Diego Pavia, Ty Simpson, Marcel Reed, and Fernando Mendoza all come up with wins this weekend to climb my rankings, while bye weeks were killers for the Buckeyes and Irish!
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule!
Vaughn Dalzell’s Heisman Trophy Week 10 Poll
Last Game: 168 passing yards on 15/22, 4 total TDs vs UCLA (56-6 win)
Season Stats: 1,923 passing yards, 72.9 comp %, 24 total TDs, 3 INTs
Following a 56-5 rout of UCLA, Fernando Mendoza separated himself from the rest of the field by a few inches. The Hoosiers continue its undefeated season at Maryland this weekend and have an ideal schedule to stay that way.
Indiana has back-to-back road games at Maryland and Penn State over the next two weeks before the home finale against Wisconsin. The Hoosiers wrap up the regular season at Purdue, so if you are at home counting — all four teams have losing records and are a combined 11-19. Mendoza will be invited to the trophy room and I think he can stat pad his way to staying the favorite come to the Big Ten Championship.
Last Game: 253 passing yards on 24/43, 2 TDs at South Carolina (29-22 win)
Season Stats: 2,184 passing yards, 67.8 completion %, 20 total TDs, 1 INTs
Ty Simpson and Alabama were gift-wrapped their victory over South Carolina which extended their winning streak to seven games. Simpson had his most inefficient game since Week 1 going 24 of 43 (55.8%) and 253 yards, but he did toss two touchdowns.
After posting his second-lowest passer rating of the season, Simpson will face LSU and Oklahoma, two of the best defense in the country. Four of the last five wins for Alabama have come against ranked opponents, so Simpson seems up for the task. A loss to either team though, and Mendoza starts to clear the competition.
Last Game: 129 passing yards, 20 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD vs #15 Missouri (17-10 win)
Season Stats: 1,698 passing yards, 458 rushing yards, 20 total TDs, 5 INTs
Diego Pavia scored the game-winning touchdown against Missouri to give Vanderbilt back-to-back wins over ranked opponents and three overall, which has never been done in program history, plus the 8-1 start is the best since 1941!
Pavia only posted 149 total yards of offense and threw an interception, marking his worst passer rating of the season, so it wasn’t his best outing, but enough to get the win. Vanderbilt has two road games left and they both come against ranked opponents: Texas and Tennessee.
If Pavia and Vanderbilt win out the rest of the season, he will be in contention to win the Heisman whether or not his yardage is up to par with Mendoza, Simpson, Reed, Sayin, or Chambliss, as examples.
Last Game: 202 passing yards, 108 rushing yards, 4 total TDs at LSU (49-25 win)
Season Stats: 2,321 total yards, 61.4 comp %, 23 total TDs, 6 INTs
Going on the road is no problem for Marcel Reed apparently. Over the past two games at Arkansas and LSU, Reed has scored four total touchdowns in each outing and 10 total in his three road starts. His only blemish on the road this year are the interceptions he tossed at LSU last week.
The Aggies’ 40, 45, and 49 points scored on the road has put the rest of the country on notice that Reed and the Aggies are title contenders. Texas A&M control their own destiny as one of the remaining undefeated teams.
Texas A&M goes to Missouri this weekend for another ranked matchup but luckily for the Aggies, the Tigers’ quarterback is out for the season, so Reed and company make have caught a break.
Last Game: Bye Week
Season Stats: 758 rushing yards, 197 receiving yards, 12 total TDs, 143 total touches
You can really rotate a range of players in this spot from Jeremiyah Love, Jeremiah Smith, Julian Sayin, Trinidad Chambliss, Gunner Stockton, CJ Carr, Haynes King, and maybe a few others, but I like Love.
Notre Dame has won five straight games and he’s totaled at least 100 combined yards in four of those with 10 total touchdowns during that span. Love is coming off a career-high 224 rushing yards and could very well keep that dominance going with Boston College on deck.
Honorable Mentions
Last Game: Bye Week
Season Stats: 1,872 passing yards, 80 comp%, 19 TDs, 3 INTs
The bye week didn’t affect Julian Sayin. The sophomore, but first-time starting quarterback is second or third in terms of odds at most sports books. Sayin is coming off his best game of the season at Wisconsin.
Sayin tied a season-high four passing touchdowns, set a new high for passing yards (393), total yards (400), and completion percentage (85.7%). Sayin has 11 touchdown passes to zero interceptions over the past four games.
Last Game: Bye Week
Season Stats: 49 receptions, 602 yards, 12.3 ypc, 8 total TDs
Jeremiah Smith‘s odds dropped post bye week from +3000 to +4000, but his path to win the Heisman hasn’t changed. Smith has been phenomenal, but the only problem is Julian Sayin has been too.
If Sayin throws an interception or two, and Smith has a touchdown or two, plus some big plays in the same game and Ohio State wins, say Michigan, for example, then Smith will gain massive ground. If Sayin continues his play, Smith will likely be one of the odd men out in a crowded Heisman field with five regular season games left.
