Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bets for the Saturday College Basketball slate, including Wake Forest at Virginia, and Iowa State hosting Texas Tech.
Wake Forest at Virginia (-2.5): O/U 130.5
Wake Forest beat Virginia at home 66-47, getting out to a 12-4 start after 10 minutes of action and never looking back. The Cavaliers shot 12-of-45 from two in that game (26.7%) and 4-of-12 from three (33%).
That matchup was the third road game in four contests for Virginia and the first back-to-back true road games of the year. Virginia lost at NC State, then had an entire week off and went back on the road to Wake Forest and came out rusty.
This spot is a much better situation for Virginia who is looking to avoid back-to-back home losses after losing to Pitt (74-63) on Tuesday. Wake Forest is coming off a road loss at Duke (77-69) where they scored eight points in the first 10 minutes and finished 6-of-26 from three (23.1%).
Wake Forest lost seven straight trips at Virginia until the win in 2022 but has yet to make it back there. I expect Virginia to get the win and avoid back-to-back losses at home for the first time since 2022 with a better start.
I played Virginia 1H ML at -130 odds on DraftKings. They have a -0.5 spread for -118 odds compared to the -1.5 at -115 offered on DraftKings and BetMGM if you want to save on odds.
Pick: Virginia 1H ML (Risk 1.5u)
Texas Tech at Iowa State (-6.5): O/U 137.5
I am going back to the well on a first half team total Under as Texas Tech has struggled offensively versus Iowa State.
In both meetings last year, Texas Tech scored 20 and 22 points in the first halves, inlcuding a 39-20 deficit and 84-50 loss at Iowa State. Texas Tech has scored 20, 22, 26, and 19 points in the past four first halves versus Iowa State (21.7 1H PPG).
The Red Raiders have one of the best offensive ratings in the country despite being 2-4 in true road games. However, they cannot rebound (346th, 355th) and turns the ball over 18% of the time in conference road action (2-3 record).
I played the Red Raiders 1H Team Total Under 30.5 at -110 odds. I’d go down to 29.5.
Houston is the only comparable opponent to Iowa State’s first half defense for road competition. The Cougars held Texas Tech to 29 in 20 minutes (12 points in 10 minutes).
Pick: Texas Tech 1H Team Total Under 30.5 (1.5u)
Kansas (-2.5) at Oklahoma: O/U 143.5
Kansas has yet to lose back-to-back games all season and I don’t expect it to come here as a short favorite at Oklahoma.
This opened around a pick-em but sharp money is coming on Kansas after Bill Self was ejected in the previous game, a 79-50 road loss at Texas Tech. Hunter Dickinson (2-of-12) and KJ Adams (1-of-10) combined to shoot 13% from the field and Kansas as a team went 3-of-16 from three (18.8%).
Kansas beat Oklahoma 78-66 earlier this season and I fully expect Bill Self to have this team focused on a big bounce back. Kansas has won the last two trips to Oklahoma, including a 23-point win last season.
I played the Jayhawks on the ML at -140 odds and would go out to -150. Oklahoma does not force turnovers or shoot free-throws well, so they will need to hope for another off-shooting or non-focused performance from Kanasas and I don’t see it.
Pick: Kansas ML (Risk 1.5u)
Season Record: 29-24 (54.7%) +2.43u
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