in the NHL. On top of that, the Stars will have the edge at even strength play and the Blackhawks may be unable to remedy that on special teams as the power play ranks 19th in the league right now. I am fading the Puck Line tonight as Dallas has a knack for playing in tight games, but the 60-minute line is still in play and gives us acceptable value.
The Picks:
Detroit Red Wings, Money Line (-125 on PointsBet)
Dallas Stars, 60 Min Line (-120 on PointsBet)
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