Spring training is in full swing and with that, draft season is here. That means it was timed to get the talented Rotoworld staff together for another 12-team mixed league mock draft and see how the last few weeks of news and performance has affected the draft pool.
It is a busy time of year for us content creators though and it can be difficult to fill another draft when many of us are constantly drafting. So, I opened up a few spots in this mock to the Rates and Barrels’ Discord channel. Derek Van Riper and Eno Sarris do a tremendous job with their podcast and that Discord has been a great place to find leagues, talk baseball, and establish a wonderful community.
**PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS MOCK DRAFT TOOK PLACE IN THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF MARCH**
Here are the drafters and order:
- Matt Eddy (Baseball America)
- Jorge Montanez (Rotoworld)
- Christopher Crawford (Rotoworld)
- Dave Shovein (Rotoworld)
- Discord Member #1
- Nick Shlain (Rotoworld)
- George Bissell (Rotoworld)
- D.J. Short (Rotoworld)
- Eric Samulski (Rotoworld)
- James Schiano (Rotoworld)
- Discord Member #2
- Discord Member #3
It’s a 20-round draft. We’ll start one catcher, one of each infield position, a corner infielder, a middle infielder, five outfielders, one utility, and nine pitchers. Scoring is standard 5x5 roto. Let’s go!
Round 1
1.01 (1): Bobby Witt Jr., Royals - SS
1.02 (2): Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers - UTIL/P
1.03 (3): Aaron Judge, Yankees - OF
1.04 (4): Elly De La Cruz, Reds - SS
1.05 (5): Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres - OF
1.06 (6): Gunnar Henderson, Orioles - SS**
1.07 (7): Juan Soto, Mets - OF
1.08 (8): Jose Ramirez, Guardians - 3B
1.09 (9): Kyle Tucker, Cubs - OF
1.10 (10): Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks - OF
1.11 (11): Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays - 1B
1.12 (12): Tarik Skubal, Tigers - SP
**Draft had begun after it was reported that Henderson’s intercostal strain could keep him out past opening day and now we know that’s truly in jeopardy.
Very few surprises here besides the aggressiveness on that Tatis pick. Generally, teams are more risk-averse in 15-team drafts because of the scarcity in most positions as one moves through the rounds. That’s not the case in 12-team leagues, like this mock, where there’s far more wiggly room to take your shots.
Tatis is that. Projections love him and he still has one of the highest ceilings of any player in the league. This may be the last year he gets that benefit of the doubt though, since he hasn’t yet reached the same heights he did before his suspension for performance enhancing drugs.
Round 2
2.01 (13): Julio Rodriguez, Mariners - OF
2.02 (14): Yordan Alvarez, Astros - OF
2.03 (15): Mookie Betts, Dodgers - SS/OF
2.04 (16): Francisco Lindor, Mets - SS
2.05 (17): Paul Skenes, Pirates - SP
2.06 (18): Bryce Harper, Phillies - 1B
2.07 (19): Jackson Chourio, Brewers - OF
2.08 (20): Austin Riley, Braves - 3B
2.09 (21): Freddie Freeman, Dodgers - 1B
2.10 (22): Zack Wheeler, Phillies - SP
2.11 (23): Logan Gilbert, Mariners - SP
2.12 (24): Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks - 2B
I had to stop Betts’ fall at pick 15. That was a great value on him with dual infield, outfield eligibility and stable stat-set in one of baseball’s best lineups.
Him moving back to shortstop full-time (allegedly) this season makes me think he’e going to be the one superstar in the Dodgers lineup that they intend to play 145+ games and keep their line moving amidst some load management for Freeman and Ohtani.
Otherwise, that glut after Skenes of Harper, Chourio, and Riley is interesting. They were paired with first round picks Soto, Henderson and Tatis, respectively, and represent the tier of hitters changing.
Harper’s high projected batting average is a good foil for Soto’s, whose average has oscillated a bit over the last few seasons and could wind up on the low side in his first season calling Citi Field home. It will also be vital for George to find speed as the draft moves on since he’s leaving the first two rounds with next to no stolen bases. The same goes for that Guerrero Jr., Alvarez build.
Chourio and Henderson have serious boom potential, but may wind up being a little bit light in home runs and RBI as each are expected to lead-off.
The Riley-Tatis duo might be my favorite here despite the fact that you could argue both were ‘overdrafted’ based on ADP. I already talked about Tatis’ explosive potential and think Riley is currently the most underrated player in the draft room.
He put a slow start behind him last season to hit 16 HR with a .942 OPS over 56 games before his season ended abruptly after breaking his hand on a hit by pitch. The projections are buying the measured bounce back and the Braves lineup should be back to mashing at full strength.