Last Game: Bye Week
Season Stats: 1,553 passing yards, 279 rushing yards, 17 total TDs, 1 INT
Gunner Stockton was one of the players who saw his odds drop during the bye week from +1400 to +1800. Georgia is coming off a 43-35 win versus Ole Miss where Stockton totaled a career-high five touchdowns (4 passing, 1 rushing). Stockton has 17 total touchdowns to one interception on the year and will look to keep the good times going against Florida.
Last Game: 304 passing yards, 91 rushing yards, 5 total TDs vs Syracuse (41-16 win)
Season Stats: 1,480 passing yards, 651 rushing yards, 19 total TDs, 1 INT
When I put Hayes King on here last week at +8000, I didn’t expect him to go off for five touchdowns and 395 total yards against Syracuse. King set season-highs in passing yards (304), passing touchdowns (3), passer rating (195.0), and QBR (93.2).
King has 19 total touchdowns (12 rushing, 7 passing) and over 2,000 yards this season in what’s been one of the best program starts in history. This is the first time the Yellow Jackets are 8-0 since 1966 and Saturday was the first home game as a top 10 team since 2009!
Last Game: 263 passing yards on 24/44, 1 passing TD at #13 Oklahoma (34-26 win)
Season Stats: 1,864 passing yards, 376 rushing yards, 14 total TDs, 1 INT
Trinidad Chambliss may have only threw one touchdown against Oklahoma on Saturday, but he recorded his fifth game of 300-plus yards over the past six starts. Chambliss has been impressive in back-to-back road starts and has over 2,000 yards in six games whereas other quarterbacks on this list have an extra two games on Chambliss (Austin Simmons started the season).
The Rebels have three straight home games versus South Carolina, The Citadel, and Florida before wrapping up the regular season at Mississippi State. Chambliss will have a case if Ole Miss ends up in the SEC Championship and he stat pads along the way, and with only one loss to Georgia, there is an outside chance.
Stock Up
Last Game: 129 passing yards, 20 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD vs #15 Missouri (17-10 win)
Season Stats: 1,698 passing yards, 458 rushing yards, 20 total TDs, 5 INTs
Vanderbilt’s 8-1 start is the best since 1941 and Diego Pavia is reaping all the benefits. Pavia has become one of college football’s biggest stars this season and the resurgence of the Commodores is only comparable to the Indiana Hoosiers this season.
While Pavia has three consecutive games under 200 passing yards, the Vandy quarterback has five total touchdowns in that stretch and two wins over ranked opponents in back-to-back weeks. Vanderbilt has three ranked wins on the year and can add a fourth when they visit Texas this upcoming weekend.
Last Game: 304 passing yards, 91 rushing yards, 5 total TDs vs Syracuse (41-16 win)
Season Stats: 1,480 passing yards, 651 rushing yards, 19 total TDs, 1 INT
Georgia Tech is 8-0 for the first time since 1966 and Saturday was the first home game as a top 10 team since 2009. The program is on the up and up, a lot of thanks to King’s season. After five touchdowns against Syracuse, King was the biggest riser going from +8000 to +2500 — a payout difference of $5,500 for the $100 bettor!
The Yellow Jackets go on the road to NC State and Boston College over the next two games, then host Pitt and neutral field contests with interstate rival Georgia. If Georgia Tech goes 12-0 and he obliterates the Bulldogs in the regular season finale, then King has a case, but it would be a Heisman that no one saw coming.
Stock Down
Last Game: Bye Week
Season Stats: 1,758 passing yards, 61.5 comp %, 16 total TDs, 4 INTs
If there is one player that I think took a hit during the bye week, it was CJ Carr. The Notre Dame quarterback is coming off his worst outing of the season where he threw one touchdown, one interception, and 136 yards on 16-of-26. It was his worst QBR (32.0) and passer rating (110.5) on the season. Carr went from +3500 to +4000 meaning his odds are the same as Jeremiah Smith’s to win the Heisman. I don’t agree with that. I’d vote Smith.
My Heisman Picks
I picked Carson Beck and Dante Moore to pick the Heisman over the last eight weeks, and within the past four games, those odds are shot.
Right now, Diego Pavia (+850), Haynes King (+2500), and Marcel Reed (+600) as the three hottest bets/picks in the market, but I am going a different direction. Every week, I continue to miss out on the Fernando Mendoza and Indiana Hoosier train — but it’s about time I get involved.
Indiana has a smooth remaining schedule, back-to-back road games at Maryland and Penn State, then host Wisconsin, and ending at Purdue. Those four teams are a combined 11-19.
If Mendoza and the Hoosiers can blow three or all four of those teams out, like they are expected to, and Mendoza posts double-digit touchdowns to one or fewer interceptions in that four-game span, then he will close as the favorite entering conference championship season with a date versus Ohio State. If Indiana beats Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, he’s my Heisman for sure.
I will take Mendoza to win the Heisman and Indiana to win the National Championship. Those odds are +260 and +600 at DraftKings and a little different elsewhere, but Indiana ranks second in terms of odds to win it all universally and Mendoza a top two favorite.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule!
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