Vaughn Dalzell breaks down a Big 12 battle between West Virginia and Kansas State.
West Virginia at Kansas State (-9.5): O/U 143.5
Kansas State is coming off a 10-point home win versus BYU on Saturday and turn around to face the West Virginia Mountaineers who gave Iowa State a run for their money over 30 minutes.
Despite these teams being bottom of the barrel offensively in conference play, both teams turn the ball over a ton and get over 21% of their points at the free-throw line. K-State won 81-67 at WVU earlier this season, but Jesse Edwards did not play for the Mountaineers (14.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG).
I am targeting West Virginia’s team total in this game. WVU scored 66, 73, 69, 68, and 69 points in the last five trips to Manhattan (69.0 PPG).
The Mountaineers showed a lot of fight at Iowa State and are a talented group having a rough year, but with four straight opponents scoring 70 or more points versus the Wildcats at Kansas State (Oklahoma, Kansas, TCU, BYU), there is some value here.
WVU is No. 1 in tempo during Big 12 road play and loves to shoot the triple (33.6% of points), while Kansas State is 6th in Big 12 home play for pace (10th in tempo during Big 12 road play).
K-State’s permitted 50 three-point attempts over the last two games and while there has been only 9 makes (18%), WVU isn’t a team you want to give volume too. WVU went 8-of-23 (34.8%) from deep in the first meeting but lost the rebounding battle (35-22) without Edwards.
Give me West Virginia’s Team Total Over 66.5 at -110 odds on FanDuel up to 67.5 for 1 unit.
Pick: West Virginia Team Total Over 66.5 (1.5u)
Season Record: 48-40 (54.5%) +2 units
Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight weekdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.