Round 3
3.01 (25): Jackson Merrill, Padres - OF
3.02 (26): Jarren Duran, Red Sox - OF
3.03 (27): Trea Turner, Phillies - SS
3.04 (28): William Contreras, Brewers - C
3.05 (29): Oneil Cruz, Pirates - SS/OF
3.06 (30): Jazz Chisholm Jr., Yankees - 3B/OF
3.07 (31): Garrett Crochet, Red Sox - SP
3.08 (32): Matt Olson, Braves - 1B
3.09 (33): Manny Machado, Padres - 3B
3.10 (34): Rafael Devers, Red Sox - 3B
3.11 (35): Corbin Burnes, Diamondbacks - SP
3.12 (36): Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves - OF
The Merrill, Duran debate has been wracking drafters’ brains all spring. They have razor thin ADPs and just one complete season of being a high-end player each.
There’s probably a slight lean for Duran? I pose that as a question because I’m truly unsure. Merrill’s big advantage over him could be a higher batting average, but we know how unstable batting average is year over year. Especially when Duran’s home park is kind to base hits while Merrill’s suppresses them.
Still, Merrill’s raw power is likely more trustworthy and he’ll drive in more runs hitting in the heart of the Padres’ order behind Tatis and Luis Arraez. It’s truly splitting hairs with them however you slice it.
Moving on, Cruz is probably the most exciting player in this range of the draft. Like, if he hit 40 HR with 20 SB would you be surprised? Also, if he stayed in the same 20-20 range and his strikeout rate regresses back towards 2022 rather than continuing to improve, would you be surprised either? Pairing him with Tatis is pure chaos too, I love it.
The juxtaposition between him, Chisholm and Acuña, who simply no one knows when and where to draft, with that glut of stable veterans Olson, Machado, and Devers is funny. It’s very clear to see the diverging strategies and willingness to accept risk in this draft room.
Round 4
4.01 (37): Kyle Schwarber, Phillies - UT
4.02 (38): James Wood, Nationals - OF
4.03 (39): George Kirby, Mariners - SP***
4.04 (40): Jacob deGrom, Rangers - SP
4.05 (41): Corey Seager, Rangers - SS
4.06 (42): Cole Ragans, Royals - SP
4.07 (43): Wyatt Langford, Rangers - OF
4.08 (44): Pete Alonso, Mets - 1B
4.09 (45): Emmanuel Clase, Guardians - RP
4.10 (46): Jose Altuve, Astros - 2B
4.11 (47): Chris Sale, Braves - SP
4.12 (48): Framber Valdez, Astros - SP
***This round had begun before the ominous news surrounding Kirby’s shoulder injury and trip to the IL to start the season. He is only shut down for two weeks without structural damage, so it may not be a big deal at all. I’d begin to feel comfortable drafting him around pick 120 with that knowledge.
There’s no more divisive player in drafts right now than deGrom. Some analysts have him ranked as highly as SP3 or SP4. Others have him off their draft board entirely. And both viewpoints are completely justified for the most talented pitcher of this generation that’s thrown fewer than 200 innings over the past four seasons.
Yet, this was the perfect spot for him to go. Like I said just above, the clear strategies of risk mitigation had begun to take shape early on. Eric Samulski had been the most risk averse manager to this point with a foundation of Tucker, Lindor, and Machado.
Then boom, he goes over the top and grabs deGrom. That’s a gorgeous start and gives him the ability to take risks on hitters and scoop up all the safe, ‘unexciting’ pitchers that fall. Beautiful, just beautiful.
Also, the first relief pitcher went off the board this round with Clase. While not a surprise at this spot, you probably have a little more leeway to wait on relievers in 12-team leagues compared to 15-teams. Especially given the caliber of players going in this range.
Round 5
5.01 (49): Michael Harris II, Braves - OF
5.02 (50): Marcus Semien, Rangers - 2B
5.03 (51): Gerrit Cole, Yankees - SP****
5.04 (52): Dylan Cease, Padres - SP
5.05 (53): Blake Snell, Dodgers - SP
5.06 (54): Devin Williams, Yankees - RP
5.07 (55): CJ Abrams, Nationals - SS
5.08 (56): Michael King, Padres - SP
5.09 (57): Lawrence Butler, Athletics, OF
5.10 (58): Ozzie Albies, Braves - 2B
5.11 (59): Brent Rooker, Athletics - UT
5.12 (60): Marcus Semien, Rangers - 2B
****This round had begun before the awful news that Cole would be undergoing Tommy John surgery. My thoughts are with any early drafters who’d already spent a high pick on him.
