The Chase for 180: Jahii Carson’s improved jump shot
Who is the best shooter in the country?
It’s a tough question to answer, isn’t it? Does being a “shooter” simply mean merely being a high-level marksman from beyond the arc? Can a player who thrives in the mid-range but rarely ventures out into three-point land be eligible? How heavily should we be valuing stats like efficiency and effective field goal percentage when taking all of this into account?
One number that we like to use is “180″. How do you become a 180 shooter? By shooting 50% or better from the field overall, 40% or better from three and at least 90% from the charity stripe. From this point forward we’ll track this until the end of the regular season, providing weekly updates as well as a look into how some of the nation’s best find (and connect on) their quality looks.
There’s no denying the fact that Arizona State point guard Jahii Carson was one of the nation’s best newcomers in 2012-13. After having to sit out the season prior Carson hit the ground running, posting averages of 18.5 points, 5.1 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game. Those numbers and the fact that the Sun Devils increased their win total by 12 (from ten wins in 2011-12 to 22) and scored nearly 11 points more per game led to Carson winning a share of the Pac-12’s Freshman of the Year award.
So what’s there to do for an encore? For starters, shoot at a better clip from beyond the arc and from the field overall. Through ten games Carson’s shot 51% from the field, an increase of more than three percentage points from a season ago, and his three-point percentage (52.9%) has jumped 20.9%. And for those into tempo-neutral numbers (per kenpom.com) Carson’s effective field goal (from 50.7% to 57.0%) and true shooting (from 55.2% to 59.6%) percentages have improved as well.
The presence of a Jermaine Marshall on the perimeter has certainly helped matters, and Carson’s also found a way to earn even more scoring opportunities at the rim. According to hoop-math.com Carson’s attempted nearly 52% of his shots at the rim, shooting 57.7% in such situations. While his field goal percentage at the rim in 2012-13 wasn’t far off (56.9%), just 42.8% of Carson’s shots were attempted in this area of the floor.
Carson’s three-point percentage improvement will be the stat that receives the most attention, because it’s rare for a player who’s responsible for the amount of offensive production asked of Carson to make a nearly 21-percent improvement from one year to the next. Carson’s always had the speed to beat defenders off the dribble, resulting in many choosing to sag off and force him to prove that he can consistently knock down perimeter shots. Through ten games it’s obvious that he’s improved in this area.
THE TOP TEN (Note: Players much be eligible to be ranked in FG%, 3PT% and FT%. And here’s a glossary that includes the stats you’ll see used in these posts.)
1) Austin Tillotson (Colgate)
66.7% FG, 70.6% 3PT, 90.0% FT = 227.3
True shooting%: 76.6%
2) Austin Hamilton (Elon)
61.2%, 61.1%, 77.3% = 199.6
True shooting%: 74.0%
3) Michael Frazier II (Florida)
51.4%, 52.2%, 91.7% = 195.3
True shooting%: 69.6%
4) Kevin Pangos (Gonzaga)
49.6%, 50.0%, 92.7% = 192.3
True shooting%: 68.8%
5) Will Neighbour (UALR)
59.7%, 52.9%, 77.8% = 190.4
True shooting%: 68.9%
6) Shabazz Napier (UConn)
50.0%, 57.1%, 78.0% = 185.1
True shooting%: 63.0%
7) Doug McDermott (Creighton)
50.3%, 45.3%, 86.7% = 182.3
True shooting%: 63.5%
8) Jalen Jackson (Central Arkansas)
52.7%, 51.9%, 77.8% = 182.4
Shot %: 23.7%
True shooting%: 67.7%
9) Jahii Carson (Arizona State)
51.0%, 52.9%, 75.0% = 178.9
True shooting%: 59.6%
10) Zach LaVine (UCLA)
60.5%, 50.0%, 66.7% = 177.2
True shooting%: 72.6%
Five close-range shooters (no three-pointers attempted)
1) Sim Bhullar (New Mexico State)
70.9% FG, 1.89 PPS
2) Jon Smith (Ohio)
70.5% FG, 1.64 PPS
3) Kourtney Roberson (Texas A&M)
69.7%, 1.82 PPS
4) Marshall Bjorklund (North Dakota State)
69.7%, 1.66 PPS
5) Jordan Threloff (Northern Illinois)
69.4%, 1.92 PPS