The Field of 68 is whittled down to a Sweet 16 by the end of the weekend. Here’s a look at Saturday’s slate of qualifiers with a bet from each.
7-Dayton (+370) vs. 2-Arizona (-485)
Spread: Wildcats -10 | O/U: 149.5
Assuming Dayton has found their game, this Flyers’ team can knock down the three and defend. If they can control the pace, they can stay in this game against the heavily favored Wildcats. Doubtful they win, but DaRon Holmes and Dayton can stay within the number.
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5-Gonzaga (-185) vs. 4-Kansas (+154)
Spread: Bulldogs -4 | O/U: 151.5
Gonzaga has not lost a first round NCAA Tournament game since the days of Steph Curry and Davidson. The Bulldogs have now won 15 straight Opening Round tilts. Kansas played well against Samford but looked to be tiring late. Mark Few has done his best coaching this season developing this group. You’ll pay the juice, but take Gonzaga ML.
9-Michigan State (+145) vs. 1-North Carolina (-175)
Spread: Tar Heels -4 | O/U: 140.5
The 9-seed is only a 4-point underdog against a 1? That is a lot of respect for Tom Izzo and Sparty? Michigan State did roll a competent Mississippi State team, but this experienced Carolina team defends and scores. This will be a rock fight early but take UNC and lay the short number.
7-Washington State (+245) vs. 2-Iowa State (-305)
Spread: Cyclones -7 | O/U: 129
That Total looks low as both these teams’ games average roughly 20 points higher. The low number is due to the Cougars’ shooting just 38% in Round 1 combined with Iowa State’s ability to defend. Look at playing the Cyclones’ Total OVER 67.5 (-110).
14-Oakland (+200) vs. 11-North Carolina State (-245)
Spread: Wolfpack -5.5 | O/U: 146
Gotta believe Jack Gohlke will have a Wolfpack defender in his face from the time he gets off the bus tomorrow. Assuming he gets even a few less clean looks at the basket, NC State should be able to work the 2-man game with Burns and Horne to continue this miraculous two-week run from 10-seed in the ACC Tournament to the Sweet 16. Lay the points with the Wolfpack.
7-Texas (+220) vs. 2-Tennessee (-270)
Spread: Volunteers -6.5 | O/U: 146.5
If you like the Vols, look at Zakai Zeigler’s assists and play OVER 5.5 (-150) and Max Abmas OVER 15.5 points (-110). He scores more frequently when Dylan Disu struggles on offense and Disu will be a focal point for the Vols’ defense. Review recent history.
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11-Duquesne (+400) vs. 3-Illinois (-535)
Spread: Fighting Illini -10 | O/U: 148
The Dukes are a wonderful story. Coach Dambrot’s squad really defended against BYU. The Cougars did not have anyone as dynamic as Terrence Shannon Jr. With 19 points in the 1st half, Shannon showcased skills from all areas on the offensive and defensive end. Ten is a big number and Duquesne will slow the pace, but Illinois eventually pulls away. Lay the points and take the Fighting Illini.
11-Oregon (+190) vs. 3-Creighton (-230)
Spread: Bluejays -5.5 | O/U: 146
The Ducks are playing their best ball of the season, but the Bluejays are better at both ends than South Carolina. Creighton is experienced which translates into efficient play especially from their guards. They shoot the ball as good as any team in the country. Ryan Kalkbrenner is an elite defender who should be able to contain Oregon’s N’Faly Dante. Take Creighton and lay the points.
Enjoy the Saturday sweats.