With five matches set to take place on Saturday in the English Premier League, one would think it would be easy to find some sort of wager that appeals.
Not so fast, my friends.
Many of the offerings at PointsBet feature odds that are either spot-on or so heavily favor the more likely side that no edge is apparent.
There is one bet that offers a bit of intrigue, however.
Below you will find an overlay from Saturday’s match between AFC Bournemouth and Leicester City, with the odds supplied by PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would be an overlay.
Here is the year-to-date results tally:
6-7-1 (46.4%), +0.23 units
AFC BOURNEMOUTH v. LEICESTER CITY – DRAW NO BET – AFC Bournemouth (+144)
Bournemouth are far from the likeliest winners of this game, but interim manager Gary O’Neil has done an outstanding job of taking a club that was floundering and getting them to a place where the notion of avoiding relegation at season’s end isn’t farfetched.
Aside from a three-game stretch against England’s heavyweights (Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool) where they were outscored 16-0, Bournemouth have been incredibly competitive in the Premier League this season.
With two wins and three draws in their other five league contests, the Cherries have demonstrated that some of their skewed metrics may make their squad look much worse than it truly is.
Conversely, a 4-0 victory at King Power Stadium on Monday over woeful Nottingham Forest likely makes Leicester City appear as though they’re turning things around.
Upon further review, however, there’s still reason to believe the Foxes are in serious danger this season – particularly when it comes to goaltending.
29-year-old keeper Danny Ward finds himself as the primary netminder for a club playing in the English Premier League, something that would have seemed implausible during his younger days, never mind as an athlete nearing age thirty.
Following the departure of longtime captain Kasper Schmeichel, it was fair to have anticipated a drop-off in performance from whomever replaced the Danish goalkeeper – but this has been abysmal.
Through eight Premier League matches this season, Ward is averaging 2.75 goals against per 90 minutes played (per fbref.com), a number that’s worst among goalkeepers that have started each game for their team.
Perhaps even more shocking, Ward has stopped just 46.2% of the shots on target he’s faced, a percentage that’s easily the worst in the league.
Leicester City may have the better squad in terms of talent but their shortcomings in goal coupled with a newfound spark in Bournemouth lead me to believe the Cherries could spring an upset in front of their home supporters on Saturday.
I’m inclined to take a slightly more conservative approach with this wager, though, leaning into the +144 odds (implied probability of 41%) available on an AFC Bournemouth win with a draw resulting in no action.
