This week’s race: Ford EcoBoost 400
Other Notable Names: Ford 400
Homestead was added to the NASCAR schedule in 1999, but if suffered an identity crisis during its first four years. Originally conceived as a 1.5-mile version of Indianapolis Motor Speedway with four distinct corners, it did not make for very good racing—unless one happened to be a Tony Stewart fan, who swept both events.
In 2001, it was transformed to a true oval, but still had minimal banking. Track officials still were not very happy with the competition, so the course underwent another change after the 2002 season. The two previous versions of this track share nothing in common with the current configuration, so all of the stats referenced below are from 2003 until today.
Homestead is one of NASCAR’s unique tracks. Along with the egg-shaped Darlington Raceway and the concrete high banks of Dover International Speedway, there are no true comparatives, and that makes this a fitting venue for a winner-take-all race. Drivers need to test on this course in order to excel, but they do not bring a lot of preconceived notions with them.
There is also a long list of varying agendas. The Chasers, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Newman have to worry about one another. Drivers like Marcos Ambrose, Kyle Larson, and Trevor Bayne have nothing to lose by going all out for a victory. Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards, Brad Keselowski, and Matt Kenseth want revenge for last week’s elimination from the Chase, while everyone else in the field either wants a win or solid finish to propel them into the off-season.
10 best drivers at Homestead
Over the past three races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track (current configuration only).1. Martin Truex Jr. (tied with Bowyer)
Last three races average finish at Homestead: 4.33
Career avg. finish: 9.2 in 9 attempts
Truex and Bowyer have identical three-year averages at Homestead, but the tie-breaker goes to the overall record of Junior. With the exception of a pre-rookie warm-up back in 2004, he has never finished worse than 11th and has seven top-10s in his last eight starts. There are no sure things in NASCAR, but Truex has been about as close as a fantasy owner is going to find.
1. Clint Bowyer (tied with Truex)
Last three races average finish at Homestead: 4.33
Career avg. finish: 11.3 in 8 attempts
Bowyer just needs something to go right. Accidents spoiled what otherwise might have been decent finishes at Texas and Phoenix—tracks on which he had solid records—and his fans have to be concerned the same thing could happen this week. He has been solid at Homestead both lately and during his career and this track is his second-best in terms of average finishes behind the road course of Sonoma.
3. Jeff Gordon
Last three races average finish at Homestead: 5.67
Career avg. finish: 9.9 in 11 attempts
Gordon has several reasons to feel bitter about being eradicated from the Chase, but the most tragic is that he had the best three-year average among the Eliminator 8. He scored his first victory on this track in 2012, however, when he was also well outside of playoff contention and that could be part of his motivation speech to the crew members. He will not win the Cup this year, but he can still show the field he is fantasy relevant.
4. Matt Kenseth (tied with Earnhardt)
Last three races average finish at Homestead: 8.00
Career avg. finish: 13.0 in 11 attempts
There are a lot of ties this week in terms of three-year average finishes. That is not particularly surprising given the relatively small statistical pool, but what is amazing is how consistently well the top 10 has performed. Last year, Kenseth finished second to his new teammate Hamlin and that was his second top-five and third top-10 in four years. Homestead is prone to streaks and Kenseth should earn another this week.
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (tied with Kenseth)
Last three races average finish at Homestead: 8.00
Career avg. finish: 21.9 in 11 attempts
In his last four attempts at Homestead, Earnhardt has gotten progressively stronger each time. He finished 27th in 2010, 11th in 2011, 10th in 2012, and was third last year. He lacks the current momentum to keep that trend alive, but he has enough to keep the top-10 streak going.
6. Kevin Harvick (tied with Edwards)
Last three races average finish at Homestead: 8.67
Career avg. finish: 7.1 in 11 attempts
With Gordon, Kenseth, and Edwards eliminated from the Chase Harvick has the best three-year average among the playoff contenders, but it is not quite as simple as that. He is ranked sixth this week, but both Newman and Hamlin are among the top 10 and Logano finally got a good run on this track last year. NASCAR wanted to make sure no one knew what would happen in the finale and they achieved that goal
6. Carl Edwards (tied with Harvick)
Last three races average finish at Homestead: 8.67
Career avg. finish: 6.6 in 10 attempts
In terms of career finishes, Edwards should be much higher on the chart. He has never finished worse than 14th in 10 career attempts and he was riding a seven-race, top-10 streak entering the 2012 Ford EcoBoost 400. He slipped to 12th that afternoon, which might have been considered an aberration if he had not finished there again in 2013. One of his best attributes is that he has never failed to finish on the lead lap on this track.
8. Tony Stewart
Last three races average finish at Homestead: 9.00 (2 starts)
Career avg. finish: 12.8 in 10 attempts
Stewart won the first two races on this track, but he fell on hard times for a while and earned only four top-10s in the next nine races on two different configurations of the course. It appeared he finally found the groove when he won the 2011 race and with it the championship in a tiebreaker over Edwards. Unfortunately, that is his only top-five since 2004 and it is difficult to predict he will run well this week.
9. Ryan Newman
Last three races average finish at Homestead: 10.67
Career avg. finish: 18.0 in 11 attempts
It will be impossible to talk about Newman’s place in the Chase without some consideration to how he got there; it is the elephant in the room. He may or may not have been able to complete the last-corner pass on Larson cleanly, but he removed all doubt by making contact. The other Chasers will not leave themselves as vulnerable as the rookie and passing three of them this week will be a tall order.
