This week’s race: Pennsylvania 400
Traditional Name: Pennsylvania 400
Other Notable Names: Windows 10 400, Purolator 500, Miller Genuine Draft 500, AC Spark Plug 500
If it seems like we just did this…that’s because we did.
The Northeast has harsh winters that occasionally come early and sometimes stay late, so Pocono Raceway’s two events have always been run close to one another. Only six races have transpired since the checkers waved over the Axalta We Paint Winners 400 and half of them might factor into the handicap of this week’s race. NASCAR visited the flat tracks of New Hampshire Motor Speedway and Indianapolis Motor Speedway in the past two weeks. They were at the road course of Sonoma Raceway five weeks ago and the skill required to go fast on road courses is often the same as flat tracks.
Next week NASCAR head to Watkins Glen. Only five races separate the two road courses. Two weeks later, the series is at Michigan International Speedway with only seven races between those two events. Summer is the season of repetition.
10 best drivers at Pocono
Over the past six races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track.1. Jeff Gordon
Last six races average finish at Pocono: 6.60 (5 starts)
Career avg. finish: 9.8 in 46 attempts
Pocono is one of five tracks on which Gordon has a better-than-10th-place, career-average finish. In 46 starts there, he has dominated occasionally and always run strong. Predicting a win for a part time driver is a bold move, but if he has track position at the end and the race does not have a late restart, he could visit Victory Lane for a seventh time and pad his record.
2. Brad Keselowski
Last six races average finish at Pocono: 8.83
Career avg. finish: 12.0 in 13 attempts
Notably, Pocono is Keselowski’s fifth-best track as well as Gordon’s. If he keeps running like he did in the past two races that will change, however. Keselowski finished second in this race last year and was third after winning the pole this June. Equally important, he has consistency and all but one of his Pocono attempts ended on the lead lap.
3. Kyle Larson
Last six races average finish at Pocono: 9.40 (5 starts)
Career avg. finish: 9.4 in 5 attempts
When a driver starts their career at Pocono with a top-five finish, they almost always keep their strength throughout the entire career. Anything can happen in Modern Day NASCAR, but Larson has never finished worse than 12th on this course, which makes it a great place to come one week after climbing into Chase contention.
4. Kurt Busch
Last six races average finish at Pocono: 10.33
Career avg. finish: 14.7 in 30 attempts
With a fill-in crew chief this June, Busch scored his third career Pocono victory. He did not have the best car all afternoon and hovered around the high single digits and low-teens until surging late. That offset last year’s Windows 10 400 crash-marred 37th-place finish and keeps him among the top-five in Pocono’s three-year averages.
5. Jamie McMurray
Last six races average finish at Pocono: 12.00
Career avg. finish: 19.0 in 27 attempts
A testament to the difficulty of Pocono might be found in the fact that the driver with the fifth-best, three-year average finish has three results of 15th or worse in that span of time. That is balanced by three top-10s that make McMurray an interesting—albeit risky—proposition.
6. Greg Biffle
Last six races average finish at Pocono: 12.33
Career avg. finish: 15.7 in 27 attempts
Biffle had a three-race, top-10 streak going entering last week’s Crown Royal 400 at Indy. An accident robbed him of another strong run, which makes Pocono so important. He needs to rebound quickly to avoid losing the precious momentum that was so hard to obtain.
7. Clint Bowyer
Last six races average finish at Pocono: 12.83
Career avg. finish: 14.5 in 21 attempts
Two of Bowyer’s last three Pocono races ended outside the top 15, but he was strong enough in the other four events to hang onto a top-10 ranking. While his result is in question racing for a moderately-funded team, he has finished better than he started in his last six attempts.
8. Joey Logano
Last six races average finish at Pocono: 13.17
Career avg. finish: 15.2 in 15 attempts
Pocono is prone to strategy calls. Last August, Logano ran out of gas while leading the field and ultimately finished 20th. That would have been his third straight top-five; he added another this June and has as much momentum as anyone else in the field.
