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This past weekend, I got to experience the thrill of competing in the NFBC Main Event in Las Vegas for the first time in my life. It wasn’t my first time competing in the Main Event – I’ve been playing it since 2009 (with a few years off from 2016 - 2019) – and have drafted live plenty of times in Chicago, but drafting live in Vegas is a completely different animal.
Let me start off by saying that all of the hype surrounding the event and the weekend is completely justified. I’m fully aware that the cost is prohibitive for some, but sharing the same space with so many passionate and like-minded individuals was just unbelievable. Being able to meet and interact with other industry analysts, Twitter personalities, podcast hosts and NFBC Hall of Famers that I’ve known for years online – some a decade or more – and to just chat with them and share our love of fantasy baseball was truly an experience that I’ll never forget.
I competed in two Main Event leagues while I was there – one on Thursday (3/24) which was the first Main Event drafts of the season and the other on Saturday (3/26). This recap is going to focus on just that first team, Main Event #1. There were two leagues drafting in a conference room at the Bellagio on Thursday afternoon and the energy around the room was electric. Countless other players and analysts that had already arrived in Vegas popped into the draft room before, during and after these drafts just to get a look at the boards to see the movers and shakers in Average Draft Position (ADP) now that the draft season had reached its signature event.
Five days before this event – before flying out to Vegas – we received our league assignment and draft spot for Main Event #1. Let’s just say that I wasn’t entirely thrilled with where we were going to be picking from. I strongly preferred the top half of the draft – as evidenced by how we set our KDS (Kentucky Derby Style) preferences beforehand. For those unfamiliar, it gives each manager a chance to rank which draft positions they prefer from 1-15. Then, as each manager is randomly selected, they are assigned their highest available preference remaining. In this case, we wound up with our 10th ranked preference, which happened to be pick #13.
When developing a plan for this particular draft, I mapped out dozens of different scenarios to get a good feel of which options I liked best in each particular round and to get a better feel for in which areas of the draft I planned to target each position. Some positions I was fine waiting on until later in the draft, others there were certain pockets of value that I wanted to attack. No matter how many times I went through this exercise though, one plan in particular continued to stand out.
The biggest reason that I didn’t want to draft from the backend of the first round, was the fact that I thought there wasn’t that big of a difference between the hitters available at the 1/2 turn versus the hitters available at the 3/4 turn. In fact, many of the hitters going where we’d be picking in rounds three and four, I actually preferred straight up over many of the options in rounds one and two. Historically, I’ve always been someone that has focused on pitching early in my drafts – both starters and closers. This year, however, is the first time in several years that I wasn’t in love with the starting pitching options available in the first two rounds. Sure, the top end is great – and if Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes or Jacob deGrom were to fall to me at pick 13, that’s likely how I would start this team. The likelihood of that seemed incredibly low though, and I needed to have a contingency plan in place if that didn’t happen.
We all know that closers have soared up fantasy draft boards this year – perhaps even to heights that we have never seen before. Many in the industry chalked up the rise – or at least part of it – to the fact that so many early drafts were of the Draft Champions, or Draft and Hold variety – meaning that there were no free agent moves in-season for managers to get saves if they missed out on them during their drafts. That – combined with the lockout and the lack of information that we received for most of the off-season – really pushed up the draft prices of the few elite closing options who were locked into their roles. With so many teams now taking on a committee approach in the ninth inning, landing a true workhorse there is extremely beneficial.
The other benefit of elite closers is that (in theory) you don’t have to waste a large portion of your FAAB budget chasing saves throughout the season. Combine that with the added draft capital that you get from not having to use any speculative late-round picks on potential closers – and the bench spots that you save in-season from having to carry those types of arms – and crazy ideas were starting to brew in my head.
Throughout the draft season, I had been taking the best of the best – Josh Hader and Liam Hendriks – wherever and whenever I could. Usually, that was at the 2/3 turn if I was drafting from the top half of the draft. What about if you’re drafting from the backend though? Those top two options had settled comfortably with ADP’s in the middle to back of the second round in 15-team formats. That would mean that in order to get one, I would have to pull the trigger early in the second round. If I didn’t, there’s also a good chance that the entire next tier of closers would be gone by the time the draft got back to me in the third round.