Remember a few rounds before when I said that Soto-Harper build really needed to find some complimentary speed? Well, that’s exactly what George Bissell did in drafting Abrams. He’d fallen a bit past ADP and has a genuine floor around 35 SB. That’s a smash pick with the offensive foundation George already set up for himself. Fantastic pick.
Eric made an outstanding pick here with Butler, too. While there’s some risk in his profile, he has a legitimate shot to go 30-30 and the potential for a superstar type of leap. Eric’s roster can afford any downside flanked by the stable trio of Tucker, Lindor, and Machado. He’s crushing this draft.
Lastly, I want to give myself some flowers here as well with that Albies pick. Second base is by far the weakest positional group heading into this season and I nabbed him 13 picks after Altuve went off the board. For me, those two are practically a toss-up and I’d even lean Albies with Atlanta’s lineup getting back to full health and Altuve apparently moving to left field this season.
Then, as the position thinned, Semien was seemingly panic-picked just two picks later. He’s a fine bounce back candidate, but that’s a bit of a scary proposition entering his age-34 season. Albies is by far my favorite second base target before that position gets messy.
Round 6
6.01 (61): Triston Casas, Red Sox, 1B
6.02 (62): Logan Webb, Giants - SP
6.03 (63): Bryce Miller, Mariners - SP
6.04 (64): Josh Hader, Astros - RP
6.05 (65): Brenton Doyle, Rockies - OF
6.06 (66): Marcell Ozuna, Braves - UT
6.07 (67): Pablo Lopez, Twins - SP
6.08 (68): Luis Robert Jr., White Sox - OF
6.09 (69): Willy Adames, Giants - SS
6.10 (70): Adley Rutchsman, Orioles - C
6.11 (71): Mason Miller, Athletics - RP
6.12 (72): Anthony Santander, Blue Jays OF
Straight up, that Casas pick was wild. Maybe this is more of a me thing because I don’t see it with Casas in 5x5 leagues. His batting average is a huge risk and he’s yet to cash in on what was supposed to be potentially 40 HR power.
Yet, to play devil’s advocate, first base becomes something of a mish-mosh after Alonso and Olson go off the board. Casas probably does have the highest upside from the rest of the lot, just more of a risk than Walker, Naylor. or Bellinger.
Doyle is another player I can’t figure out. The 26-year-old with a career .289 on-base percentage who broke out in Coors Field is a profile I will never target in drafts. Maybe that means I’ll miss out on guaranteed playing time for a potential Platinum Glove capable center fielder and the 30 or more stolen bases that will come with it. So be it. DJ was able to take that risk though with his stable veteran foundation of Ramirez, Olson, and Seager.
Lastly, this is the point in the draft where team needs begin to come more into focus. Matt Eddy had set up a very toolsy, athletic squad that lacked thump.
As a prospect devotee, I’m sure he was staring at Junior Caminero on the board and wanted to shoot for the moon. Yet, it may take Caminero a year or two to reach his power potential. So, he opted for the more secure yet less exciting Santander. That’s a very disciplined decision.
Round 7
7.01 (73): Spencer Schwellenbach, Braves - SP
7.02 (74): Junior Caminero, Rays - 3B
7.03 (75): Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers - SP
7.04 (76): Aaron Nola, Phillies - SP
7.05 (77): Joe Ryan, Twins - SP
7.06 (78): Bailey Ober, Twins - SP
7.07 (79): Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers - SP
7.08 (80): Shota Imanaga, Cubs - SP
7.09 (81): Josh Naylor, Guardians - 1B
7.10 (82): Seiya Suzuki, Cubs - OF
7.11 (83): Cal Raleigh, Mariners - C
7.12 (84): Christian Walker, Astros - 1B
Sticking with Matt’s team, he shocked the draft room by nabbing Schwellenbach as the 19th starting pitcher off the board (including the injured Kirby and Cole). Selective aggressiveness could be key when drafting near the turn. With so much time between picks, tiers can dry up quickly and it’s always good to get ‘your guys’.
I did that with Bryce Miller 10 picks before. He and Schwellenbach are considered to be in the same tier as Pablo Lopez and Imanaga who went in the same range. Neither me nor Matt would have had the opportunity to get these guys at our next picks and each of us needed an arm. No shame in flouting ADP in a situation like that.
On the other hand, Christopher Crawford had Yamamoto fall directly into his lap because the rest of us decided it was time to be aggressive. Yamamoto is probably a tier above the rest of these pitchers I’ve been talking about, there are just some more questions with his workload, as there are with every Dodgers pitcher. Still, the talent and strikeout upside is undeniable.
