SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Notre Dame did not beat USC on the margins. The No. 21 Irish (6-2) beat the No. 10 Trojans (6-1) in all facets. They outright won.
It is a worthwhile distinction, recognizing a fluke versus acknowledging a better team. A game with a five-to-zero turnover differential and the team that is plus-five in turnovers also returning a kickoff for a touchdown may be a result that would usually fall on the fluke side of the ledger.
Notre Dame was simply better than USC on Saturday night, winning 48-20. And the Irish may have known as much beforehand.
“We kind of sensed it on Sunday,” junior running back Audric Estimé said after taking 22 carries for 95 yards and two touchdowns. “We knew that this would be a good game.
“When USC comes or we go to USC, it’s always a whole different atmosphere. We had a great week of preparation, and we knew something big was about to happen.”
That something big had its big moments, most notably Xavier Watts’s two interceptions, both returned deep into Trojans territory. And those were outliers, USC quarterback Caleb Williams throwing one interception for every 87.7 career pass attempts and only one every 127.7 pass attempts during his Trojans tenure (six picks on 766 throws). Saturday night, he threw three interceptions on 37 throws, one turnover every 12.3 pass attempts.
Turning over Williams three separate times was even further on the probability tail than that makes it seem, once realizing Notre Dame has picked off opposing quarterbacks once every 36.3 pass attempts during Al Golden’s time as Irish defensive coordinator, covering 20 games. Pulling in one pass from the defending Heisman Trophy winner may have made sense, but three, that could never be anticipated nor would it likely be replicated.
“We were able to capitalize off — I’m sure [Williams] would call them mistakes,” Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman said. “He doesn’t want to throw the ball to our defenders. We were able to capitalize off them, instead of just having [pass breakups] or almost(s). Our guys turned those into takeaways, which were huge for our entire team.”
But the Irish did more than that.
They sacked Williams six times for a total loss of 44 yards. Heading into the weekend, USC was giving up an average of 1.83 sacks per game, 11 sacks in six games for a total loss of 80 yards.
“Be aggressive,” Freeman said of the defensive front’s approach. “Roll guys, we want to roll guys. I told [defensive line coach Al] Washington, when you see [USC] sub, we need to roll our guys, get some fresh guys in there. We have to have relentless rushers against Caleb Williams, and we were able to do that, and it was a whole group of guys that were able to really get pressure on him.”
Compare that quote -- "I don't know if there is a perfect answer to stopping Caleb Williams." -- to Marcus Freeman's frustration with defending the Heisman Trophy winner a year ago.https://t.co/0j6bQexqa5
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 15, 2023
And Notre Dame did not give up a single sack. The Trojans had ranked No. 4 in the country with 3.67 sacks per game and No. 2 in the country with 9.5 tackles for loss per game, instead managing just one for a loss of one yard on Saturday night.
“They take a lot of pride in what they do,” Freeman said of the Irish offensive line. “They want the challenge, they embrace the challenge.”
The Irish won on both sides of the line of scrimmage, the single-most telling statement of any game, no matter the turnover differential or other unsustainable trends.
A week ago, it could be argued Louisville barely beat Notre Dame, despite the lopsided 33-20 score that was actually 33-13 until a meaningless Irish touchdown in the closing minutes. The Cardinals won 57 of 109 snaps before garbage time, getting by almost entirely thanks to plays on the margins, as in multiple Sam Hartman turnovers.
It cannot be argued Notre Dame barely beat USC. If considering garbage time to be when the Irish took possession with a three-score lead and 4:49 left in the game, they won 67 of 118 plays, or 56.8 percent of the game. Even that may sound like a slimmer victory than expected, but realize the difference is 16 plays. Notre Dame beat USC by 16 plays, not by one or two or even a handful.
Marcus Freeman embraces the moment in the tunnel with Notre Dame fans pic.twitter.com/ARwlJzPaiq
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 15, 2023
Even when the plays mattered most, the Irish outplayed the Trojans. Notre Dame’s five quality possessions before garbage time (of 10 possessions total) tallied 31 points, an average of 6.2 points per quality drive. USC turned five quality possessions before garbage time (of 12 possessions total) into 20 points, an average of 4 points per quality drive.
There can be no taking away from the Irish celebration Saturday night. The sixth straight win against USC in South Bend left no doubt whatsoever who the better team was on this occasion.
“We were thinking we have to reach our full potential this week,” Estimé said. “Past couple weeks, 2-3 weeks, we came up short of reaching our full potential.
“We’re not really chasing wins, we’re chasing our full potential.”
MOST UNDERRATED PLAY OF THE NIGHT
Hartman found senior receiver Chris Tyree for a 46-yard touchdown to give Notre Dame a 31-13 lead. That may seem superfluous, an 18-point lead late in the third quarter, but the Trojans had scored 10 straight points. If the Irish stalled at midfield, USC star freshman Zachariah Branch could spring loose on the punt return to gift Williams ideal field position. Branch had come one tackle away from a touchdown on the previous punt, one of two times on Saturday that Notre Dame punter Bryce McFerson had to make the touchdown-saving takedown of Branch.
But Hartman found Tyree for his second touchdown pass of the night, a route similar to one Tyree used for a touchdown about half the length in the home opener against FCS-level Tennessee State.
“All week we kind of had a bead on some of their coverages of what they might run to certain formations and got one there,” Hartman said. “It’s a credit to him. I’m so glad you asked about [Tyree].
“You don’t see that anywhere really ever. Older guy like that, his persistence, who he is as a man will take him so much further than anyone can ever know, and that’s something that I’ll always be forever grateful for him. To be an older guy and have some struggles and have to change positions like that — he’s had some bad stuff and some drops and some things, you’re like, ‘Okay man, you got to make that play.’ — He just kept showing up.
Tyree’s touchdown gave Notre Dame a 31-13 lead that meant USC would need to more than double its day’s output in less than 19 minutes without giving up any more points to the Irish. It was not impossible, but it was exceedingly unlikely.
"One of the best defensive performances I've ever seen, against one of the best offenses in the country." - Sam Hartman
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 15, 2023
QUOTE OF THE GAME
Is there anything Hartman doesn’t think of?
On the field in a postgame interview broadcast on the Notre Dame Stadium video board, Hartman was asked about building a winning streak after the idle week. He pivoted his answer to an immediate concern.
“Everybody, be safe, don’t drink and drive,” he said to a field full of fans. “Let’s goooo!!”