In my TGFBI draft, I was similarly unlucky in my KDS draw and wound up with the 14th pick. I decided that was as good of a time as any to try out something a bit unorthodox and see how it played out. There, I did the unthinkable and started my draft with Hendriks and Hader in the first two rounds. Building an offense – and a starting pitching staff – after that though proved to be more difficult than I had imagined. In that draft, I followed with three hitters in Tyler O’Neill, J.T. Realmuto and Brandon Lowe then hammered starting pitching with Logan Webb, Yu Darvish and Justin Verlander in the next three rounds. Overall, the pitching worked out well, but I boxed myself in on the offensive side due to the fact that I was chasing speed the entire draft. I wound up feeling like I needed to get 8-10 stolen bases out of every hitter the rest of the way and it greatly limited what I was able to accomplish overall. When reflecting after that draft, I wished that I had taken Adalberto Mondesi in round three or four instead of Realmuto. That would have provided me the flexibility on offense throughout the rest of the draft and opened up the player pool more.
Fast forward now back to this first Main Event draft. I had still been toying with the idea of once again starting with a pair of elite closers. If doing so, this time the plan would be to follow it up with Mondesi and a dynamic power/speed combo like Tyler O’Neill. From there, it would then need two starting pitchers in rounds five and six – an area of the draft where we had identified and targeted eight or nine pitchers that could fall to that spot and fit this plan perfectly. As soon as we drew that 13th spot in KDS, I laid out this plan to my co-managers, basically telling them that they had five days to try to talk me out of doing it. No one was able to come back with a good argument for why not to do it, and the more we dug in, the more that we liked the strategy.
In addition to the closers and mapping out those first six rounds, there were a few other things that we absolutely wanted to accomplish in this draft. I’m a big proponent of drafting the elite catching options in this format, as it’s a 15-team league in which you start two of them. I believe that the advantage that those top 6-7 guys give you in at-bats and counting stats is massive and something that goes underlooked and underappreciated by the masses. I also had a couple of mid and late-round targets that I wanted to target aggressively – shooting ahead of their previous maximum picks to ensure that we landed them. That list included Akil Baddoo, Ranger Suarez, Riley Greene and Frank Schwindel. Justin Verlander was also a big target of ours, though there were serious doubts that he would last until the 5/6 turn which is where we had hoped to take him.
Draft Review
Round 1, Pick 13 (13): Josh Hader - The start of this draft played out as expected, with Trea Turner, Jose Ramirez, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette being selected with the first five picks. Jacob deGrom was the first pitcher off the board at pick six. There was at least some hope that Gerrit Cole or Corbin Burnes could fall to us at pick 13, but they were taken with picks eight and 10 respectively. When going into the draft, the one hitter that we thought maybe we’d consider there would have been Luis Robert, but he was snagged at pick nine. The top hitter on our board was Kyle Tucker, but we opted to go with the bold strategy that we had laid out and made Hader our first pick.
Round 2, Pick 3 (18): Liam Hendriks - There was at least some consideration given to Kyle Tucker if he would have fallen back to us here, but he was taken at pick 17. Brandon Woodruff was still on the board and deserved a look as well, but we opted to stick to the plan and start with the Pocket 9’s in Hader and Hendriks. The venerable Paul Sporer was sitting next to me at the draft table and was live Tweeting during our draft, and the shockwave of the Hader/Hendriks combo quickly spread through the fantasy baseball community.
Round 3, Pick 13 (43): Adalberto Mondesi - This one was a bit of a tricky spot for us, as if Mondesi went off the board earlier in the third round it would have left us reeling a bit and trying to force a pair of power/speed combos to make the overall draft plan work. Tyler O’Neill, who we loved as well, was still on the board here, but we thought there was a decent chance he’d make it back to us in round four. There were two surprising names that we also liked that were still on the board here in Teoscar Hernandez and Salvador Perez. Pitching, as it so often is in the Main Event, was already flying off the board with Logan Webb (31), Freddy Peralta (32) and Max Fried (37) long gone before our pick. That also gave us pause about what would be there at the 5/6 turn. We strongly considered pivoting and starting with Hernandez or Perez and then O’Neill, but ultimately decided to stick to the pre-draft plan. Also of note, we weren’t simply planning on locking in Mondesi for 60 stolen bases and planning to ignore the category for the rest of the draft. With his injury history and extremely risky profile, that would have been a fool’s errand. The plan was still to draft plenty of speed to compliment him, to where if he were to give us half a season and turn in 30 bags, we’d beat our target.
Round 4, Pick 3 (48): Tyler O’Neill - To our surprise, both Hernandez and Perez were still on the board when it came back around to us, and both received some consideration. With how quickly starting pitching was being pushed up the board, we also debated pushing Verlander up to this spot to ensure that we’d get our ace. In the end though, we all loved the power/speed combo and the upside that O’Neill possessed and were more than happy to be able to stick to the plan through four rounds.
