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The final batch of UEFA Champions League Last 16 matches takes place this week, and the game I’m focusing on is Wednesday’s encounter between Lille and Chelsea.
The current European and FIFA World Club champions have a 2-0 advantage over the reigning Ligue 1 champions and are heavy favorites to progress despite their troubles off the pitch.
Read on for my breakdown of all the best bets available and what I’m backing. All odds are taken from Pointsbet and reflective at the time of writing.
Lille OSC (0) vs. (2) Chelsea (Wednesday, 4 PM EST)
The UK Government’s sanctions on owner Roman Abramovich and how the club operates have left Chelsea on the brink of crisis. If a sale goes through as soon as expected, I don’t think we will see any effects on the pitch and amongst the players.
Since the news broke, they beat Norwich City 3-1 and ended Newcastle’s impressive eight-game unbeaten streak with a hard-fought and fortuitous 1-0 win. Kai Havertz was lucky not to see red for elbowing Dan Burn, and Trevoh Chalobah blatantly grabbed hold of Jacob Murphy‘s shirt inside the box.
Both victories will give the players confidence and settle their nerves with what’s happening off the pitch. Manager Thomas Tuchel has been statesman-like in his handling of the situation. In Sunday’s post-match press conference, he declared he is willing to get his team to the Stade Pierre Mauroy by any means necessary, saying:
“My last information was that we are getting a plane. So we can go by plane and come back by plane. If not, we’ll go by train. If not, we’ll go by bus. If not, I’ll drive a seven-seater!”
I trust Tuchel’s ability to keep the players focused and lead them through this unprecedented situation.
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In recent weeks their opponents Lille have improved domestically, moving up to sixth after a poor start to the season. A lot of that success has been built off the backline who haven’t conceded in five Ligue 1 matches:
- Montpellier 0-1 Lille
- Lille 0-0 Metz
- UCL: Chelsea 2-0 Lille
- Olympique Lyonnais 0-1 Lille
- Lille 4-0 Clermont Foot
- Lille 0-0 Saint-Étienne
They have also struggled to find the back of the net, leading to five of their last six matches finishing Under 2.5 Goals. Be aware that three of the goals in the 4-0 win over Clermont Foot came after their opponent went down to ten men when Salis Abdul Samed was sent off on 68 minutes.
If we look at Chelsea’s run to the final last year, all seven Knockout Stage matches finished Under 2.5 Goals, and so did the First Leg between these two at Stamford Bridge. Under 2.5 Goals -125 is the logical play for this game.
I think there’s better value to be found in Chelsea’s Moneyline at -115. Lille have nothing to lose and could be more adventurous, leaving them exposed at the back. I’m confident Chelsea will be able to take advantage and pick them off on the counter. The players have demonstrated they can handle the current situation and maintain their performance levels.
If you’re looking for better value, Chelsea To Win To Nil +210 is worth considering. Last season’s run to the trophy was built on their solid defense, and they have managed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their last 14 wins in this competition. They have kept 22 clean sheets in 45 fixtures this season across all competitions per FBREF.com.
Looking at the Player Prop market, the best choice is Kai Havertz Anytime Goalscorer +155. Tuchel made a tough call playing him as the Number 9 in the First Leg ahead of Romelu Lukaku. Havertz has flourished, finding the net in four of his five matches, scoring five times, and generating 3.11 xG from 13 shots per FotMob.com.
If you want more value, consider backing Kai Havertz To Have 2+ Shots On Target +210. In four of his last five games, he has registered a shot on target two times or more for a total of 10. The only game he failed was against Liverpool, one of the best teams in Europe.
Looking at all the options, I’m taking Chelsea’s Moneyline -115. It’s the best value and safest play available.
Betting Tip: Chelsea Moneyline -115
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