Vaughn Dalzell breaks down two Big Ten matchups between Michigan at Michigan State, plus Ohio State hosting Illinois.
Michigan at Michigan State (-12): O/U 144.0
The Michigan State Spartans would like to avenge the loss at Michigan last season and this is a good spot to do so while the Wolverines are amidst a 1-8 stretch.
When Michigan State is at home in this rivalry, the Wolverines scored 53, 67, 64, 69, and 63 points over the last five meetings (63.2 PPG). I believe Michigan will have its troubles offensively once again, especially without leading-scorer Dug McDaniel (17.3 PPG).
Michigan played two road games without McDaniel and scored 67 (Purdue) and 57 (Maryland). The Wolverines went 14-of-44 from three (31.8%) with 18 turnovers.
Michigan State is 10-2 at home this season and won three straight in Big Ten play over Penn State, Rutgers, and Minnesota. The Spartans held all three teams to 61, 55, and 65 points (60.3 PPG) with top three statistical ranks across the conference on defense.
I will ride Michigan State’s defense at home and take the Under 65.5 points on Michigan’s Team Total at +100 odds. I got this on DraftKings and would play to 64.5.
Pick: Michigan Team Total Under 65.5 (1u)
Illinois (-2.5) at Ohio State: O/U 147.0
These teams will only meet once this season after splitting last year’s series and while this game being at Ohio State favors the Buckeyes to keep it close, I have my doubts.
Illinois is the No. 10 and 11th ranked team in the country per Kenpom and Barttorvik and this season compared to No. 44 and No. 60 for the Buckeyes.
Ohio State is 1-7 versus top 100 teams (beat Alabama), while Illinois is 5-5 in that category (3-3 away from home). Illinois has played four true road games in the Big Ten this season, beating Rutgers (76-58) and Michigan (88-73) with close losses to Purdue (83-78) and Northwestern (96-91 OT).
The Fighting Illini have a woeful 43.2% allowed from three in those games (356th), but the No. 2 ranked offensive efficiency and No. 4 offensive rebounding percentage (39.3%). They match up well with Ohio State which is 1-5 in its last six games with a lackluster three-point defense of their own (41.8%).
Illinois is the better team and with Terrance Shannon owning two starts under his belt (three games overall), the Illini should continue to improve. I have Illinois as the 3rd-ranked team in the Big Ten and Ohio State as the 12th.
Give me Illinois -2.5 at -115 odds on BetMGM out to -3. The ML price is -155 now, which is out of range for a 1-unit play.
Pick: Illinois -2.5 (1u)
Season Record: 18-19 (48.6%) -3.86u
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