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Unlike many of the top seeds here at Wimbledon, we’ve made it on to the fourth round. There are so many great matches to get in on, and I’ve got two plays below that I’m keying in on.
David Goffin (-110) vs. Frances Tiafoe (-110)
One thing was evident watching David Goffin play Ugo Humbert, and it was that Humbert refused to go to the net. The Frenchman was blasting groundstrokes to either side of the court and making his opponent run, yet he would not finish points off for fear of making an error while coming in.
Goffin was extraordinary, but he’s about to play a guy that has the same level of power from the back of the court and one who will be able to successfully win the required number of points to win the match. Tiafoe is excellent on this surface with his big serve and forehand, and he’s an excellent slicer of the ball on his backhand wing. I believe he can use the slice here to prevent Goffin from getting any sort of offense out of his backhand and he will be able to impact the serve of the Belgian, if a bad returner like Humbert was able to.
Tiafoe did just lose to Goffin at the French Open, but he’s not the same player on clay that he is on grass. This is a guy who is 13-5 on the turf dating back his win at the Nottingham Challenger last year, and he’s quickly turning into one of the top 15 players on this surface. I back him here to dispatch a fading Goffin who may very well be too tired to win this match.
Edge: Tiafoe -110
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Cameron Norrie (-189) vs. Tommy Paul (+150)
For me, this match is a coinflip. Norrie is ranked No. 12 in the world, but his level on grass this summer has been more like top 25. Paul is ranked No. 32, but his level has been a bit higher than that, and if I had to rank the best grass court players on tour I’d probably have these guys right next to each other.
Ironically, their head-to-head is 2-2 as well, with Norrie taking the last two. With that said, all but one have gone the distance, and the most recent match featured some strong wind gusts in Delray Beach. This is is about as much of a toss up as you will get, so I’m going to have to take the plus money here with the American.
Norrie’s big looping forehand should tee Paul up for some winners off of his preferred wing, the backhand. That shot has turned into a real weapon for Paul on grass, and after going winless on the surface at the main tour level for years he finally has figured out how to be effective on it. Paul is 7-3 on grass this summer with some impressive wins, and I think he can wear down a weary-looking Norrie.
Edge: Paul +150
