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The Premier League is limping into matchday 18. Five fixtures have been suspended due to COVID-19 outbreaks, leaving just five left to be played.
With all the postponements and the current run of results, there have been many changes to the Premier League standings. If we were to take a snapshot of the table right now, Manchester City would be crowned champions, completing the repeat, while Liverpool and Chelsea would finish in second and third, respectively. However, the biggest surprise is that Arsenal controls the final Champions League spot in a tight top-four battle. Just five points are separating fourth-place Arsenal and eighth-place Wolves.
Below is how the Premier League table falls heading into matchday 18:
With that said, let’s jump into my favorite Premier League prop bets of the weekend. All odds and currently scheduled games are reflective at the time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Bukayo Saka To Have 3+ Shots (+115 PointsBet)
Bukayo Saka is in great form and is one of the main reasons Arsenal has overcome their poor start and clawed their way back into the top four.
The 20-year-old has recorded 11 shots in his last five matches and has the skill to beat any defensive back one-on-one and get into advanced positions. He is tenth in the EPL for touches in the attacking third and averaging 4.41 shot-creating actions per game (sixth in EPL). Saka also leads his team in carries into the 18-yard box and progressive passes received.
Arsenal will battle Leeds United on Saturday, which will be a favorable matchup for Saka and his shot total. Leeds gives up the second-most shots in the Premier League thus far with 263 and is allowing over 15 attempts at goal per game. The Peacocks will also still be without defenders Robin Koch, Liam Cooper, and Pascal Struijk, who are all injured. Plus, the elephant in the room, Leeds conceded seven goals against Manchester City in their last outing and allowed over 30 shots.
Bukayo Saka has reached this prop value in five of his last ten fixtures and three of his previous five Premier League outings.
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Best Bet #2 - Chelsea Asian Handicap -1 (-105 PointsBet)
Chelsea will be determined for a big win against Wolverhampton after dropping points in two of their last three league games if they are looking to keep up with Manchester City and Liverpool.
Chelsea is dealing with multiple injuries and a small covid-19 outbreak within the squad. However, Tomas Tuchel will still be able to piece together a strong starting eleven versus Wolves. Chelsea has the third-highest expected goals (xG) this season (33.47), and their 1-1 draw against Everton in their last outing was mainly due to luck not falling their way. They produced 23 shots against the Toffees and finished the match with an xG score of 3.47 via xGPhilosophy. Expect that luck to turn this weekend, as Wolves are in the bottom half of the league for expected goals against with 23.3.
Chelsea (3.47) 1-1 (0.54) Everton
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) December 16, 2021
Early on in the season, it was expected for this Chelsea side to record a clean sheet each time they step on the pitch. However, they have now conceded in five consecutive league games. That said, this is the perfect matchup for the Blues defense to get back in form. The Wanderers are scoring just 0.76 goals per match this season and have failed to score in their previous two home games.
If you think Chelsea will win by two or more goals and find the Asian handicap unnecessary, you can wager on the three-way spread at -1 with +160 odds.
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