Values and risk abound when there’s a run like this on pitchers as six went off the board in a row and seven of the first eight picks in the round. All so different too! Glasnow and Ober could not have more different profiles yet have literally identical ADPs.
It’s very important to know your own team and what you need when choosing between very different types of players in the same range.
Round 8
8.01 (85): Freddy Peralta, Brewers - SP
8.02 (86): Matt McLain, Reds - 2B/SS
8.03 (87): Mike Trout, Angels - OF
8.04 (88): Max Fried, Yankees - SP
8.05 (89): Bryan Reynolds, Pirates - OF
8.06 (90): Spencer Strider, Braves - SP
8.07 (91): Riley Greene, Tigers - OF
8.08 (92): Tanner Bibee, Guardians - SP
8.09 (93): Matt Chapman, Giants - 3B
8.10 (94): Ryan Helsley, Cardinals - RP
8.11 (95): Yainer Diaz, Astros - C
8.12 (96): Luis Castillo, Mariners - SP
In my mind, I telegraphed that Trout pick for about three rounds. It was right near his ADP and my team needed a power infusion after taking Carroll and Betts off the jump. He was one of the last players in the pool that could truly touch 40 HR and I’m fine with his huge injury risk at this spot.
George doubled down on pitching chaos this round by taking Strider one round after Glasnow. They form the all-strikeout rotation joining Ragans and Crochet. Heck yeah. That is awesome. Most 12-team leagues will have IL spots to stash injured players and ample waiver wire options week to week. Shoot for the moon and make some magic happen. They can’t all get hurt, right?
Possibly my favorite pick of the whole round, Jorge Montanez did well grab Yainer Diaz there where he did. In general, I like him more than Rutchsman and Raleigh who went off the board a good bit before Diaz.
That’s compounded by the fact that Diaz is the only catcher in the pool who’s projected to be a huge plus in batting average. Those positional unicorns are key in all rotisserie leagues to build a roster that can compete in every category and give Diaz a legitimate leg up on the other catchers in this range.
Round 9
9.01 (97): Mark Vientos, Mets - 3B
9.02 (98): Jordan Westburg, Orioles - 2B/3B
9.03 (99): Royce Lewis, Twins - 3B
9.04 (100): Cody Bellinger, Yankees - 1B/OF
9.05 (101): Willson Contreras, Cardinals - C/1B
9.06 (102): Hunter Greene, Reds - SP
9.07 (103): Roki Sasaki, Dodgers - SP
9.08 (104): Edwin Diaz, Mets - RP
9.09 (105): Justin Steele, Cubs - SP
9.10 (106): Hunter Brown, Astros - SP
9.11 (107): Jared Jones, Pirates - SP
9.12 (108): Dylan Crews, Nationals - OF
It’s perfect that Lewis, Westburg, and Vientos were drafted so close to one another. Westburg probably should get a bump over the other two with his second base eligibility, but these are three difficult players to both rank and evaluate.
Lewis was about to take the world by storm last year before two right leg injuries took over two months from his season and severely hurt his production after he came back ‘healthy’. Vientos might’ve been the best third baseman in the National League after getting the starting nod last May, albeit with some concerning plate discipline and contact metrics. Westburg looked very at home in the heart of the Orioles’ talented lineup, he just doesn’t have any standout skills. This is a fun trio to sort through.
Remember when I said Eric’s team would need ‘unexciting’ pitchers to support deGrom’s volatility? Well, he just double-tapped Fried and Steele to give him a heap of boring yet effective innings to alleviate deGrom’s slow ramp-up and likely missed time. Well done by him again, tremendous execution.
Crews might be my favorite breakout player hiding in plain sight. His surface stats were miserable as a rookie while everything under the hood power and plate discipline wise tells me this is someone that could have 15-20 HR, an acceptable batting average, and 30+ SB. This is a fine place to take a player like that.
Round 10
10.01 (109): Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks - SP
10.02 (110): Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies - SP
10.03 (111): Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles - SP*****
10.04 (112): Bryson Stott, Phillies - 2B
10.05 (113): Christian Yelich, Brewers - OF
10.06 (114): Alex Bregman, Red Sox - 3B/2B?
10.07 (115): Spencer Steer, Reds - 1B/OF
10.08 (116): Bo Bichette, Blue Jays - SS
10.09 (117): Jurickson Profar, Braves - OF
10.10 (118): Vinnie Pasquantino, Royals - 1B
10.11 (119): Jasson Dominguez, Yankees - OF
10.12 (120): Felix Bautista, Orioles - RP
*****I took Rodriguez here during that intermediary time between his velocity was down in that spring start and the team announcing he’d open the season on the IL. I tried to thread the needle and missed, such is life.
