This week’s race: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400
Traditional Name: Chicagoland 400
Other Notable Names: MyAFibRisk.com 400, MyAFibStory.com 400, Tropicana 400, USG Sheetrock 400, LifeLock.com 400, Geico 400
Chicagoland hosts only one race per year, but what a race it is.
It pays to get off to a strong start in the Chase for the Championship and that has happened every year this event has hosted a playoff race. Tony Stewart won in 2011, Brad Keselowski won in 2012 and 2014, Matt Kenseth won in 2013, and Denny Hamlin took the checkers in 2015. All of them were Chase contenders when they won this race.
Chaser’s dominance has not ended only in Victory Lane. Last year and in 2013, Chase contenders swept the top five. In 2014, four of the top-five finishers were Chasers. The only non-playoff contender to finish that well in the past three years finally made it this season: Kyle Larson finished third in the 2014 MyAFibStory.com 400.
This year two of the Chasers are not only making their first appearance in the playoffs, they will make their first NASCAR Cup start at Chicagoland. Chase Elliott and Chris Buescher are unknowns.
The top-five will probably be swept by the elite 16 again, but two drivers to watch for top-10s outside the playoffs are Ryan Newman andRicky Stenhouse Jr.
10 best drivers at Chicagoland
Over the past three races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track.1. Kyle Larson (tied with Ku Busch)
Last three races average finish at Chicagoland: 5.00 (2 starts)
Career avg. finish: 5.0 in 2 attempts
Larson could easily get snookered by his record at Chicagoland. He started his career with a dramatic third-place finish to become the only spoiler in the top five that year. In 2015, he scored another top-10 from outside Chase contention—but there is a big difference between running as a playoff contender. The pressure this week is going to be immense.
1. Kurt Busch (tied with Larson)
Last three races average finish at Chicagoland: 5.00
Career avg. finish: 15.6 in 15 attempts
Busch needs a solid start to kick off the Chase. Since Daytona International Speedway this July, he has struggled to find momentum, but a solid top-five would do wonders toward getting him enough points to advance to round two of the playoffs. He has two of those in his last three Chicagoland starts, but has never won on this track.
3. Brad Keselowski (tied with Kenseth)
Last three races average finish at Chicagoland: 5.33
Career avg. finish: 10.3 in 7 attempts
Keselowski may be the best value among this week’s top-five. He does not quite have the same average as Busch and Larson—but what he does have is a longer history of success on this track with a current, five-race, top-10 streak and two wins.
3. Matt Kenseth (tied with Keselowski)
Last three races average finish at Chicagoland: 5.33
Career avg. finish: 11.3 in 15 attempts
Kenseth fans will be encouraged by his three-year average finish. He is only slightly behind the two drivers tied for the lead this week and has a victory in that span of races. Before that, he had four results outside the top 10 while racing for Roush-Fenway Racing, however.
5. Kyle Busch
Last three races average finish at Chicagoland: 6.00
Career avg. finish: 11.4 in 11 attempts
Busch has a current, four-race top-10 streak going at Chicagoland. He has 12 points over the three bottom drivers in the Chase and nine over several others so he is liable to advance to round two without a lot of drama. He needs to run a consistent, solid race but does not need to win. Notably, however, his one previous victory came in 2008 when the LifeLock.com 400 was set by owner points and the same thing happened this week.
6. Jimmie Johnson
Last three races average finish at Chicagoland: 9.33
Career avg. finish: 9.3 in 14 attempts
Johnson started off perfectly at Chicagoland with four top-fives in his first four starts. He finished sixth in his next attempt, and while he has rarely struggled, two of his last three attempts ended outside the top 10. This is not a must-win event for the No. 48 team, but they have to show at least some speed during the afternoon.
7. Ryan Newman
Last three races average finish at Chicagoland: 9.67
Career avg. finish: 13.8 in 14 attempts
Newman has shown the same legendary consistency at Chicagoland as he has on many tracks this season. He has four top-10s and a 15th in his last five starts and is looking to put last week’s incident at Richmond International Raceway with Tony Stewart behind him. That resolve will last until the first time these two drivers bump into one another.