Round 5, Pick 13 (73): Joe Musgrove - As I mentioned earlier, there had been a group of eight or so starting pitchers that we were looking at, hoping at least two of them would make it to us at the 5/6 turn. Verlander went shortly after our O’Neill pick at 52 overall. Dylan Cease and Lance Lynn also came off the board before the end of the fourth round while Salvador Perez fell all the way to pick 60 and was a serious coup for Team 1. When it came back around to us, we were a bit shocked to see Joe Musgrove still on the board and he basically became an autopick for us. There were still two other names from our group of eight on the board at that time – Yu Darvish and Trevor Rogers – and the hope was that at least one of them would survive the turn.
Round 6, Pick 3 (78): Trevor Rogers - As luck would have it, Rogers did make it back through to us – even with three pitchers (Darvish, Frankie Montas and Kevin Gausman) going in the four picks between us at the turn. With Musgrove and Rogers locked in, combined with the two elite closers and the power and speed that we hoped to get from O’Neill and Mondesi, everything had gone just about as well as could have been expected through the first six rounds. Now we had the flexibility to take the best of what fell to us in rounds seven and eight.
Round 7, Pick 13 (103): Brandon Lowe - It’s nice when a gift falls into your lap, and that’s exactly what we think happened to us in round seven. With Mondesi in tow, we didn’t necessarily need plus speed from this pick and he helped to make up the power that we sacrificed with the Royals’ speedster. In the 13 Main Event drafts that have been completed thus far, Lowe’s ADP sits at pick 79, with our pick 103 setting the max.
Round 8, Pick 3 (108): Daulton Varsho - As I noted previously, I prefer to dominate the catcher position if I’m able to. The way this particular draft played out, we had to pass on Salvador Perez in Round 3 and then nearly had J.T. Realmuto fall to us in round five (though we still may not have been able to take him). My next favorite target at the position though was Daulton Varsho and it was extremely surprising to see him on the board in round eight. Again we were able to set a max pick for the first 13 mains by grabbing this dynamic backstop.
Round 9, Pick 13 (133): Willson Contreras - Admittedly, I may have gotten a bit too cute here by locking in a second catcher to go along with the two elite closers that we already took, but I just couldn’t pass up the value in this spot. Contreras represented the last of the true difference makers at the catcher position on my board, and like Varsho we were able to grab him at his max pick through the first 13 Main Events. Starting pitching continued to fly off the board, and several options that we were looking at for this pair of picks (Luis Garcia, Mike Clevinger) went before us in round nine.
Round 10, Pick 3 (138): Josh Bell - We weren’t thrilled with any of the SP3 options on the board at this spot, though we did give serious thought to Patrick Sandoval. We really liked the options in the outfield – namely Akil Baddoo, Eddie Rosario and Avisail Garcia – but felt pretty confident that one of them would fall back to us in round 11. The first base position had been pretty well picked over by this point and we felt that Josh Bell was the last name remaining in his tier, so we pulled the trigger on him here.
There’s a 10-minute break after the first 10 rounds for everyone to regroup. At this point we have our two elite closers, two starting pitchers, two stud catchers, and then one outfielder, first baseman, second baseman and third baseman. Heading into the next 10 rounds, we wanted to add another pair of starting pitchers sooner rather than later. We needed to build our outfield – though rounds 11-15 is an area that we had identified as a place we wanted to target the position. We also wanted to aggressively target Ranger Suarez, Riley Greene and Frank Schwindel in rounds 12, 14 and 15 respectively.
Round 11, Pick 13 (163): Zac Gallen - As good as we had felt going into the break, things didn’t go nearly as smoothly coming out of it. All three of the outfielders that we were targeting in this spot – Baddoo, Rosario and Garcia – were gone by the time the draft came back around to us, with Garcia going the pick directly in front of us. Patrick Sandoval who we considered in 10 was also gone. That left us with a couple of options, either drop down even further on our list to secure our second outfielder, or to take on more risk than we wanted to at SP3. In hindsight, I’d probably have preferred to push up the outfielder. I’m not thrilled to be taking on a third starter with this much injury risk, but his ceiling helps to bring legitimacy to our staff.
Round 12, Pick 3 (168): Ranger Suarez - This is someone that I wanted all along in this spot and a player that I was thrilled to secure here. I’m a big believer in his overall skill set and think that while he won’t be able to replicate the immaculate ERA, that he’ll function as a front-line starter once again in 2022. Adding Gallen and Suarez to Musgrove and Rogers makes me feel much better about our staff as a whole. The big concern now is that we still only have one outfielder. The hope is that Andrew Benintendi or Tommy Pham make it back around.
