This might have been a good year for the old four-team College Football Playoff.
I’m serious. That’s how good I feel about the top four seeds in this year’s bracket — and how many questions I have for the other eight teams in the field. If we get chalk with No. 1 Indiana, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Texas Tech as the four semifinal participants, I’ll be thrilled. I genuinely believe these are the best teams in the country right now, and I think they’re the four teams with the best chances to win a national championship.
That’s not to say another team can’t get hot and go on a run. Oklahoma’s got a heck of a defense that could make life hell for any opposing quarterback (including the potential Heisman Trophy winner, Fernando Mendoza). Oregon’s offensive skill players are unbelievably talented. And Ole Miss might have a whole us-against-the-world thing going on.
But, as you’ll see with my bracket, I trust the top four seeds more than I trust everyone else.
Let’s start with the first round. I’ve got Oregon beating James Madison and Ole Miss taking care of Tulane in two potentially lopsided first-round matchups. I’ve also got Miami beating Texas A&M at Kyle Field in a game that features two explosive offenses with (at times) mistake-prone quarterbacks. That will be a fun but sometimes-messy game, and I think Carson Beck comes up with the big play with the game on the line. I’ve also got Oklahoma defeating Alabama for a second time this season in yet another game dominated by defenses that force opposing offenses to play ugly.
In the quarterfinal round, I give the edge to all four favorites. The most intriguing matchup is the one we’ll see at the Orange Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Oregon. I can’t wait to watch that (hopefully healthy) Oregon offense against that (expensive-but-worth-it) Texas Tech defense. And while I do think Brent Venables’ defense could be a problem for Mendoza and co., I also think the Indiana defense will completely stifle Oklahoma’s offense (minus a few John Mateer scrambles). Georgia will beat Ole Miss again, and Ohio State will be too efficient and effective on both sides of the ball for Miami to pull off the upset.
A chalky semifinal round is where things get most interesting. These should be two of the best matchups of the entire season. We’ve got Indiana-Texas Tech at the Peach Bowl, a game featuring two football programs that used to simply dream of boasting teams like these. Neither is fluky, either. Indiana has gotten so much better this season when playing against rosters with NFL talent, compared to last season; that’ll come in handy against David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez.
But can Indiana stay healthy enough for a three-game run through the CFP? We know the Hoosiers can hang against Ohio State, Oregon, etc. But can they make it through three straight games of teams like that? I say yes, but it’s definitely a concern. And I’ve got Indiana beating Texas Tech because one of these teams has a great offense and the other does not.
A Georgia-Ohio State Fiesta Bowl game sounds like the kind of semifinal game we’ve come to expect in the four- and 12-team CFP era. It’s two bluebloods squaring off, two teams that know how to win national championships. Ohio State is trying to go back-to-back for the first time since Georgia did it, and it’s only fitting that Ryan Day’s Buckeyes would have to go through Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs to get a chance to do it.
I went back and forth on this game, because Georgia has been playing championship-level football for more than a month now and Gunner Stockton always seems to make clutch plays when he needs to. But I can’t shake the feeling that the Buckeyes’ Big Ten championship game loss to Indiana is going to light a fire under them the same way their loss to Michigan did a season ago. I think Ohio State will return to its dominant form this postseason, with its stifling defense and efficient offense leading the way past Georgia.
That brings us to an all-Big Ten national championship game matchup, one that guarantees a third straight title for the conference. It’s a rematch of that Big Ten championship game, and it seems fitting to end the entire season on this note. Ohio State and Indiana were the top two teams in the country for most of the season. Both had phenomenal defenses. Both had a Heisman Trophy finalist at quarterback and elite receivers for him to throw to. The Buckeyes dominated most of the teams they played this season while the Hoosiers were occasionally tested, but these two teams were so much of the story of the 2025 college football season. And it’d be amazing if we get to see them meet again with one team going for its program’s first national championship (and a perfect season) with the other trying to win back-to-back titles.
I’m taking Indiana. No one outside of Bloomington thought that this program would be back in the Playoff after its history-making season a year ago. And absolutely no one thought this team would be even better than last year’s, ready to close the gap between Indiana and college football’s elite programs. But after what we’ve seen over the past three-plus months, I think they can do just that — if they haven’t already cemented themselves as one of the sport’s best.
I’ve googled Curt Cignetti. I’ve watched him win a lot of football games the past two years. His Hoosiers are always prepared. They are always aggressive but under control. They don’t beat themselves. And I’m not sure anyone else can beat them, either.
