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My Newcastle’s second-half implosion against Tottenham cost us last week’s total bet of Under 2.5 Goals.
We started well and looked solid until our goal in the 39th minute. That sparked Spurs into life, and once we were behind and tried to chase the game, it was easy pickings for Antonio Conte‘s side.
I’m back this week with a total bet for the biggest game of the season between Manchester City and Liverpool. All stats are taken from FBREF.com, and odds are taken from Pointsbet and reflective at the time of writing.
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Manchester City vs. Liverpool (Sunday, 11:30 AM EST, Live on USA)
The Premier League title can’t be won on Sunday, but it can be lost. The gap between these two at the top of the table is down to one point, and both know a defeat would hand control to their title rival.
Looking at the remaining fixtures:
Manchester City - Wolves (A) - Date TBD, Brighton (H), Watford (H), Leeds United (A), Newcastle (H), West Ham (A), Aston Villa (H)
Liverpool - Manchester United (H), Everton (H), Newcastle (A), Tottenham (H), Aston Villa (A), Southampton (A), Wolves (H)
It’s Manchester City who have the advantage. Four games are at home, and five opponents are currently in the bottom half of the table. If City avoids defeat on Sunday, they should be able to win back-to-back titles.
In team news, first-choice center-back Rúben Dias is close to returning from a thigh injury but won’t be ready in time for Sunday. I’m confident Pep Guardiola will instruct his full-backs Joao Cancelo and Kyle Walker to suppress their attacking instincts, sit deep and support Aymeric Laporte and John Stones.
Liverpool have a much harder run-in. Despite United and Everton’s troubles, the history and rivalry will make these difficult fixtures. Tottenham are in brilliant form and could cause problems. They need three points on Sunday to give themselves the best chance of lifting the Premier League trophy.
To break down City’s backline, Jurgen Klopp needs to get his front three right and faces a selection headache with Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mané, Roberto Firmino, Diogo Jota, and Luis Díaz all available. I honestly don’t know which three are the best combination for this game, and I’m glad it’s a decision I don’t have to make.
Klopp will instruct his full-backs to sit deep and not leave any space behind, especially Andrew Robertson. He should be up against Raheem Sterling a player brilliant at getting to the byline and causing problems in behind with his pace.
With all four full-backs focused on defensive duties and City not needing a win to maintain control of the title race, I think this will result in a low-scoring and cagey game.
Betting Tip: Under 2.5 Goals +112
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