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Coming into the 2021 season if you had declared that Robbie Ray would win the Cy Young Award in the American League -- or even garner consideration for it -- you’d have likely been laughed out of whatever room you were in.
Even those that bought into his strong Spring Training and thought that finally this would be the year that he improved his command and put it all together were met with snickering and ridicule. Those (myself included) who were bold enough to call his name in fantasy drafts (NFBC Main Event ADP of 260 -- SP 81) were buying for the strikeout upside, knowing full well that Ray would likely be a major drain on the ratios -- especially WHIP.
Entering this season, he owned a career 4.26 ERA and 1.38 WHIP across 842 1/3 innings. He owned an elite K/9 of 11.1 but a cringe-inducing BB/9 of 4.3. The truncated 2020 season wasn’t any better for the 29-year-old southpaw, as he registered a disastrous 6.62 ERA, 1.90 WHIP and -- this is not a misprint -- 7.8 BB/9. Nearly eight walks every nine innings. Even with a K/9 of 11.8, that’s absurd and in no way a recipe for success.
So naturally, most folks were skeptical when Ray rolled into Grapefruit League play and posted a stellar 1.98 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 18/5 K/BB ratio across 13 2/3 innings. There’s no way that he could have drastically improved his command that much and was going to jump into the ranks of the elite starting pitchers in the league, right?
If his first two starts of the season were any indication, the answer was a resounding no. Ray began the year by walking three and striking out three over five innings of two-run ball against the Yankees. Meh. His next time out, he allowed four hits and issued six free passes (while striking out three) over five scoreless innings against the Royals. Some fantasy managers may have thrown in the towel at that point and admitted they had seen enough. Those that did surely regret their decision.
Ray followed up that six walk outing by going four straight starts without issuing a single walk. Zero. He pitched six innings of more in all four and racked up strikeout totals of nine, five, nine and ten. That’ll most certainly play. Over five starts in the month of May he had a K/BB of 40/3 across 29 1/3 innings. He was off and running.[[ad:athena]]
Since that six-walk effort against the Royals, Ray hasn’t issued more than three walks in any of his 22 starts, and he has only walked three on three separate occasions. He entered play on Wednesday with a spectacular 2.79 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 178/36 K/BB ratio over 145 1/3 innings in 24 starts on the season.
Over the last few weeks, he has even started to have his name whispered in the discussion for the American League Cy Young Award. At the end of July he cracked the odds board at +4750 to take home the honor, putting him only behind Gerrit Cole (-113), Carlos Rodon (+245) and Lance Lynn (+325) at the time. Entering this week, he still sat at fourth on that list, though his odds had improved dramatically -- to +1000. Those odds will be even better after Wednesday’s masterpiece.
Going against a high-powered White Sox lineup at the Rogers Centre in Toronto on Wednesday, Ray racked up a season-high 14 strikeouts over seven innings of one-run baseball. He scattered just five hits and one walk on the night, throwing 77 of his 111 pitches for strikes. Ray generated a whopping 24 swinging strikes in the contest -- 17 on his slider and seven on his fastball -- and posted a CSW of 34 percent.. In fact, all but two of the 111 pitches that he threw in the ballgame were fastballs or sliders, mixing in one changeup and one knuckle curve.
Unfortunately, he wound up taking a no-decision in this one as the Jays offense was only able to scratch out one run against Lucas Giolito while Ray was still in the game -- though they finally broke through for two in the eighth to emerge victorious.
Still 9-5 on the season, Ray now boasts a 2.72 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 192/37 K/BB ratio over 152 1/3 innings. That ERA is still a mile behind Lance Lynn (2.20), but does rank second in the American League. His strikeout total is now tops in the American League for the time being, just one ahead of Cole, but 47 ahead of Lynn. Among qualified hurlers, Cole paces the league in WHIP (0.97) while Ray trails right behind him and Lynn (1.05) sits fourth in the league.
Maybe he isn’t the front-runner just yet, but Ray has definitely put himself right in the conversation with Cole and Lynn to be named the league’s top hurler this season. He now has five weeks left to further build his resume and deliver one of the greatest unexpected seasons in recent memory.
Starting Pitchers with an EDGE
Brandon Woodruff - 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 10 K, 29% CSW, 18 swinging strikes
Another day, another dazzling start for the Brewers right-hander. With the victory over the Reds, Woodruff improves to 8-7 on the season and now boasts an outstanding 2.38 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 177/37 K/BB ratio across 151 1/3 innings through 25 starts. He’s squarely in the mix for the National League Cy Young Award and continues to be one of the main reasons why the Brewers have run away with the division title in the National League Central.