There’s definitely some spring optimism in the air with the double-tap of Jared Jones and Cristopher Sanchez over these last two rounds. This is similar to when I was talking about selective aggressiveness earlier when I jumped ADP on Bryce Miller and Matt Eddy did that same on Schwellenbach.
The starting pitcher tiers flatten later in the draft and none were taken the rest of the round after Sanchez and my dart throw on Rodriguez. Following ADP is great, just don’t let it make you too rigid in your approach.
There were some nice shots on Bregman and Bichette bounce backs here, as well as a bet on Yelich’s health. All three of those players feel like good picks in this spot.
However, the surprise pick of this round was Profar. It was reported that he will open the season in the lead-off spot for the Braves, which would give him a big boost until Acuña’s eventual return. Dave Shovein’s team also desperately needed an outfielder. I don’t love the value, but do see the vision.
Round 11
11.01 (121): Yusei Kikuchi , Angels - SP
11.02 (122): Sonny Gray, Cardinals - SP
11.03 (123): Andres Muñoz, Mariners - RP
11.04 (124): Randy Arozarena, Mariners - OF
11.05 (125): Raisel Iglesias, Braves - RP
11.06 (126): Ian Happ, Cubs - OF
11.07 (127): Luis Garcia, Nationals - 2B
11.08 (128): Brandon Nimmo, Mets - OF
11.09 (129): Shane McClanahan, Rays - SP
11.10 (130): Jhoan Duran, Twins - RP
11.11 (131): Jake Burger, Rangers - 1B/3B
11.12 (132): Kodai Senga, Mets - SP
Seeing Kikuchi and Gray drafted next to one another feels a bit dirty. Maybe I’m a little too down on Kikuchi after his torrid run with the Astros last season where he struck out 76 batters across 60 IP, an inconsistent pitcher signing with the Angels will always send a shiver down my spine.
On the other hand, Sonny Gray has the fifth-lowest SIERA among all qualified pitchers over the last two seasons and has been a stalworth for most of the past decade. Ironically, Kikuchi’s SEIRA is sixth-lowest. Maybe these two are closer than I feel despite my strong preference for Gray.
That Ian Happ pick might’ve been my favorite in the entire draft. There’s a good chance he returns similar value to other outfielders like Bryan Reynolds or Riley Greene by seasons’ end and he just went off the board three rounds later.
Over the last three seasons, Happ has averaged 21 homers, 82 runs, 81 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and a .254/.348/.437 slash line. He is remarkably steady.
I’ve given Eric loads of credit for managing risk with his staff in this draft, first drafting deGrom before Steele and Fried. In this round, he stopped McClanahan’s fall down the draft board and that was a perfect play.
McClanahan’s draft cost has crept near the top-100 overall and inside the top-30 starting pitchers. Here, he was the 41st starter off the board which is a much more palatable value given his likely workload limitations.
Round 12
12.01 (133): Anthony Volpe, Yankees - SS
12.02 (134): Sandy Alcantara, Marlins - SP
12.03 (135): Bryan Woo, Mariners - SP
12.04 (136): Adolis Garcia, Rangers - OF
12.05 (137): Carlos Rodon, Yankees - SP
12.06 (138): Steven Kwan, Guardians - OF
12.07 (139): Jack Flaherty, Tigers - SP
12.08 (140): Josh Lowe, Rays - PF
12.09 (141): Tanner Scott, Dodgers - RP
12.10 (142): Nick Castellanos, Phillies - OF
12.11 (143): Ezequiel Tovar, Rockies - SS
12.12 (144): Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs - OF
I wonder what’s going to happen with Volpe this season. He’s been lauded this spring for sustaining his uptick in bat speed he showed through the Yankees’ postseason run. More power with the speed he’s demonstrated so far in his career would make him a great value.
However, he’s swinging and missing more than he did last season. And that’s against triple-A quality pitching according to Baseball Reference’s Opponent Quality Metric. He doesn’t have enough stability in either of his batting average or on-base percentage to afford a significant drop in his contact rate.
It’s remarkable that Alcantara, Woo, Rodon, and Flaherty can have such similar ADP’s. They’ve each taken such different paths to this point and oddly, all come with the prevailing durability risk.
Woo is my favorite of that bunch – and I took him here – because this draft cost bakes in practically all of his risk. Last season, he was the 22nd most valuable starting pitcher in 5x5 leagues with just 135 IP.
I took him as the SP44 here. So, if he either stays healthy all season or makes any meaningful skills improvements, he’ll be worth it here. If he’s able to stay healthy and improve, then this could wind up being the best pick in the draft.