8. Carl Edwards
Last three races average finish at Chicagoland: 11.00
Career avg. finish: 15.1 in 11 attempts
Edwards needs only a solid race this week to put his team in a good position to advance in the Chase. Unfortunately, once drivers get beyond the top seven the three-year average finishes drop below 10th. Edwards has finished 20th, 19th, and 11th in three of his last four Chicagoland attempts.
9. Denny Hamlin
Last three races average finish at Chicagoland: 13.33
Career avg. finish: 17.1 in 10 attempts
Hamlin’s Chicagoland record is much less important than his current momentum, but it cannot be completely ignored. Three of his last five races ended outside the top 15; two of those results were worse than 30th, but all that was washed away last year when he won the MyAFibRisk.com 400.
10. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Last three races average finish at Chicagoland: 14.33
Career avg. finish: 14.3 in 3 attempts
One would be more excited about Stenhouse being ranked 10th this week if not for the fact that his average was 14.3. On tracks that host only one race per year, there is a lot of volatility around the cutoff mark.
26. Austin Dillon
Last three races average finish at Chicagoland: 29.50 (2 starts)
Career avg. finish: 29.5 in 2 attempts
Dillon is the Chase contender with the lowest average finish and that would make him more nervous if not for the fact that two of his rivals have no starts here whatsoever. Still, he may have a couple of sleepless nights thinking about what went wrong last year when he sustained crash damage and finished dead last in 43rd.
Rank | Driver | 3 Yr. Avg. Finish | Attempts |
1. | 5.00 | 3 | |
1. | 5.00 | 2 | |
3. | 5.33 | 3 | |
3. | 5.33 | 3 | |
5. | 6.00 | 3 | |
6. | 9.33 | 3 | |
7. | 9.67 | 3 | |
8. | 11.00 | 3 | |
9. | 13.33 | 3 | |
10. | 14.33 | 3 | |
| |||
11. | 14.67 | 3 | |
12. | 15.00 | 3 | |
13. | 15.67 | 3 | |
14. | 16.33 | 3 | |
15. | 16.67 | 3 | |
16. | 20.00 | 3 | |
16. | 20.00 | 3 | |
18. | 21.33 | 3 | |
19. | 21.50 | 2 | |
20. | 21.67 | 3 | |
21. | 22.33 | 3 | |
22. | 24.00 | 3 | |
23. | 25.33 | 3 | |
24. | 26.33 | 3 | |
25. | 28.00 | 3 | |
26. | 29.50 | 2 | |
27. | 32.67 | 3 | |
28. | 35.67 | 3 | |
29. | 36.00 | 2 | |
30. | 37.00 | 2 | |
30. | 37.00 | 3 | |
32. | 37.50 | 2 | |
Drivers with Only One Start | |||
| 22.00 | 1 | |
| 28.00 | 1 | |
| 37.00 | 1 | |
| 38.00 | 1 | |
| 39.00 | 1 | |
Exercise Caution
Most caution flags: 10 (2 times), 2005 USG Sheetrock 400, 2001 Tropicana 400Fewest caution flags: 4 (2 times), 2012 Geico 400, 2010 LifeLock.com 400
Average number of caution flags per race: 7.3
In 2016: 7.7
Final Caution, last five races:
September 2015: Lap 259 of 267: Debris (from Matt DiBenedetto)
September 2014: Lap 259 of 267: 2-car accident on frontstretch (Danica Patrick and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.—who were dating at the time)
September 2013: Lap 241 of 267: 2-car accident in turn four (Paul Menard and Justin Allgaier)
September 2012: 189 of 267: 1-car accident in turn 1 (Jeff Gordon)
September 2011: 214 of 267: debris
Most caution laps: 56, 2001 Tropicana 400
Fewest caution laps: 21, 2010 LifeLock.com 400
Average number of caution laps per race: 34.5
In 2016: 42.3
Leading the way
Most leaders: 16, 2013 Geico 400Fewest leaders: 6, 2009 LifeLock.com 400
Average number of leaders: 9.8
In 2016: 8.6
Most lead changes: 25, 2013 Geico 400
Fewest lead changes: 10 (2 times), 2010 LifeLock.com 400, 2009 LifeLock.com 400
Average number of lead changes: 17.0
In 2016: 17.0
Victory Lane
Last five winners at Chicagoland (starting position):September 2015: Denny Hamlin (29th)
September 2014: Brad Keselowski (25th)
September 2013: Matt Kenseth (10th)
September 2012: Brad Keselowski (13th)
September 2011: Tony Stewart (26th)
Worst starting position for race winner: 32nd, Kevin Harvick 2002 Tropicana 400
A race at Chicagoland has been won by the pole sitter 1 time and from the front row 1 time in 15 races.