Round 13, Pick 13 (193): Robbie Grossman - We whiffed on Pham and Benintendi, so were forced to settle for the next best thing in Robbie Grossman. Coming off of a surprise 20/20 season and expected to hit near the top of an improving Tigers lineup, we believe that Grossman should be able to deliver another 15/15 season with plus counting stats. That’ll more than suffice from this spot.
Round 14, Pick 3 (198): Riley Greene - I’m the type of drafter that always preaches to get your guys, regardless of where you have to do it, and this was certainly no exception. Perhaps I was a bit too aggressive in this instance though, as we set the min pick on the talented Tigers outfielder. Overall through the first 13 Main Event drafts, his ADP sits at 241. We would have had to wait until pick 223 if we gambled that he makes it back to our next pair. If he’s with the club on Opening Day and produces as I expect him to, it’ll all be a moot point.
Round 15, Pick 13 (223): Frank Schwindel - By pushing Greene up into round 14, we actually had to gamble a little bit that Schwindel would fall back to us here. I was thrilled that he did, even though we wound up setting another min pick through the first 13 Mains. Of all the drafts that I have done this season, he’s the player that I own the most shares of at 83.3% (10 out of 12).
Round 16, Pick 3 (228): Eugenio Suarez - At this point in the draft we still didn’t have a shortstop and the options were running thin. I’ve always been a big believer in Suarez and think that the player we saw in the final month of the 2021 season is still there. He’s got dual eligibility at SS and 3B – which will come in handy if/when Mondesi inevitably heads to the injured list. The move to Seattle does ding his power outlook a bit, but overall I think this was a nice fit here.
Round 17, Pick 13 (253): Carlos Carrasco - Carrasco is another pitcher that I’m extremely high on this season and someone that I have targeted as an SP5 in many drafts. He’s shown the ability to be elite in the past and as long as he’s able to stay healthy he should deliver ample profit from this spot in the draft. Here’s to hoping he can correct whatever plagued him during the first inning of every start during the 2021 campaign.
Round 18, Pick 3 (258): Wil Myers - Myers is a player that I’ve always loved due to his combination of power and speed, and after the Padres missed out on signing all of their top free agent targets, he should once again be slotted for everyday at-bats in the middle of the lineup. I think he’s a terrific value in this spot and more than happy to land him as an OF4.
Round 19, Pick 13 (283): Jeremy Pena - This is another case of me really wanting a particular player but not being entirely sure how far that I would have to reach to get him. I’ve been a firm believer all off-season that Pena was going to get his chance to start at shortstop for the Astros (as long as they didn’t re-sign Correa) and it looks like that’s going to be the case. He has even been hitting out of the leadoff spot in recent spring training games, and if that sticks it would be an even bigger boon to his value. He’s got a bit of power and a bit of speed, and more importantly is a phenomenal defender. As long as he hits even a little bit, the glove should be enough to keep him in the lineup.
Round 20, Pick 3 (288): Victor Robles - This is a player that I just can’t seem to quit. Remember, he hit 17 homers and swiped 28 bases as a 22-year-old back in 2019 and is entering the season as the Nationals everyday center fielder. Sure, he’s likely to hit at the bottom of the lineup, but the power and speed combination still plays. If he winds up looking like the player that he has been the last two seasons, it’s an easy drop. It’s hard to find this kind of upside though – particularly in the speed department – this late in the draft.
At this point we got a break for dinner (15 minutes I believe?) and had time to regroup before attacking the final 10 rounds of the draft. By this point, we have secured five starting pitchers, two closers, our full infield including middle and corner, and all five outfielders. As far as our 23 position starting roster, we’re just missing two pitchers and our utility spot. Going into the final 10 rounds, our goals were to hammer everyday at-bats in the first five picks – and preferably to get a few players with multi-position eligibility. Getting as many at-bats as possible can cure many ills. We also needed to build starting pitching depth and wanted to take a few shots on high-upside fliers that could crack the Opening Day roster but would also be easy drops if they didn’t.
Round 21, Pick 13 (313): Zach Plesac - Plesac was a popular riser up draft boards at this time last year after dominating during the truncated 2020 season – going around the sixth round in Main Event drafts. He has fallen almost back to the reserve rounds after his poor 2021 campaign, but I believe there’s still a worthwhile arm here.