We’ll probably look back on Tanner Scott’s ADP and be shocked by midseason. The Dodgers gave him $72 million and he saved their first win of the season against the Cubs in Tokyo. He will be their closer. Kudos to Dave Shovein for taking him here.
Round 13
13.01 (145): Michael Toglia, Rockies - 1B
13.02 (146): Nick Pivetta, Padres - SP
13.03 (147): Colton Cowser, Orioles - OF
13.04 (148): Robbie Ray, Giants - SP
13.05 (149): Alec Bohm, Phillies - 3B
13.06 (150): Reynaldo Lopez, Braves - SP
13.07 (151): Salvador Perez, Royals - C/1B
13.08 (152): Ryan Walker, Giants - RP
13.09 (153): David Bednar, Pirates - RP
13.10 (154): Eugenio Suarez, Diamondbacks - 3B
13.11 (155): Heliot Ramos, Giants - OF
13.12 (156): Jeff Hoffman, Blue Jays - RP
It’s not very obvious based on his profile, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if Cowser were to break out this season. His fantastic power/speed upside is enough to stomach his questionable swing decisions and all of the Orioles’ right-handed hitters should benefit from “Mount Wall-timore” in left field moving in this season.
I’ve been throwing plenty of praise towards his team and Dave made another tremendous pick here with Robbie Ray. He’s struck out the world this spring and is throwing a new changeup that he learned after reaching out to Tarik Skubal. Secure role, great home park, and strikeout upside make Ray a great bet to beat ADP.
Bohm probably doesn’t get the credit he deserves for being a strong source of hit batting average and counting stats at third base in what should be another great season for the Phillies’ lineup.
This was a strange trio of closers to go off the board in such quick succession with Walker, Bednar, and Hoffman. I considered Walker two rounds ago when I took Jhoan Duran and would have certainly taken him at my spot if he were still on the board. He is certainly a tier above Hoffman who himself is a tier above Bednar.
That was an easy pick for DJ and joined Edwin Díaz to give him a fantastic closer duo.
Round 14
14.01 (157): Isaac Paredes, Astros - 3B
14.02 (158): Jeremy Peña, Astros - SS
14.03 (159): Taylor Ward, Angels - OF
14.04 (160): Xander Bogaerts, Padres - 2B/SS
14.05 (161): Jonathan India, Royals - 2B
14.06 (162): Zach Neto, Angels - SS
14.07 (163): Paul Goldschmidt, Yankees - 1B
14.08 (164): Robert Suarez, Padres - RP
14.09 (165): Andres Gimenez, Blue Jays - 2B
14.10 (166): Brice Turang, Brewers - 2B
14.11 (167): Trevor Megill, Brewers - RP
14.12 (168): Logan O’Hoppe, Angels - C
Something about Paredes leaves a bad taste in my mouth. It’s dangerous to value external conditions – like a new home park – more than a players’ skills and that’s what’s happened for Paredes this offseason with his move from the Cubs to the Astros.
Maybe I’m wrong here though since the Crawford Boxes will make it easy for him to access his extreme pull-power. Still, I will be skeptical until proven wrong.
Peña, Ward, Bogaerts, and India are such a great run of overlooked, stable veteran bats. All feel like fantastic bets to meet or exceed their projections and deliver plenty of counting stats all season long. While these are not exciting picks, they are winning picks.
Gimenez and Turang going off the board in consecutive picks is fascinating. Turang’s ADP has fallen steadily this spring despite his likelihood to steal 40 or more bases. Simply put, he is not a good hitter and likely never will be and there’s a chance Caleb Durbin pushes him for playing time at some point this season. Gimenez has a better profile and more secure role.
Round 15
15.01 (169): Zach Eflin, Orioles - SP
15.02 (170): Masyn Winn, Cardinals - SS
15.03 (171): Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays - SP
15.04 (172): Bowden Francis, Blue Jays - SP
15.05 (173): Christopher Morel, Rays - 2B/3B
15.06 (174): Dansby Swanson, Cubs - SS
15.07 (175): Gavin Williams, Guardians - SP
15.08 (176): Kerry Carpenter, Tigers - OF
15.09 (177): Lane Thomas, Guardians - OF
15.10 (178): Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks - SP
15.11 (179): Parker Meadows, Tigers - OF
15.12 (180): Will Smith, Dodgers - C
Go back in time one year and show someone this draft board. Their jaw would drop if they saw that Gausman and Francis were drafted back-to-back.
That’s fair though given Francis’ secure spot in the Blue Jays’ rotation and Gausman’s continued fall from grace. Conventional wisdom would say he’s a solid bounce back candidate, but his diminished stuff and lack of a meaningful third pitch make me think that’s a poor bet.
