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The story of the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs has been the play of the underdogs as 10 of the playoffs’ 14 series have been profitable to bettors who blindly played the underdog — we wrote about it 10 days ago. This week, we’ll dig into the value of home-ice advantage and how bettors can return plus-money on taking the road team ahead of the Stanley Cup Final, featuring the Montreal Canadiens and the Tampa Bay Lightning.
During the regular season, home teams won at a 53.3 percent clip with home favorites pushing those numbers to 63.2 percent. Through 79 total playoff games this year, home teams are winning at a similar 52.6 percent rate but there has been money to be made on the road team, especially road dogs. Non-favored visiting teams are 23-27 SU so far in the postseason but have netted 6.3 units on $100 bets or a 13 percent ROI.
Looking at those numbers, we see that home favorites are winning at just a 53 percent rate in the 2021 playoffs which is a big difference from the season total of 63.2 percent. Getting a 14.9 percent ROI fading home favorites is incredible value and with the Canadiens opening at +160 on PointsBet in Game 1 on the road, just splitting the first two games in Tampa could return MTL backers 30 percent.
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The Montreal Canadiens were the first team to punch their ticket to the Cup Finals. The Habs have won seven games on the road — all as an underdog — and lost just two. With the 7-2 SU road record, the Habs returned faithful road backers 111.1 percent ROI. That’s a $1,000 profit betting $100 on each of Montreal’s nine road games. The Finals pricing will match up very similarly to how the Vegas series was priced so look for Montreal to be +160 or better on the road for the entirety of the series.
Tampa Bay comes into the Finals with a 12-6 SU record which includes a 6-3 SU mark on the road. The Bolts are not priced nearly as high as the Canadiens when traveling but the six wins have been profitable for a +1.9u gain or a 21 percent ROI. Both of these clubs have been unstoppable on the road going a combined 13-5 SU.
Looking at previous playoffs, we see that home ice isn’t as big of a factor as some talking heads may lead you to believe. Last year’s champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning, went 10-1 SU on the road and 8-6 SU at home, and although not all those road games were as the underdog, getting that kind of win production while traveling is impressive nonetheless. In all, home teams went 63-79 SU in last year’s playoffs. Of course, the bubble and empty arenas had to do with a lot of it, but a 44 percent winning percentage with the advantages of being the home team is something to take notice of.
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Since 2016, home teams in the playoffs are winning at just 51 percent, and considering most of them would be favored, that is an even further stretch from the 2021 home favorite win rate of nearly 64 percent.
Over the last three Stanley Cup Finals, home ice has not been an advantage at all with the away team winning 12 of the 18 games. Of those 18 games, 15 had a home team that was favored. The home favorite won just six of those games as the road underdog has gone 9-6 SU over the last three Stanley Cup Finals for +5.85 units or an ROI of 39 percent.
Hockey is a game of bounces and is one that bettors should not be afraid of taking the better odds — usually the traveling team. Even with fans packing arenas finally, away teams are just as amped up to play the heel and quiet the crowd. In the playoffs, the traveling schedule isn’t as intense as the regular season which makes us question the overvaluing of home ice. With a pair of teams who are both playing exceptional hockey on the road, take the extra money and ride with the visitors during the 2021 Stanley Cup Finals if the books are going to give us great numbers.
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