One month has passed, and 24 teams have become two at the European Championship.
Those two nations - Italy and England - meet Sunday at Wembley Stadium for a chance at becoming the newest champions of Europe.
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For England, a win on home soil would mark their first major trophy since the 1966 World Cup, while a win for the Italians would be their first European Championship since 1968.
Moreover, an English victory would represent the first occasion since 1984 a team won on home soil. Since France’s victory in 1984, two teams have reached the final at home only to fall short.
At PointsBet Sportsbook, England are the favorites to lift the Henri Delaunay trophy at -120 with the Azzurri slight underdogs at +100.
So as we close out this 16th European Championship, allow me to present my final set of best bets for the final.
England vs. Italy - Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
Despite history saying to back the Italians here, England have done little to show me they’re a bet-against team in the final.
Through six matches, the Three Lions remain the only side to have never lost a match on expected goals. Italy, on the other hand, have lost two straight matches on expected goals.
Plus, in 11 home matches this past year, England are 10-0-1. Their sole loss? Against Denmark in the Nations League while down a man.
For that reason, I’m backing the England Goal-Line (PK) at -125 as my main play in this match.
If Italy win this match, I expect it will come through extra time or penalty kicks. The last time England conceded more than a single goal came on November 15 against Belgium, and I believe Italy would need at least two to win in 90 minutes.
Seeing as England have averaged 1.6 xGF and surpassed 1.0 xGF in every match this tournament, I rate them as more likely to win the match in regular time.
Unless their outstanding defense -- 0.6 average xGA per 90 -- falters, no worse than a draw feels doable.
The second market I’m taking a look at is Both Teams to Score - Yes (+110). That prop has cashed in two straight Italy matches and cashed for the first time in England’s semifinal.
My theory of the case here is that both teams will have some tired legs at the back, which will produce valuable scoring chances on both ends of the pitch.
Additionally, I think the market is overreacting a bit to these teams’ defensive records. Despite these teams combining for nine clean sheets in 12 matches, they haven’t exactly come against the most offensively-adept nations.
The question for this prop, I believe, lies with Italy. If any team is going to keep a clean sheet in this match, it’s going to be England’s more youthful defense.
However, Italy haven’t been kept goalless since an October 11 Nations League match, so I’ll take the plus money and back them to get on the scoreboard.
Finally, I’ll continue to ride the Harry Kane train and back Kane Anytime Goal (+190). The Tottenham striker has now scored in three straight matches and Italy have conceded to the opposition’s central forward in two straight matches.
Additionally, If you’re seeking a pizza money flyer in the final, look at Kane to Score 2+ Goals (10/1).
Kane posting two goals would give the English captain the Golden Boot over both Cristiano Ronaldo and Patrik Schick. Plus, that play is effectively the same bet as Kane to Win the Golden Boot (+350), only for a better price.
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