Tarik Skubal - 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 10 K, 38% CSW, 17 swinging strikes
The 24-year-old southpaw continued to flash his promise in a losing effort against the Cardinals on Wednesday afternoon, racking up 10 strikeouts over five innings. The only hitter that he couldn’t figure out was Paul Goldschmidt, who belted a pair of solo homers against him. Skubal has been outstanding in the month of August, allowing just four runs over 22 2/3 innings in his four starts (1.59 ERA) with a 27/3 K/BB ratio. On the season as a whole, he now sports a 4.01 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 144/42 K/BB ratio over 128 innings. His arrow is definitely going to be pointing upward heading into the 2022 season.
Walker Buehler - 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 8 K, 30% CSW, 17 swinging strikes
Buehler continued to strengthen his resume for the National League Cy Young Award with another dominant effort in a no-decision against the Padres. Of the 17 whiffs that he generated in the contest, he got at least one on five different offerings in his six-pitch mix. The 27-year-old hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a start since before the All-Star break and now owns a phenomenal 2.02 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 178/42 K/BB ratio across 169 innings.
Hitters with an EDGE
Paul Goldschmidt - 2-for-4, 2 HR (21), 2 RBI, 3 R, BB
Goldschmidt was the only Cardinals hitter who was able to figure out Tarik Skubal in this one, belting a pair of solo home runs off of the Tigers southpaw. He was then intentionally walked in the 10th inning and wound up stealing second base and coming around to score the go-ahead run. In fact, he scored all three of the Cardinals runs in the victory. The 33-year-old slugger is now slashing .282/.349/.471 with 21 long balls, 73 RBI and 10 swipes in what has been another impressive season.
Brendan Rodgers - 3-for-6, HR (10), 2B, 5 RBI, R
Rodgers was one of many offensive heroes in a wild 13-10 victory over the Cubs in extra innings in the second game of Wednesday’s doubleheader. Rodgers opened the scoring with a two-run blast off of Justin Steele in the opening inning, added an RBI single in the sixth to make it 8-5 then capped off the Rockies scoring with a two-run double in the 10th. The 25-year-old is now slashing .289/.344/.474 with 10 long balls and 35 RBI in 70 games this season.
Cedric Mullins - 2-for-4, HR (22), 3 RBI, R
Mullins got the Orioles started with a bang on Wednesday, crushing a leadoff home run off of Shohei Ohtani to lead the Orioles to an unexpected victory over the Angels -- snapping their historic 19-game losing streak. Mullins is still in the midst of a terrific season offensively, slashing .307/.370/.528 with 22 long balls, 45 RBI and 22 stolen bases.
EDGE Priority Pickup
Kolten Wong, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers -- Available in 62% of Yahoo fantasy leagues.
Honestly, I was a bit surprised to see that Wong was available in more than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues. Perhaps it has to do with the couple of stints on the injured list where he was dropped and slipped through the tracks. He has been especially hot as of late though, hitting .327 with three homers, 12 RBI, 10 runs scored and a stolen base over the past two weeks. He’s got 11 homers and nine swipes in 86 games on the season. With the Brewers offense rolling - and Wong functioning as the catalyst at the top -- he should be rostered in more leagues down the stretch.
Closing Time
Jake McGee vs. Mets - 1 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 K (29th save)
As he has done many times this year, McGee made this one interesting. After coming on with a one-run lead to protect, he allowed a one-out single to Jonathan Villar. Brandon Drury then reached on an error and he issued a two-out walk to Brandon Nimmo to load the bases. He battled back though, getting Pete Alonso to line out to second base to end the ballgame. He has now made good on 29 of his 33 save chances while registering a 2.63 ERA and minuscule 0.86 WHIP.
Jordan Romano vs. White Sox - 1 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 K (13th save)
The 28-year-old right-hander has been used in high-leverage situations all season but hasn’t exclusively been the Blue Jays closer. That is, until recently. On Wednesday, Romano racked up his third save in the Jays last five games with a scoreless ninth inning to protect a two-run lead against the White Sox. Romano sports a terrific 2.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 62/20 K/BB ratio over 46 1/3 innings on the season. It looks like he’ll see the bulk of the save chances down the stretch, making him an elite closer option over the final five weeks of the season.
