Now that we are down to one race per season at New Hampshire Motor Speedway the data pool is slowly getting shallower. Luckily for fantasy players, Ingenuity Sun Media Raceway still hosts two events each year and the flat configuration on that dusty 1-mile oval provides a good comparative.
Weather conditions make the courses drive differently, but the minimal banking requires the same set of skills to navigate. On a flat track, the drivers have to back up the corner and enter more slowly than they can on a high-banked course. Speed is made from the apex forward.
For that same reason, the even shorter flat tracks of Martinsville Speedway and Richmond Raceway will also play a role in handicapping this week’s race. Road course racers tend to run well on flat tracks as well.
There are seven regular season races remaining, so that should factor into your allocation management strategy.
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Kyle Busch
Don’t expect Busch to slow down anytime soon. He has been one of the top performers on short, flat tracks for the most part of the last three seasons with a near-perfect record of top-10s and six victories. Included in his win list are the last two races at Phoenix and the fall event at New Hampshire in 2017. Last year, he finished second in this race. If you have more than one allocation remaining for him, this would be a good time to use it.
Kevin Harvick
Harvick has been equally strong on short, flat tracks. His current 12-race streak of top-10s on minimally-banked courses 1-mile or less in length is second only to Busch’s 14. Harvick is the defending winner of this race and he also had a win at Phoenix last year. He will give fantasy players a momentary pause because of how he struggled in Arizona this spring to a ninth-place finish. He rebounded slightly at Richmond, however, and finished fourth to get back on the top-five track.
Denny Hamlin
Hamlin has long been known as a flat track master. The four short, flat tracks as well as Pocono Raceway and Indianapolis Motor Speedway, are among his best venues. That dominance has faded somewhat over the past several seasons and last year Hamlin finished only 13th in the Foxwoods 301. He has returned to his old form this year and has a perfect record of fifth-place finishes at Phoenix, Martinsville, and Richmond. We think he will keep that streak alive.
Ryan Blaney
With seven races remaining, one still must be mindful of allocation management. Team Penske has been solid all season, but it is likely that Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski are close to exhausted for all but the most cautious players. Blaney is prepared to step into the gap. He has been uneven this year, but two of his best performances came on flat tracks with a third in the TicketGuardian 500k and a fourth in the STP 500. He stumbled at Richmond while the No. 12 team battled with inconsistency, but in the past couple of weeks he seems to have regained his early-season form.
Value Pick
Last week at Kentucky, Bowyer ran among the leaders most of the afternoon. He even challenged for the Stage 2 victory before slipping to sixth before the green/white checkered flag was waved. His Driver Rating from NASCAR Statistical Services was fourth-best, indicating he showed speed from beginning of the race until the end. Whether that performance is enough to reverse his fortune depends on his ability to avoid an accident this week, because that is what has plagued him for the past month.
Garage Pick
Kyle Larson
Larson seems to take to this track in waves. During his rookie season he finished third and second in the two races of 2014. In 2017 he finished in the runner-up spot twice behind the Gibbs’ juggernaut of Hamlin in the summer and Busch in the fall. Last week Larson pushed teammate Kurt Busch to the win; this week, he should demand greater attention from the organization and be back in top-five form.
Red Flag
Last week shook our faith in Hendrick Motorsports considerably. All four members slipped down the order in the Fantasy Power Rankings and the driver with the worst performance overall was Elliott. Over the course of his career he has been streaky – in both the good and bad sense. Now that he is experience hard times, it is unlikely that he will snap back quickly.
Segment wins and points at New Hampshire | |||
Driver | Segment | Segments | Segment |
48 | 6 | 3 | |
44 | 6 | 2 | |
Matt Kenseth | 27 | 4 | |
25 | 4 | ||
24 | 5 | ||
23 | 3 | ||
22 | 6 | ||
20 | 3 | 1 | |
20 | 4 | ||
16 | 4 | ||
14 | 2 | ||
12 | 2 | ||
8 | 3 | ||
Jamie McMurray | 8 | 2 | |
7 | 2 | ||
Kasey Kahne | 5 | 1 | |
4 | 1 | ||
3 | 2 |