10. Denny Hamlin
Last three races average finish at Homestead: 11.33
Career avg. finish: 11.2 in 9 attempts
Hamlin predicted he would run well in the Eliminator round and he made good on that promise by sweeping the top 10. He won last year’s Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead and expects to have another solid run this week. His fans should be a little concerned about a 24th-place finish in 2012, but one thing is almost certain: he will finish better than he starts because he has done that in all nine Homestead attempts prior to this season.
Others of Note
13. Joey LoganoLast three races average finish at Homestead: 13.67
Career avg. finish: 20.8 in 5 attempts
Logano’s overall record at Homestead would make him an unlikely favorite to win the Chase, but there is nothing normal about this season. Fantasy owners can toss out the old stats and concentrate on current momentum, but for the record Logano has improved in each of his last three starts and it seems likely that the eighth he scored last year is not going to be his career-best at the close of the 2014 Ford 400.
25. Trevor Bayne
Last three races average finish at Homestead: 29.3
Career avg. finish: 29.3 in 3 attempts
Bayne was consistent in his first two attempts at Homestead with a 25th-place finish in 2011 and a 23rd in 2012. He finished exactly one lap off the pace both times and might have kept that streak alive last year if not for a blown engine 40 laps from the end. One chapter closes on the Young Gun this week as he runs his last race with the Wood Bros.; next year he becomes a Roushketeer.
Three-year average finish | |||
Rank | Driver | 3-Year Avg. Finish | Attempts |
1. | 4.33 | 3 | |
1. | 4.33 | 3 | |
3. | 5.67 | 3 | |
4. | 8.00 | 3 | |
4. | 8.00 | 3 | |
6. | 8.67 | 3 | |
6. | 8.67 | 3 | |
8. | 9.00 | 2 | |
9. | 10.67 | 3 | |
10. | 11.33 | 3 | |
11. | 11.33 | 3 | |
12. | 11.50 | 2 | |
13. | 13.67 | 3 | |
13. | 13.67 | 3 | |
13. | 13.67 | 3 | |
16. | 21.33 | 3 | |
16. | 21.33 | 3 | |
16. | 21.33 | 3 | |
19. | 22.00 | 3 | |
20. | 25.50 | 2 | |
21. | 25.67 | 3 | |
22. | 26.00 | 3 | |
23. | 27.67 | 3 | |
24. | 28.33 | 3 | |
25. | 29.33 | 3 | |
26. | 30.50 | 2 | |
27. | 31.00 | 3 | |
28. | 32.00 | 3 | |
28. | 32.00 | 2 | |
30. | 32.67 | 3 | |
31. | JJ Yeley | 36.00 | 3 |
32. | 40.50 | 2 | |
33. | 40.67 | 3 | |
34. | 42.33 | 3 | |
Exercise Caution
Most caution flags: 14, 2004 Ford 400
Fewest caution flags: 3, 2012 Ford EcoBoost 400
Average number of caution flags per race: 8.5
Final Caution, last five races:
November 2013: 232 of 267: debris (Paul Menard car on fire)
November 2012: 115 of 267: 1-car accident in turn 3 (Ricky Stenhouse Jr.)
November 2011: 214 of 267: rain
November 2010: 244 of 267: 2-car accident on frontstretch (Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick)
November 2009: 217 of 267: debris
Most caution laps: 79, 2004 Ford 400
Fewest caution laps: 17, 2012 Ford EcoBoost 400
Average number of caution laps per race: 42.0
Leading the way
Most leaders: 15, 2011 Ford 400Fewest leaders: 7, 2004 Ford 400
Average number of leaders: 9.9
Most lead changes: 26, 2011 Ford 400
Fewest lead changes: 14, 2004 Ford 400
Average number of lead changes: 19.8
Victory Lane
Last five winners (starting position):November 2013: Denny Hamlin (fifth)
November 2012: Jeff Gordon (15th)
November 2011: Tony Stewart (15th)
November 2010: Carl Edwards (second)
November 2009: Denny Hamlin (38th)
Worst starting position for race winner: 38th, Denny Hamlin: 2009 Ford 400
A race at Homestead has been won by the pole sitter 0 times and from the front row 3 times in 11 races.
Recent races won from the pole:
None, outside pole three times:
Carl Edwards, 2010 Ford 400
Greg Biffle, 2004 Ford 400
Bobby Labonte, 2003 Ford 400
Active winners at Homestead
Greg Biffle: 3Carl Edwards: 2
Denny Hamlin: 2
Jeff Gordon: 1
Matt Kenseth: 1
Tony Stewart: 1
Running at the End
The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Homestead race they started:Kevin Harvick (11)
Jamie McMurray (11)
Carl Edwards (10)
Tony Stewart (10)
Denny Hamlin (9)
Clint Bowyer (8)
David Gilliland (8)
Brad Keselowski (6)
AJ Allmendinger (5)
Aric Almirola (4)
Kyle Larson (1)
Danica Patrick (1)
Matt Kenseth failed to finish his first attempt in 2003, but has been running at the end of 10 races since.
Kasey Kahne failed to finish his first attempt in 2004, but has been running at the end of nine races since.
Martin Truex Jr. failed to finish his first attempt in 2004, but has been running at the end of eight races since.
Paul Menard had been running at the end of seven consecutive races until he crashed out of last year’s race.
Reed Sorenson had been running at the end of four consecutive races until he crashed out of the 2009 race.
Great Starts
Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:Kevin Harvick: second (2003)
Jimmie Johnson: third (2003)
Jeff Gordon: fifth (2003)
Tony Stewart: seventh (2003)
Jamie McMurray: ninth (2003)
Clint Bowyer: 10th (2006)
David Ragan: 10th (2007)