Adam Morgan vs. Rockies - 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 K (1st save)
Just when you start to think that maybe Codi Heuer looks like the favorite for save chances in Chicago, David Ross deploys him in the fifth inning of a seven inning game on Wednesday. Heuer walked away with the win in this one after recording four outs, but it was Morgan who came on to work the seventh to close it out. It looks like it’s going to be a straight up committee situation from here on out, with Heuer, Morgan, Manuel Rodriguez and Rowan Wick all likely to see chances at some point. Speculate here if you have to, but don’t expect any of these options to rack up too many saves over the final five weeks.
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Thursday’s Matchup of the Day
Yu Darvish (SD) vs. Max Scherzer (LAD)
There are some incredibly interesting pitching matchups on Thursday -- including Hyun-Jin Ryu taking on Carlos Rodon in his return to the White Sox rotation -- but the real prize looks to be the matchup between the Dodgers and Padres in San Diego.
Yu Darvish will be making his triumphant return to the Padres rotation after missing a week’s worth of action due to lower back tightness. He allowed six runs over 2 2/3 innings against the Diamondbacks his last time out and now he’ll have to deal with the vaunted Dodgers lineup in a difficult spot as the Padres are battling for their playoff life.
On the other side, Max Scherzer has seemingly fit right in since joining the Dodgers. The 37-year-old hurler is 3-0 with a 2.11 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 31/4 K/BB ratio over 21 1/3 innings through his first four starts with his new club. He’ll look to keep the good times rolling with all eyes in the baseball world on him on Thursday night.
American League Quick Hits: Indians right-hander Triston McKenzie landed on the 10-day injured list with right shoulder fatigue. No timetable has been given yet for a potential return. … Carlos Rodon (shoulder) is expected to return from the injured list to start against the Blue Jays on Thursday. … Matthew Boyd (elbow) is tentatively expected to return to the Tigers rotation on Sunday against the Blue Jays. … Niko Goodrum (groin) is on track to return to the Tigers in early September. … The Angels placed Dylan Bundy on the 10-day IL with a right shoulder strain. They also played Reid Detmers on the IL with no designation given. … Whit Merrifield crushed a go-ahead grand slam in the seventh inning, but it wasn’t enough to lead the Royals past the Astros. … Alex Bregman went 2-for-5 with an RBI and a run scored in his return to the Astros lineup… Brandon Lowe slugged his 30th home run of the season as the Rays defeated the Phillies. … Francisco Mejia crushed a go-ahead three-run homer in the ninth to win that one for the Rays. ...Miguel Sano blasted a 495-foot home run as the Twins beat the Red Sox in extra innings. … Brandon Marsh belted his first career home run and drove in five runs in a losing effort against the Orioles.
National League Quick Hits: The Cardinals placed ace right-hander Jack Flaherty back on the injured list with a right shoulder strain. While there’s no structural damage, this will likely force him to miss the remainder of the season. … Ian Anderson (shoulder) is expected to make his long-awaited return to the Braves rotation on Sunday against the Giants. … Yu Darvish (back) is expected to be activated from the IL to start against the Dodgers on Thursday. … Noah Syndergaard (elbow) will begin a minor league rehab assignment with High-A Brooklyn on Thursday. … Tyler O’Neill (back) sat out his second consecutive game, though he did appear as a pinch hitter. He’s still considered day-to-day. … Ryan Helsley underwent a season-ending procedure on his left knee. … Yadier Molina confirmed Wednesday that 2022 will be his final season. … Kwang-Hyun Kim is expected to return to the Cardinals rotation following the injury to Jack Flaherty. … Willson Contreras (knee) is expected to require a minor league rehab assignment before returning to the Cubs. … The Pirates placed JT Brubaker on the 10-day IL with a right thumb contusion. … Tejay Antone was placed back on the 10-day IL with a right forearm strain. … Johnny Cueto allowed just one unearned run over 4 2/3 innings on Wednesday in his return to the Giants rotation. … Zack Wheeler surrendered seven runs (five earned) over eight-plus innings in a loss to the Rays. … Blake Snell piled up 10 strikeouts over 7 2/3 innings of one-run baseball in a tough-luck no-decision against the Dodgers. … Connor Joe slugged a grand slam as the Rockies took the nightcap of their doubleheader against the Cubs. … Edward Cabrera allowed three runs on four hits over 6 1/3 innings in his big league debut against the Nationals. … Josiah Gray struck out seven over six innings in a no-decision against the Marlins. … Luis Castillo fanned six over 6 1/3 innings of two-run baseball in a losing effort against the Brewers… Bryse Wilson struck out seven over five scoreless innings in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks.