Yet, I wouldn’t consider either of them or the last handful of starting pitchers taken over Gavin Williams. He has all the makings of a potential ace: blazing fastball, wipeout slider, prospect pedigree, and a secure rotation spot.
He’s made meaningful changes to his pitch shapes this spring too with his fastball adding two inches of IVB and his slider coming in a few ticks slower with more movement. He also has near league-best extension at over seven feet. It’s not hard to see him being a top-20 starting pitcher by year’s end if he can stay healthy.
Round 16
16.01 (181): Seth Lugo, Royals - SP
16.02 (182): Cedanne Rafaela, Red Sox - SS/OF
16.03 (183): J.T. Realmuto, Phillies - C
16.04 (184): Ryan Pepiot, Rays - SP
16.05 (185): Shea Langeliers, Athletics - C
16.06 (186): Victor Robles, Mariners - OF
16.07 (187): Shane Baz, Rays - SP
16.08 (188): Reese Olson, Tigers - SP
16.09 (189): Xavier Edwards, Marlins - SS
16.10 (190): Michael Busch, Cubs - 1B
16.11 (191): Clay Holmes, Mets - SP/RP
16.12 (192): Brandon Lowe, Rays - 2B
One of the greatest mysteries this draft season is Seth Lugo’s ADP never rising past this range. All he did last year was turn in a 3.00 ERA over 200 IP and be the eighth most valuable starting pitcher in fantasy baseball. Sure, there’s little strikeout upside and his ERA will regress, but he is a very steady option that should be trusted.
Reese Olson also falls in that bucket for me. He’s a command artisan with two secondary pitches that had better than a 40% whiff rate last season and has a very pitcher-friendly home park. I’m trying to leave as many drafts with him as possible.
This is also a point in the draft where some clear strategies have taken shape. Take Dave Shovein’s team, for example. He added speedster Xaver Edwards to a roster with Elly De La Cruz, Cody Bellinger, Randy Arozarena, and Andrés Giménez. That’s a foundation that could easily dominate the stolen base category.
Round 17
17.01 (193): Jorge Soler, Angels - OF
17.02 (194): Tyler O’Neill, Orioles - OF
17.03 (195): Evan Carter, Rangers - OF
17.04 (196): Kenley Jansen, Angels - RP
17.05 (197): Garrett Mitchell, Brewers - OF
17.06 (198): Spencer Arrighetti, Astros - SP
17.07 (199): Clarke Schmidt, Yankees - SP
17.08 (200): Jeffrey Springs, Athletics - SP
17.09 (201): Tyler Stephenson, Reds - C
17.10 (202): Jackson Holliday, Orioles - 2B
17.11 (203): Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Reds - 1B
17.12 (204): Matt Shaw, Cubs - 2B/3B/SS
Remember last season when Evan Carter was a top-100 pick? Clearly that was too aggressive after just a 40 game MLB sample where he showed his immense ceiling and also some genuine flaws. He got injured, showed those flaws – extreme passivity at the plate and inability to hit left-handed pitching – and was a huge flop.
Now, he will reportedly start the season on the strong side of the Rangers’ center field platoon and is a fun sleeper pick as someone that could flirt with a 20-20 season if things fall right.
Garrett Mitchell is in the same boat. He has 13 HR and 20 SB in 113 MLB games and set career bests in both strikeout and walk rate last season when he was a regular down the stretch. His strikeout rate is still above 30%, but his walk rate rate climbing above 11% made that tenable. He’s a fun dart throw.
As are Jackson Holliday, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Matt Shaw. I grabbed Holliday because Gunnar Henderson’s status for opening day remains murky and his position on the Orioles’ opening day roster seems secure. He has the skills and profile to be a top-five second baseman if things break perfectly.
Encarnacion-Strand is a fun one to dream on too with his gaudy power and the potential to have an every-day role in Cincinnati.
Shaw made the Cubs’ opening day lineup in Tokyo and is a bit of a cheat code right now with his multi-position eligibility. The only question is whether or not he’s ready to hit MLB pitching.
Round 18
18.01 (205): Lucas Erceg, Royals - RP
18.02 (206): Ryan Weathers, Marlins - SP******
18.03 (207): MacKenzie Gore, Nationals - SP
18.04 (208): Josh Jung, Rangers - 3B
18.05 (209): Tommy Edman, Dodgers - OF/SS
18.06 (210): Jackson Jobe, Tigers - SP
18.07 (211): Nico Hoerner, Cubs - 2B
18.08 (212): Nolan Jones, Rockies - OF
18.09 (213): Max Muncy, Dodgers - 3B
18.10 (214): Emiliano Teodo, Rangers - RP/SP
18.11 (215): Yandy Diaz, Rays - 1B
18.12 (216): Jake McCarthy, Diamondbacks - OF
****This round had begun before the news that Weathers would miss four to six weeks with a forearm strain. That’s especially disappointing after his draft stock rose so significantly because of the added velocity and improved fastball shape he’d shown this spring.