9. Kevin Harvick
Last six races average finish at Pocono: 14.33
Career avg. finish: 14.0 in 31 attempts
If not for a blown engine in this race last year, Harvick would enter the Pennsylvania 400 with a 14-race streak of results 17th or better. Strength is good for a fantasy driver. Consistency is better, and when they are combined, they contribute to a winning roster. Harvick finished second in back-to-back races in 2014/2015.
10. Ryan Newman
Last six races average finish at Pocono: 15.50
Career avg. finish: # in 31 attempts
Consistency has been a hallmark of Newman’s career for much of his life. He entered last June’s Pocono event with a 13-race streak of top-15s until he was sidelined by an accident. He struggled in August as well, but rebounded nicely this spring to finish 12th in the Axalta 400.
Rank | Driver | Avg. Finish | Attempts |
1. | 6.60 | 5 | |
2. | 8.83 | 6 | |
3. | 9.40 | 5 | |
4. | 10.33 | 6 | |
5. | 12.00 | 6 | |
6. | 12.33 | 6 | |
7. | 12.83 | 6 | |
8. | 13.17 | 6 | |
9. | 14.33 | 6 | |
10. | 15.50 | 6 | |
| |||
11. | 15.83 | 6 | |
12. | 16.50 | 6 | |
13. | 17.00 | 6 | |
14. | 17.00 | 6 | |
15. | 19.00 | 6 | |
16. | 19.17 | 6 | |
17. | 19.50 | 2 | |
18. | 20.17 | 6 | |
19. | 20.20 | 5 | |
20. | 20.33 | 6 | |
21. | 20.50 | 6 | |
22. | 21.17 | 6 | |
23. | 24.83 | 6 | |
24. | 25.67 | 3 | |
25. | 26.33 | 6 | |
26. | 27.20 | 5 | |
27. | 27.50 | 6 | |
28. | 27.67 | 6 | |
29. | 28.00 | 5 | |
30. | 29.67 | 6 | |
31. | 30.75 | 4 | |
32. | 31.17 | 6 | |
33. | 31.20 | 5 | |
34. | 32.33 | 3 | |
35. | 33.67 | 3 | |
Drivers with Only One Start | |||
| 4.00 | 1 | |
| 10.00 | 1 | |
| 22.00 | 1 | |
| 25.00 | 1 | |
| 39.00 | 1 | |
| 40.00 | 1 | |
Exercise Caution
Most caution flags: 13 (2 times), 2005 Pennsylvania 500, 1990 Miller Genuine Draft 500Fewest caution flags: 1, 1978 Coca-Cola 500
Average number of caution flags per race: 6.6
In 2016: 7.2
Final Caution, last five races:
June 2016: Lap 124 of 160 - two-car accident in turn 1 (Jimmie Johnson spun to avoid rubbing Casey Mears)
August 2015: Lap 93 of 160 – one-car accident in turn 1 (Alex Kennedy)
June 2015: Lap 142 of 160 – two-car accident in turn one (Ryan Newman and AJ Allmendinger)
August 2014: Lap 154 of 160 – one-car accident in turn two (Kurt Busch)
June 2014: Lap 144 of 160 – three-car accident in turn two (Kasey Kahne, Kyle Busch, and Carl Edwards)
Most caution laps: 57, 2004 Pocono 500
Fewest caution laps: 3, 1978 Coca-Cola 500
Average number of caution laps per race: 31.1
In 2016: 37.6
Leading the way
Most leaders: 24, 1989 AC Spark Plug 500Fewest leaders: 4 (3 times), 2013 Party in the Poconos 400 presented by Walmart, 1985 Van Scoy Diamond Mine 500, 1978 Coca-Cola 500
Average number of leaders: 10.6
In 2016: 8.9
Most lead changes: 56, 1979 Coca-Cola 500
Fewest lead changes: 10, 1998 Pennsylvania 500
Average number of lead changes: 23.9
In 2016: 18.4
Victory Lane
Last five winners at Pocono (starting position):June 2016: Kurt Busch (9)
August 2015: Matt Kenseth (7 – fuel mileage)
June 2015: Martin Truex Jr. (3)
August 2014: Dale Earnhardt Jr. (9)
June 2014: Dale Earnhardt Jr. (8)
Worst starting position for race winner: Carl Edwards (29th) 2005 Pocono 500
A race at Pocono has been won by the pole sitter 15 times and from the front row 24 times in 77 races.