Round 22, Pick 3 (318): Yoshi Tsutsugo - Count me as a believer in what we saw out of Tsutsugo once he finally got everyday at-bats once he landed with the Pirates late during the 2021 season. He’s seemingly locked into a spot in the middle of the Pirates lineup and he carries 1B/OF eligibility. Everyday at-bats, premium lineup spot and intriguing upside? Sign me up.
Round 23, Pick 13 (343): Mike Moustakas - With Adalberto Mondesi carrying significant injury risk as our third baseman, grabbing another full-time guy who has eligibility at the position seemed like a good idea. The 33-year-old slugger possesses the type of power upside that’s very difficult to find at this point in the draft.
Round 24, Pick 3 (348): Josh Harrison - Another guy that we expect to get full-time – or near full-time at-bats for the White Sox. Harrison carries three positions of eligibility (2B/3B/OF) and really strengthens our bench and our ability to add at-bats with the midweek hitter changes.
Round 25, Pick 13 (373): Matt Manning - There’s no denying that Manning’s first exposure to the big leagues didn’t go well in 2021, but he’s locked into a spot in the Tigers’ Opening Day rotation and it wasn’t long ago that he was one of the most dominant pitching prospects in all of baseball. The increased velocity this spring is also very intriguing.
Round 26, Pick 3 (378): Willie Calhoun - Grabbing another depth outfielder who we expect to have full-time at-bats and possesses interesting upside. I could see Calhoun getting cut early in the season if we need a roster spot or if he gets off to a slow start, but I’ll take a shot on the talent here.
Round 27, Pick 13 (403): Mitch Keller - I’ll be honest, we had considered Keller at both the 23/24 turn and again at the 25/26 turn. To see him fall back here again was very surprising and we couldn’t pass on him a third time. This wound up being the latest that he fell in any of the first 13 Main Event drafts, where he averaged pick 326 and went as high as pick 260.
Round 28, Pick 3 (408): CJ Abrams - Abrams was a target of mine heading into the draft. He has been incredibly impressive so far this spring and there’s at least a small chance that the Padres let him crack the Opening Day roster in a starting role with Fernando Tatis Jr. sidelined. If he does – and the news is announced during this week – he’d go at least 10 rounds higher in drafts over the weekend. If not, he’s an easy drop.
Round 29, Pick 13 (433): Matt Brash - Same thinking here as we had with Abrams, though Brash seems increasingly likely to crack the Mariners Opening Day roster. The strikeout upside here is tremendous and I was very excited to land him this late in the draft.
Round 30, Pick 3 (438): Rich Hill - Most of the targets that I had for round 30 were already off the board, Hill was simply the best of what was remaining. With a FAAB period coming up on Sunday – and the knowledge that we’ll have at that point regarding team’s starting rotations for the first week of the season – it’s very possible that we wind up dropping Hill to pick up a better streaming option for the first or second scoring period.
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So to wrap it up, here’s what the roster looks like coming out of the draft:
C: Daulton Varsho, Willson Contreras
1B: Josh Bell
2B: Brandon Lowe
SS: Eugenio Suarez
CI: Frank Schwindel
MI: Jeremy Pena
OF: Tyler O’Neill, Robbie Grossman, Riley Greene, Wil Myers, Victor Robles
UTIL: Yoshi Tsutsugo
P: Joe Musgrove, Trevor Rogers, Zac Gallen, Ranger Suarez, Carlos Carrasco, Matt Manning, Zach Plesac, Josh Hader, Liam Hendriks
Bench: Mike Moustakas, Josh Harrison, Willie Calhoun, CJ Abrams, Mitch Keller, Matt Brash, Rich Hill
Overall, I’d say I’m very pleased with how the draft turned out and with how we were able to execute our draft plan. The one obvious weakness on this team looks to be batting average, and is something that we’ll need to manage to the best of our ability throughout the season. The backend starting pitching also feels a bit light overall, though if one of Keller, Manning or Brash hits the way that I think they could, that may not be as big of a deal.
Ultimately, the overall upside of this team may depend on the health of Adalberto Mondesi. If he’s able to avoid the injured list and approaches his ceiling, the sky could be the limit for this squad. Similarly, if both elite closers are able to avoid the injured list and keep their jobs for the duration of the season, the added FAAB and roster flexibility alone will be massive benefits and allow us to fill any holes that may arise.
Thanks for reading and following along! As always, feel free to reach out on Twitter (@DaveShovein) with your thoughts, opinions and critiques of this team and the thought process that went into this draft.