Active winners at Chicagoland:
Tony Stewart: 3
Kevin Harvick: 2
Brad Keselowski: 2
Kyle Busch: 1
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 1
Jeff Gordon: 1
Matt Kenseth: 1
Ryan Newman: 1
Denny Hamlin: 1
Top-10 All-time Winners:
Tony Stewart: 3
Kevin Harvick: 2
Brad Keselowski: 2
Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin, Ryan Newman, David Reutimann, and Denny Hamlin: 1
First time winners at Chicagoland:
None, second victories twice:
2010: David Reutimann, LifeLock.com 400
2001: Kevin Harvick, Tropicana 400
Similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks (Chicagoland, Atlanta, Charlotte, Texas, Las Vegas, Kansas, and Kentucky Speedway)
All time
Jimmie Johnson: 25
Jeff Gordon: 16
Dale Earnhardt, Sr.: 14
Tony Stewart: 12
Matt Kenseth: 11
Richard Petty: 11
Bobby Allison: 11
Mark Martin: 10
Cale Yarborough: 10
Brad Keselowski: 9
Carl Edwards: 9
Kyle Busch: 9
Darrell Waltrip: 9
Running at the End
The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Chicagoland race they started:Kevin Harvick (15 – all races run at Chicagoland)
Matt Kenseth (14 - all)
Carl Edwards (11)
David Ragan (9)
AJ Allmendinger (7)
Brad Keselowski (7)
Danica Patrick (4)
Trevor Bayne (3)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (3)
Michael Annett (2)
Alex Bowman (2)
Austin Dillon (2)
Kyle Larson (2)
Matt DiBenedetto (1)
Joey Gase (1)
Brian Scott (1)
Landon Cassill parked in his first start in 2010, but he has been running at the end of the last five races he started.
Tony Stewart crashed in his first start in 2001, but he has been running at the end of the last 14 races he started.
Regan Smith had been running at the end of three races before he blew an engine in 2012—his latest Chicagoland start.
Great Starts
Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:Kevin Harvick: 1 (2001^ and 2002)
Kyle Larson: 3 (2014)
Jimmie Johnson: 4 (2002)
Ryan Newman: 5 (2002)
Reed Sorenson: 7 (2006)
Matt Kenseth: 7 (2001^)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: 8 (2013)
Jamie McMurray: 8 (2003)
Kurt Busch: 8 (2001)
Clint Bowyer: 9 (2006)
Ryan Newman won the pole in 2002 and finished fifth; he won the race the following year.
^ Inaugural race at this track.
Current Streaks
At ChicagolandBrad Keselowski, five top-10s
Kyle Busch, four top-10s
Matt Kenseth, three top-10s
Kurt Busch, three top-10s
Kyle Larson, two top-10s
Joey Logano, two top-10s
Denny Hamlin, two top-10s
Similarly-configured, 1.5- and two-mile tracks
Kurt Busch, 13 top-10s
Kevin Harvick, seven top-10s
Matt Kenseth, three top-10s
Brad Keselowski, three top-10s
Martin Truex Jr., two top-10s
Ryan Newman, three top-10s
In 2016
Denny Hamlin, eight top-10s
Joey Logano, five top-10s
Kevin Harvick, four top-fives
Kyle Larson, three top-threes
Brad Keselowski, three top-10s
Martin Truex Jr., two top-fives
Kasey Kahne, two top-10s