Recent races won from the pole:
June 2013: Jimmie Johnson, Party in the Poconos 400 presented by Walmart (set by NASCAR rule book)
June 2012: Joey Logano, Pocono 400 by #NASCAR
June 2009: Tony Stewart, Pocono 500 (set by NASCAR’s rule book)
June 2008: Kasey Kahne, Pocono 500
July 2006: Denny Hamlin, Pennsylvania 500
June 2006: Denny Hamlin, Pocono 500
July 2003: Ryan Newman, Pennsylvania 500
July 2002: Bill Elliott, Pennsylvania 500 by Pep Boys
June 2001: Ricky Rudd, Pocono 500
Active winners at Pocono
Jeff Gordon: 6
Denny Hamlin: 4
Jimmie Johnson: 3
Kurt Busch: 3
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 2
Carl Edwards: 2
Kasey Kahne: 2
Tony Stewart: 2
Greg Biffle, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Ryan Newman, Martin Truex Jr., and Matt Kenseth: 1 each
Top-10 All-time Winners:
Jeff Gordon: 6
Bill Elliott: 5
Denny Hamlin: 4
Tim Richmond: 4
Rusty Wallace: 4
Darrell Waltrip: 4
Bobby Allison: 3
Geoff Bodine: 3
Dale Jarrett: 3
Jimmie Johnson: 3
Bobby Labonte: 3
Kurt Busch: 3
All flat tracks (Martinsville, Richmond, Phoenix, New Hampshire, Pocono, and Indy):
Jeff Gordon: 27
Jimmie Johnson: 25
Rusty Wallace: 19
Richard Petty: 17
Darrell Waltrip: 15
Denny Hamlin: 14
Kevin Harvick: 14
Tony Stewart: 14
Dale Earnhardt, Sr.: 12
Kurt Busch: 11
First time winners at Pocono:
Denny Hamlin: 2006 Pocono 500
Jeremy Mayfield: 1998 Pocono 500
Running at the End
The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Pocono race they started:Clint Bowyer (21)
Martin Truex Jr. (21)
David Ragan (19)
Brad Keselowski (13)
Regan Smith (10)
Kyle Larson (5)
Jeb Burton (3)
Ryan Blaney (1)
Chris Buescher (1)
Chase Elliott (1)
Brian Scott (1)
Austin Dillon crashed on lap 117 this spring and ended a four-race streak of races in which he was running at the end.
Michael Annett crashed on lap 102 this spring and ended a four-race streak of races in which he was running at the end.
Cole Whitt broke a rear gear on lap 155 this spring and ended a four-race streak of races in which he was running at the end.
Great Starts
Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:Denny Hamlin: 1 (both 2006 races)
Carl Edwards: 1 (2005)
Jimmie Johnson: 3 (2002)
Chase Elliott: 4 (2016)
Kyle Busch: 4 (2005)
Kyle Larson: 5 (2014)
Tony Stewart: 6 (1999)
Ryan Blaney: 10 (2016)
Hamlin also won the pole in his first two races and then started on the outside front row in his third attempt.
Kasey Kahne won the pole in his first attempt in June 2004.
Current Streaks
At PoconoBrad Keselowski, two top-fives
Carl Edwards, two top-10s
Matt Kenseth, three top-10s
On flat tracks (New Hampshire, Phoenix, Pocono, Indy, Richmond, and Martinsville)
Kevin Harvick, four top-10s
Matt Kenseth, four top-10s
Joey Logano, four top-10s
Kyle Busch, two top-10s
Denny Hamlin, two top-10s
Jeff Gordon finished 13th last week at Indy, which snapped a five-race streak of top-10s on this track type.
In 2016
Kevin Harvick, three top-10s
Matt Kenseth, three top-10s
Kyle Busch, two top-10s
Joey Logano, two top-10s
Denny Hamlin, two top-10s