Gore feels like a sleeper pick that’s hiding in plain sight. He struck out over 180 batters last season across 166 IP with a 3.90 ERA. Those are all great benchmarks for a pitcher still trying to get himself over the hump.
Jung is in a similar boat. He lost most of his 2024 season to injuries after being a powerful cog in the middle of the Rangers’ lineup on their path to the World Series in 2023. Something like 25 HR and 90 RBI wouldn’t be shocking at all for him.
Edman has become one of my favorite picks late in drafts as well. A lot has been made of Freddie Freeman’s anticipated load management and Mookie Betts’ illness that has the start of his season in question.
With both of them out of the lineup, Edman slotted into the two-hole in their lineup and was in the middle of multiple rallies. He’ll accumulate heaps of counting stats if he maintains a spot high in the order and could soak up lots of playing time as the players around him require more off days than most.
Teodo was the shock of this round. The Rangers have a wide open closer role and of all their potential options, he may have the best stuff with a 100 MPH sinker and electric slider. There’s just no telling when (or if) they add him to their bullpen this season.
Round 19
19.01 (217): Justin Martinez, Diamondbacks - RP
19.02 (218): Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles - 1B
19.03 (219): Alec Burleson, Cardinals - OF
19.04 (220): Max Scherzer, Blue Jays - SP
19.05 (221): Drew Rasmussen, Rays - SP
19.06 (222): Luis Gil, Yankees - SP
19.07 (223): Max Meyer, Marlins - SP
19.08 (224): Nolan Arenado, Cardinals - 3B
19.09 (225): George Springer, Blue Jays - OF
19.10 (226): Maikel Garcia, Royals - 2B/3B
19.11 (227): Jose Berrios, Blue Jays - SP
19.12 (228): JJ Bleday, Athletics - OF
Does Scherzer have one more vintage season left in him? He’d struck out 14 batters in nine spring innings before a thumb injury popped up and sideline him for the past few weeks.
Those types of nagging injuries will often be there for a 40-year-old pitcher. The question with Scherzer is whether or not the quality of his 120 or so innings will be worthy of a roster spot.
Rasmussen has a similar projected workload, albeit for different reasons as he’s back after his third serious elbow surgery. Also like Scherzer, he’s looked good this spring.
Funny enough these two will also pitch in the same (difficult) division and have good not great home parks. It was fascinating to see them go off the board back-to-back given their sneaky similarities.
The same goes for Arenado and Springer. Each has been a mainstay in the first few rounds of drafts for going on a decade and fell off respective cliffs last season. Can either bounce back?
From the little data we have this spring, Arenado’s bat speed has ticked up from 70 MPH last season to over 74 MPH. That would take him from the bottom third of the league to the top 20th percentile.
Round 20
20.01 (229): Nick Lodolo, Reds - SP
20.02 (230): Taj Bradley, Rays - SP
20.03 (231): Jesus Luzardo, Phillies - SP
20.04 (232): Cedric Mullings, Orioles - OF
20.05 (233): Carlos Correa, Twins - SS
20.06 (234): Walker Buehler, Red Sox - SP
20.07 (235): Gleyber Torres, Tigers - 2B
20.08 (236): Ryan Pressly, Cubs - RP
20.09 (237): Justin Verlander, Giants - SP
20.10 (238): Ranger Suarez, Phillies - SP
20.11 (239): Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers - SP
20.12 (240): Nathaniel Lowe, Nationals - 1B
Ah, our final round. What a lovely mix of older, veteran value type picks from this experienced draft room.
Before that heap of boring picks, three young pitchers who hope to get back on track went off the board in Lodolo, Bradley, and Luzardo.
For Lodolo, it’s mostly about staying healthy. His strikeout stuff wasn’t quite back to the same levels as when he broke into the league, but he also walked fewer batters. Sadly, he’ll always be held back by his home park, too.
Bradley still hasn’t found any consistency. His command is iffy and his secondary pitches – splitter, cutter, and curveball – have not measured up to his explosive fastballs. Still, that fastball provides a tremendous starting point and no one will be surprised if (and maybe when) it does click.
Luzardo was my pick here and he’s battled both health and consistency concerns. He’s healthy heading into the season and has sat 96 MPH in his share of abbreviated spring starts. I’ll be watching that number and if he stays at 96 MPH, he could have a solid season in store.
