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First Base Outliers: Joey Votto

Joey Votto

Joey Votto

David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Player Bissell Boyer Crawford Henderson Henry Johnson Montanez Pouliot Short Shovein Silva Williams Staff Composite
Joey Votto 11 7 15 15 7 12 12 13 14 7 20 14 13 12.25

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Drew Silva had Joey Votto 20. The composite ranking was 12.25.

Votto tapped into the Fountain of Youth last year and delivered a .938 OPS with 36 home runs and 99 RBI in 129 games before commanding down-ballot votes in the National League MVP balloting. The batted-ball data supports those numbers -- this wasn’t some stroke of luck -- but I think it’s fair to wonder whether his fantastic 2021 will go down as a late-career outlier. Between the 2018-2020 seasons, a span of nearly 1,500 plate appearances, Votto batted .265 with an .803 OPS while averaging only 18 home runs and 65 RBI for every 162 games played. So, yes, he did flip the aging curve for a moment, but is that really sustainable as he approaches age 39? The larger sample size -- and the forever undefeated Father Time -- would suggest that it’s not. In fantasy baseball, you typically want to avoid paying up for past production, especially with regard to veteran hitters. Also of concern is that the Reds seem to be considering a rebuild of sorts and probably would have already traded away a number of big-name players had this offseason progressed without a work stoppage. Votto is only getting older, and his supporting cast could be increasingly diminished over the course of the 2022 campaign. – Drew Silva (@drewsilv)

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